Democratic primary · August 18, 2026
Florida Governor Democratic primary
Field of 2 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
70
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (19.4pp).
Forecast CI width65
19.4pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution65 / 100
Measured19.4pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity75
2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution75 / 100
Measured2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 2 polls + fundamentals1David JollyDavid Jolly ( Democratic Party ) is running for election for Governor of Florida . He declared candidacy for the Democratic primary schedule…
2Jerry DemingsJerry L. Demings is an American politician and former law enforcement officer serving as the fifth mayor of Orange County, Florida since 201…
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 12 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Jolly | Demings | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 26 | Change Research | 542 · LV | 42 | 27 | +15 |
| May 15, 26 | Change Research | — · unknown | 42 | 27 | +15 |
| Apr 1, 26 | Emerson College | 362 · LV | 21 | 10 | +11 |
| Mar 30, 26 | Emerson College | 362 · LV | 21 | 10 | +11 |
| Feb 26, 26 | James Madison Institute | 471 · RV | 31 | 23 | +8 |
| Feb 21, 26 | Targoz Market Research | 471 · RV | 31 | 23 | +8 |
| Feb 19, 26 | The Public Sentiment Institute | — · unknown | 22 | 16 | +6 |
| Jan 14, 26 | Mason-Dixon | 400 · RV | 23 | 19 | +4 |
| Jan 12, 26 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 400 · RV | 23 | 19 | +4 |
| Dec 2, 25 | Public Policy Polling | 616 · LV | 22 | 22 | +0 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 62 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetDavid Jolly · 36Jerry Demings · 26
DDavid Jolly36 endorsers
Most notable · Lori Berman · minority leader of the Florida Senate (2025–present) from SD-31 (2018–present)
Elected officials36
Federal 7State 21Local 6
Elected officials · 36
- Lori Berman · minority leader of the Florida Senate (2025–present) from SD-31 (2018–present)
- Nan Rich · Broward County commissioner from the 1st district (2016–present) and former minority leader (2010–2012) from SD-34 (2004–2012)
- Brian Nathan · SD-14 (2026–present)
- Dan Daley · HD-96 (2019–present)
- Debra Tendrich · HD-92 (2020–present)
- Emily Gregory · HD-87 (2026–present)
- Kelly Skidmore · HD-89 (2024–present)
- Kevin Chambliss · HD-117 (2020–present)
- Mack Bernard · SD-24 (2024–present)
- Michael Gottlieb · HD-102 (2018–present)
- Mitch Rosenwald · HD-98 (2024–present)
- Rob Long · HD-90 (2025–present)
- Robin Bartleman · HD-103 (2020–present)
- Shevrin Jones · SD-34 (2020–present)
- Tina Polsky · SD-30 (2020–present)
- Tracie Davis · SD-05 (2022–present)
- Alex Sink · former Chief Financial Officer of Florida (2007–2011) and nominee for governor in 2010
- Allen Boyd · former FL-02 (1997–2011)
- Amy Mercado · Orange County property appraiser (2021–present) and former HD-48 (2016–2020)
- Angelo Castillo · mayor of Pembroke Pines (2024–present)
- Anne Gannon · Palm Beach County tax collector (2006–present) and former HD-86 (2000–2006)
- Barbara Pariente · former chief justice (2004–2006) of the Supreme Court of Florida (1997–2019)
- Betty Castor · former education commissioner of Florida (1987–1994)
- Daniella Levine Cava · mayor of Miami-Dade County (2020–present)
- Dave Aronberg · former State attorney for the Fifteenth Judicial Circuit Court of Florida (2013–2025)
- Dean Trantalis · mayor of Fort Lauderdale (2018–present)
- Donna Shalala · former secretary of health and human services (1993–2001) and FL-27 (2019–2021)
- Eric Smith · former education commissioner of Florida (2007–2011) (Republican)
- Gwen Graham · former FL-02 (2015–2017) and 2018 gubernatorial candidate (candidate's running mate)
- Joe Geller · Miami-Dade County Public Schools board member from the 3rd district (2024–present) and former HD-100 (2014–2022)
- Karen Thurman · former FL-05 (1993–2003)
- Lamar Fisher · Broward County commissioner from the 4th district (2018–present)
- Larry Smith · former FL-16 (1983–1993)
- Patrick Murphy · former FL-18 (2013–2017)
- Ron Klein · former FL-22 (2007–2011)
- Steven Geller · Broward County commissioner from the 5th district (2016–present) and former SD-31 (2003–2009)
DJerry Demings26 endorsers
Most notable · Buddy Dyer · mayor of Orlando (2003–present) and former Florida Senate Minority Leader (1998–2000) from the 14th district (1992–2002)
Elected officials23
Federal 5State 15Local 2
Elected officials · 23
- Buddy Dyer · mayor of Orlando (2003–present) and former Florida Senate Minority Leader (1998–2000) from the 14th district (1992–2002)
- Bob Butterworth · former attorney general of Florida (1987–2002)
- Darren Soto · FL-09 (2017–present)
- Darryl Rouson · SD-16 (2016–present)
- Dianne Hart · HD-63 (2018–present)
- Johanna López · HD-43 (2022–present)
- Kristen Arrington · SD-25 (2024–present)
- LaVon Bracy Davis · SD-15 (2025–present)
- Leonard Spencer · HD-45 (2024–present)
- Michele Rayner · HD-62 (2020–present)
- RaShon Young · HD-40 (2025–present)
- Rita Harris · HD-44 (2022–present)
- Yvonne Hayes Hinson · HD-21 (2020–present)
- Al Lawson · former FL-05 (2017–2023)
- Belvin Perry · former chief judge of the 9th juidicial circuit (1989–2014)
- Bobby Powell · Palm Beach County commissioner from the 7th district (2024–present)
- Ed Narain · former HD-61 (2014–2016)
- Gary Siplin · former SD-19 (2002–2012)
- John Mina · sheriff of Orange County (2018–present)
- Kendrick Meek · former FL-17 (2003–2011)
- Tony Hill · former SD-01 (2002–2011)
- Val Demings · former FL-10 (2017–2023) (candidate's spouse)
- Vic Torres · SD-25 (2016–2024)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- National Baptist Convention, USA
- Omega Psi Phi · PAC
Other1
Other · 1
- Victor Torres · SD-25 (2016–2024)
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing —No FEC committee filings yet for the Democratic primary candidates. Most primary candidates file quarterly; if the primary is recent the data may take a few weeks to appear.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
103 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles103
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.06
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.05 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.06
Week-over-weekshift +0.05 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 6%
Neutral 94%
6% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets6%
Neutral94%
R-leaning outlets0%
6% of outlets classified by editorial lean
F
Sen. Jason Brodeur endorses Byron Donalds for Florida governor
T
DeSantis allies break away, endorse Byron Donalds for Florida governor
W
Absent frontrunner Byron Donalds dominates Florida GOP governor debate he skipped
P
A Jolly campaign in Florida amid an angry Democratic summer
C
Republican gubernatorial candidates clash during online debate as Donalds skips event
L
Republican candidates take aim at each other in Florida governor’s debate
T
If Florida’s GOP debate for governor has no Byron Donalds, does it count?
M
Byron Donalds’ front-runner wall grows with Blaise Ingoglia endorsement
M
A pro-AI group spent $500K on ads for Byron Donalds using controversial media firm
M
Airbnb gives $1 million to Byron Donalds as rentals remain a Suncoast flashpoint
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 12deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements173 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks