Races · Governor · 2026 · Iowa
Governor · open seat
Rob Sand vs Zach Lahn
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 81% R
Polling average rates this race Likely D (D+5.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+7.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+18.4 (10th pctile) to D+3.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 81% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 28.2% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Polling has been stable (stable) over the 30d window.
Uncertainty score: 70/100 (high). Key drivers: wide forecast CI (22.0pp); models disagree by 12.5pp. Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · likely-d · high-tipping · stable · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
70
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (22.0pp).
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement63
12.5pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution63 / 100
Measured12.5pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion33
3.3pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution33 / 100
Measured3.3pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity25
6 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution25 / 100
Measured6 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +7.4
80% CI: R +18.4 → D +3.6 · win prob 19%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 6 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +4.9
80% CI R +13.3 → R +0.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +5.1
80% CI D +3.7 → D +6.5
CV MAE 1.11
consensusMarket-implied
D +3.0
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 63¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 14 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 63% · polls 50%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
3 polls · through Jun 27, 2026 · latest Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research
Rob Sand
VoteHub49.6%
VoteHub
Polling average49.6%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg49.6%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average49.6%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.0 pt above our average
Zach Lahn
VoteHub44.8%
VoteHub
Polling average44.8%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg45.2%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average45.2%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.4 pt below our average
VoteHub's independent average across 3 polls (through Jun 27, 2026): Rob Sand 49.6%, Zach Lahn 44.8%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 6 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30 | Fox NewsFor · Fox News | 1,003 · RV | D-LEAN | D +2.121 tracked | +2.7d lean | 53 · 44 |
| Jun 30 | Siena College+1For · The New York Times | 600 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.715 tracked | +1.2aligned | 48 · 47 |
| Jun 26 | Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research+1For · Shaw & Co. Research (R) | 1,003 · RV | R-LEAN | — | +5.2d lean | 53 · 44 |
| Jun 26 | New York Times/Siena University+1For · Siena University | 600 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +4.3d lean | 48 · 47 |
| Jun 25 | Cygnal | 600 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.954 tracked | +1.2aligned | 48 · 43 |
| Jun 18 | CygnalFor · Internal R-aligned | 600 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.954 tracked | +1.2aligned | 48 · 43 |
Endorsements · 22 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet11
11
Endorsements tracked
Rob Sand11 · 50%
Zach Lahn11 · 50%
Total22
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DRob Sand11 endorsers
Most notable · Andy Beshear · governor of Kentucky (2019–present)
Organizations7
Organizations · 7
- AFL-CIO · deration of Labor, AFL-CIO
- AFSCME · Council 61
- End Citizens United
- LIUNA · 177
- NEA · a State Education Association, NEA
- SEIU · Healthcare Minnesota & Iowa
- United Auto Workers
Elected officials4
Federal 0State 3Local 1
Elected officials · 4
- Andy Beshear · governor of Kentucky (2019–present)
- Tim Walz · governor of Minnesota (2019–present)
- Matt Walsh · former mayor of Council Bluffs (2014–2025) ( Republican )
- Walt Tomenga · former HD-69 (2005–2009) ( Republican )
RZach Lahn11 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials6
Federal 4State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 6
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Jeff Kaufmann · former HD-79 (2005–2013) and chair of the Iowa Republican Party (2014–present)
- Kim Reynolds · governor of Iowa (2017–present)
- Ashley Hinson · IA-02 (2021–present) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2026
- Randy Feenstra · IA-04 (2021–present) and former gubernatorial candidate
- Steve King · former IA-04 (2003–2021)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- Make America Healthy Again · Action
- Steak 'n Shake
- Turning Point Action
Celebrity2
Celebrity · 2
- Bob Vander Plaats · president and CEO of The Family Leader
- Rob Schneider · actor and comedian ( Independent )
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Rob Sand
Receipts
$9.6M
Disburse
$3.9M
Cash on hand
—
Debts
—
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Zach Lahn
Receipts
$163.6K
Disburse
$7.7K
Cash on hand
—
Debts
—
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tossup4
Tossup · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Cook Political Report
TossupInside Elections
TossupRealClearPolitics
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
TossupDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
98 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles98
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.05
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.09 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.05
Week-over-weekshift −0.09 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 7%
Neutral 91%
R 2%
9% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets7%
Neutral91%
R-leaning outlets2%
9% of outlets classified by editorial lean
L
Josh Turek leads Ashley Hinson in one of two new election polls; Rob Sand beats Zach Lahn in both
R
Candidate for governor Lahn makes first public speech since GOP convention
G
Iowa gubernatorial candidate Zach Lahn pushes back at criticism of residence, travel
I
Iowa Down Ballot podcast: SNAP junk food, USDA staff cuts, Iowa polls
K
Democrat Sand brings his governor campaign to Northwest Iowa with bipartisan messaging
T
Zach Lahn pushes back at criticism of residence, travel
W
Iowa's budget outlook could be a talking point in this year's gubernatorial race
N
Iowa U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
T
Polls: Iowa’s U.S. Senate campaign tight, Sand leads for governor
K
Why both parties are talking about water quality on the campaign trail in Iowa
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified5 / 6deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements79 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks