Republican primary · August 11, 2026
Connecticut Governor Republican primary
Field of 1 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
82
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (19.2pp).
Forecast CI width64
19.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution64 / 100
Measured19.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 1 poll + fundamentals1Ryan FazioRyan Fazio ( Republican Party ) is a member of the Connecticut State Senate , representing District 36 . He assumed office on August 26, 202…
2Erin Stewart
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Fazio | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13 | OnMessage Inc. | 400 · LV | 13 | — |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 22 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetRyan Fazio · 22
RRyan Fazio22 endorsers
Most notable · Stephen Harding · minority leader of the State Senate (2024–present) from SD-30 (2023–present)
Elected officials21
Federal 0State 20Local 1
Elected officials · 21
- Stephen Harding · minority leader of the State Senate (2024–present) from SD-30 (2023–present)
- Vincent Candelora · minority leader of the House of Representatives (2021–present) from HD-86 (2007–present)
- Betsy McCaughey · former lieutenant governor of New York (1995–1998) and former gubernatorial candidate
- Ron DeSantis · Governor of Florida (2019-Present)
- Eric Berthel · state senator from the 32nd district (2019–present)
- Heather Somers · state senator from the 18th district (2017–present)
- John Kissel · state senator from the 7th district (1993–present)
- Paul Cicarella · state senator from the 34th district (2021–present)
- Rob Sampson · state senator from the 16th district (2019–present)
- Carol Hall · state representative from the 59th district (2017–present)
- Erin Stewart · former mayor of New Britain (2013–2025) and former gubernatorial candidate
- Gale Mastrofrancesco · state representative from the 80th district (2019–present)
- Greg Howard · state representative from the 43rd district (2021–present)
- Irene Haines · state representative from the 34th district (2019–present)
- Joseph Canino · state representative from the 65th district (2025–present)
- Joseph Polletta · state representative from the 68th district (2017–present)
- Nicole Klarides-Ditria · state representative from the 105th district (2017–present)
- Patrick Callahan · state representative from the 108th district (2021–present)
- Seth Bronko · state representative from the 70th district (2023–present)
- Steve Weir · state representative from the 55th district (2022–present)
- Tom O'Dea · state representative, from the 125th district (2013-Present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Connecticut Young Republicans
In the news
11 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
11 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles11
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.09
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.20 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.09
Week-over-weekshift +0.20 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 9%
Neutral 91%
9% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets9%
Neutral91%
R-leaning outlets0%
9% of outlets classified by editorial lean
C
CT candidate just short of qualifying for campaign finance grant against Gov. Lamont
C
Opinion: Connecticut should put students first. Gov. Lamont can help.
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Connecticut First Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
C
Lamont Still Leads Elliott, Poll Shows
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Ned Lamont leads Josh Elliott as primary gap narrows in Democratic governor's race, new poll shows
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AFL-CIO endorses Lamont over Elliott in Democratic primary
W
Lamont targets ‘corporate welfare’ with new campaign promise
C
Ryan Fazio wants to cap Connecticut property tax increases
W
Can Ryan Fazio deliver property tax relief? He says he can
O
Impact CT: Poll Shows Lamont’s Advantage, Elliott’s Opening
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements59 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage11 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks