Democratic primary · August 11, 2026
Connecticut Governor Democratic primary
Field of 1 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
51
Medium uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (12.1pp).
Forecast CI width40
12.1pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution40 / 100
Measured12.1pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity63
3 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution63 / 100
Measured3 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 8 polls + fundamentals1Ned LamontEdward Miner Lamont Jr. ( / l ə ˈ m ɒ n t / lə- MONT ; born January 3, 1954) is an American politician and businessman serving since 2019 as…
2Josh Elliott
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 9 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lamont | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 26 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 286 · LV | 53 | — |
| Jun 22, 26 | University of New Hampshire | 286 · LV | 53 | — |
| May 28, 26 | Change Research | 887 · LV | 58 | — |
| Apr 22, 26 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 179 · LV | 52 | — |
| Apr 19, 26 | University of New Hampshire | 177 · LV | 52 | — |
| Feb 23, 26 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 174 · LV | 57 | — |
| Feb 15, 26 | University of New Hampshire | 174 · LV | 57 | — |
| Nov 23, 25 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 235 · LV | 55 | — |
| Nov 16, 25 | University of New Hampshire | 235 · LV | 55 | — |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 23 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetNed Lamont · 23
DNed Lamont23 endorsers
Most notable · William Tong · attorney general of Connecticut (2019–present)
Elected officials14
Federal 7State 2Local 4
Elected officials · 14
- William Tong · attorney general of Connecticut (2019–present)
- Jahana Hayes · CT-05 (2019–present)
- Jim Himes · CT-04 (2009–present)
- Joe Courtney · CT-02 (2007–present)
- John Larson · CT-01 (1999–present)
- Rosa DeLauro · CT-03 (1991–present)
- Arunan Arulampalam · mayor of Hartford (2024–present)
- Caroline Simmons · mayor of Stamford (2021–present)
- Chris Murphy · Connecticut (2013–present)
- Erick Russell · treasurer of Connecticut (2023–present)
- Joe Ganim · mayor of Bridgeport (1991–2003, 2015–present)
- Justin Elicker · mayor of New Haven (2020–present)
- Richard Blumenthal · Connecticut (2011–present)
- Sean Scanlon · Connecticut comptroller (2023–present)
Organizations8
Organizations · 8
- Building Trades Unions · ding Trades Unions
- Carpenters · t Carpenters
- College Democrats · of Connecticut
- Democratic Party of Connecticut
- District Laborers' Council · ers' Council
- Giffords
- Teamsters · ut Teamsters
- UNITE HERE · Local 217
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Al Sharpton · civil rights activist
In the news
11 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
11 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles11
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.09
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.20 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.09
Week-over-weekshift +0.20 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 9%
Neutral 91%
9% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets9%
Neutral91%
R-leaning outlets0%
9% of outlets classified by editorial lean
C
CT candidate just short of qualifying for campaign finance grant against Gov. Lamont
C
Opinion: Connecticut should put students first. Gov. Lamont can help.
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Connecticut First Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
C
Lamont Still Leads Elliott, Poll Shows
C
Ned Lamont leads Josh Elliott as primary gap narrows in Democratic governor's race, new poll shows
C
AFL-CIO endorses Lamont over Elliott in Democratic primary
W
Lamont targets ‘corporate welfare’ with new campaign promise
C
Ryan Fazio wants to cap Connecticut property tax increases
W
Can Ryan Fazio deliver property tax relief? He says he can
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Impact CT: Poll Shows Lamont’s Advantage, Elliott’s Opening
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 9deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements59 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage11 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks