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Races · house · 2026 · Tennessee
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Tennessee house

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Likely DD +12.5 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsLast poll 154d agoMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
84% Cohen (D)
16% (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +12.5 · 80% CI R+3.6 → D+28.6 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.6%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 14¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 84% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+23) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+12.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+3.6 (10th pctile) to D+28.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 84% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +12.5
80% CI: R +3.6 → D +28.6 · win prob 84%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +44.9
80% CI D +34.5 → D +50.7
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +9.9
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 14¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
10¢15¢20¢25¢30¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Democratic Party win the TN-09 House seat?”
14¢81¢-1¢—+0

Endorsements · 5 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
5Cohen · 100%
DSteve Cohen5 endorsers
Most recent · London Lamar · 2026-05-01
Organizations4
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 1Local 0

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-11-14
Steve CohenOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$658.6K
Disburse
$395.3K
Cash on hand
$2.0M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.2K
D side
$1.2K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
—
For / against split
For Pearson $1.2K

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R4
Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe R
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 14, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 5, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 3, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-11-14
Endorsements39 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks