Democratic primary · August 6, 2026
Tennessee house Democratic primary
Field of 2 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
82
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (19.3pp).
Forecast CI width64
19.3pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution64 / 100
Measured19.3pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 1 poll + fundamentals1Steve CohenStephen Ira Cohen is an American attorney and politician serving as the U.S. representative from Tennessee's 9th congressional district, a m…
2Justin PearsonJustin Jamal Pearson is an American activist and politician. He is a member of the Tennessee House of Representatives representing the 86th …
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Cohen | Pearson | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2 | Data for Progress | 354 · LV | 45 | 44 | +1 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 37 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetJustin Pearson · 32Steve Cohen · 5
DJustin Pearson32 endorsers
Most notable · David Hogg · former vice chair of the Democratic National Committee (2025)
Elected officials21
Federal 7State 13Local 0
Elected officials · 21
- David Hogg · former vice chair of the Democratic National Committee (2025)
- Bernie Sanders · U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–present)
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · NY-14 (2019–present)
- Delia Ramirez · IL-03 (2023–present)
- Rashida Tlaib · MI-12 (2023–present), MI-13 (2019–2023)
- Aftyn Behn · state representative from the 51st district (2023–present)
- Ayanna Pressley · MA-07 (2019-present)
- Bob Freeman · state representative from the 56th district (2019–present)
- Charlane Oliver · state representative from the 19th district (2023–present)
- Gloria Johnson · state representative from the 90th district (2013–present)
- Jason Powell · state representative from the 53rd district (2013–present)
- Joe Towns · state representative from the 84th district (1995–present)
- Joe Towns, Jr. · state representative from the 84th district (1995–present)
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017-present)
- Ronnie Glynn · state representative from the 67th district (2023–present)
- Sam McKenzie · state representative from the 15th district (2021–present)
- Shaundelle Brooks · state representative from the 60th district (2025–present)
- Summer Lee · PA-12 (2023-present)
- Torrey Harris · state representative from the 91st district (2021–present)
- Vincent Dixie · state representative from the 24th district (2019–present)
- Yusuf Hakeem · state representative from the 28th district (2019–present)
Organizations10
Organizations · 10
- Indivisible
- Justice Democrats
- Leaders We Deserve
- MoveOn
- Our Revolution
- PAL PAC
- Sunrise Movement
- The Collective PAC
- Track AIPAC
- Working Families Party
Other1
Other · 1
- Indivisible Memphis
DSteve Cohen5 endorsers
Most recent · London Lamar · 2026-05-01
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- J Street
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- London Lamar · state senator from the 33rd district (2022–present) (entered race in May 2026)
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2025-11-14Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-11-14
Endorsements39 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks