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Races · Governor · 2026 · Hawaii
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
Governor · open seat

Joshua Green vs Gary Cordery

← Georgia GovernorIowa Governor →
Safe DD +19.6 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 4 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
99% Green (D)
1% Cordery (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +19.6 · 80% CI D+8.6 → D+30.5 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
14.7%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 95¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 96%, market-derived).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+19.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+8.6 (10th pctile) to D+30.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

This race was decisive in 14.7% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.

CITATIONS · safe-d · high-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +19.6
80% CI: D +8.6 → D +30.5 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ8.57pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +23.1
80% CI R +28.7 → D +38.0
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +15.9
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 95¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
80¢85¢90¢95¢100¢428 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 5Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Republicans win the Hawaii governor race in 2026?”
94¢3¢+0¢—-1
Kalshi
“Hawaii Governor winner?”
96¢7¢+1¢$0K+1

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet
DJoshua Green0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RGary Cordery0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IJohn Giuffre0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
GJim Brewer0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D4
Cook Political Report
Safe D
May 20
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 24
RealClearPolitics
Safe D
Jun 4
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jun 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 5, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 3, 2026Tilt Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks