| 4/21/2026 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 1295 | ±2.7 | LV | 🟡high variance vs editorial consensus⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
| Chris Pappas 52.0 · Scott Brown 38.0 | pollarch |
| 4/21/2026 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 1295 | ±2.7 | LV | 🟡high variance vs editorial consensus⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
| Chris Pappas 49.0 · John E. Sununu 42.0 | pollarch |
| 3/23/2026 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 1000 | ±2.9 | LV | ⚪✓ verified 5d ago⚪likely-voter screen+2- ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Chris Pappas 48.0 · Scott Brown 39.0 | pollarch |
| 3/23/2026 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 1000 | ±2.9 | LV | ⚪✓ verified 5d ago⚪likely-voter screen+2- ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Chris Pappas 45.0 · John E. Sununu 44.0 | pollarch |
| 3/18/2026 | Saint Anselm College | 0.81 | —(R+1.7) | 1491 | ±2.5 | RV | 🟡4 scored polls⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Chris Pappas 47.0 · Scott Brown 38.0 | pollarch |
| 3/18/2026 | Saint Anselm College | 0.81 | —(R+1.7) | 1491 | ±2.5 | RV | 🟡4 scored polls⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Chris Pappas 46.0 · John E. Sununu 43.0 | pollarch |
| 1/29/2026 | yes. every kid. | 1.00 | — | 563 | ±4.1 | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡101d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
101d old Poll was fielded 101 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Chris Pappas 45.0 · John E. Sununu 41.0 | pollarch |
| 1/19/2026 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 2053 | ±2.1 | LV | 🟡111d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+4- 🟡
111d old Poll was fielded 111 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt. - 🔵
n=2,053 Sample size of 2,053 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Chris Pappas 52.0 · Scott Brown 42.0 | pollarch |
| 1/19/2026 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 2053 | ±2.1 | LV | 🟡111d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+4- 🟡
111d old Poll was fielded 111 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt. - 🔵
n=2,053 Sample size of 2,053 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Chris Pappas 50.0 · John E. Sununu 45.0 | pollarch |
| 12/28/2025 | NHJournal/Praecones Analytica | 1.00 | — | 603 | ±4.0 | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡133d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
133d old Poll was fielded 133 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Chris Pappas 46.0 · Scott Brown 28.0 | pollarch |
| 12/28/2025 | NHJournal/Praecones Analytica | 1.00 | — | 603 | ±4.0 | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡133d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
133d old Poll was fielded 133 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Chris Pappas 42.0 · John E. Sununu 36.0 | pollarch |
| 12/11/2025 | Guidant Polling and Strategy | 1.00 | R | 600 | ±4.0 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
150d old Poll was fielded 150 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Chris Pappas 49.0 · Scott Brown 38.0 | pollarch |
| 12/11/2025 | Guidant Polling and Strategy | 1.00 | R | 600 | ±4.0 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
150d old Poll was fielded 150 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Chris Pappas 47.0 · John E. Sununu 44.0 | pollarch |
| 11/19/2025 | Saint Anselm College | 0.81 | —(R+1.7) | 2212 | — | RV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡172d old+4- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
172d old Poll was fielded 172 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
n=2,212 Sample size of 2,212 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Chris Pappas 44.0 · Scott Brown 36.0 | pollarch |
| 11/19/2025 | Saint Anselm College | 0.81 | —(R+1.7) | 2212 | — | RV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡172d old+4- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
172d old Poll was fielded 172 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
n=2,212 Sample size of 2,212 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Chris Pappas 44.0 · John E. Sununu 41.0 | pollarch |
| 10/13/2025 | co/efficient | 0.71 | R(R+5.4) | 1034 | ±3.1 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: efficient (R)🟠historical bias R+5.4pt+4- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: efficient (R) This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (efficient (R)). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟠
historical bias R+5.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
209d old Poll was fielded 209 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
R+4.4pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Chris Pappas 49.0 · Scott Brown 39.0 | pollarch |
| 10/13/2025 | co/efficient | 0.71 | R(R+5.4) | 1034 | ±3.1 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: efficient (R)🟠historical bias R+5.4pt+4- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: efficient (R) This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (efficient (R)). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟠
historical bias R+5.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
209d old Poll was fielded 209 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
R+4.4pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Chris Pappas 45.0 · John E. Sununu 42.0 | pollarch |
| 9/23/2025 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 1235 | ±2.8 | LV | 🟡229d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
229d old Poll was fielded 229 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
| Chris Pappas 52.0 · Scott Brown 37.0 | pollarch |
| 9/23/2025 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 1235 | ±2.8 | LV | 🟡229d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
229d old Poll was fielded 229 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
| Chris Pappas 49.0 · John E. Sununu 43.0 | pollarch |
| 9/12/2025 | co/efficient | 0.71 | R(R+5.4) | 904 | ±3.3 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: efficient (R)🟠historical bias R+5.4pt+4- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: efficient (R) This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (efficient (R)). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟠
historical bias R+5.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
240d old Poll was fielded 240 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
R+4.4pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Chris Pappas 50.0 · Scott Brown 40.0 | pollarch |
| 9/12/2025 | co/efficient | 0.71 | R(R+5.4) | 904 | ±3.3 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: efficient (R)🟠historical bias R+5.4pt+4- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: efficient (R) This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (efficient (R)). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟠
historical bias R+5.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
240d old Poll was fielded 240 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
R+4.4pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Chris Pappas 46.0 · John E. Sununu 43.0 | pollarch |
| 9/12/2025 | co/efficient | 0.71 | R(R+5.4) | 904 | ±3.3 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: efficient (R)🟠historical bias R+5.4pt+4- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: efficient (R) This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (efficient (R)). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟠
historical bias R+5.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
240d old Poll was fielded 240 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
R+4.4pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Chris Pappas 49.0 · Dan Innis 37.0 | pollarch |
| 9/4/2025 | 1892 Polling | 1.00 | R | 500 | ±4.4 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
248d old Poll was fielded 248 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Chris Pappas 45.0 · John E. Sununu 43.0 | pollarch |
| 8/27/2025 | Saint Anselm College | 0.81 | —(R+1.7) | 1776 | ±2.3 | RV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡256d old+4- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
256d old Poll was fielded 256 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
n=1,776 Sample size of 1,776 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Chris Pappas 48.0 · Scott Brown 37.0 | pollarch |
| 8/27/2025 | Saint Anselm College | 0.81 | —(R+1.7) | 1776 | ±2.3 | RV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡256d old+4- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
256d old Poll was fielded 256 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
n=1,776 Sample size of 1,776 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Chris Pappas 48.0 · Dan Innis 30.0 | pollarch |
| 3/19/2025 | Quantus Insights | 1.00 | R | 650 | ±3.8 | RV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+4- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
417d old Poll was fielded 417 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+5.2pt vs editors Across 5 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.2pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Chris Pappas 44.0 · Chris Sununu 53.0 | pollarch |
| 3/1/2025 | Praecones Analytica | 1.00 | — | 626 | ±4.5 | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡435d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
435d old Poll was fielded 435 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Jeanne Shaheen 46.0 · Chris Sununu 54.0 | pollarch |
| 3/1/2025 | Praecones Analytica | 1.00 | — | 626 | ±4.5 | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡435d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
435d old Poll was fielded 435 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Jeanne Shaheen 59.0 · Frank Edelblut 41.0 | pollarch |
| 3/1/2025 | Praecones Analytica | 1.00 | — | 626 | ±4.5 | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡435d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
435d old Poll was fielded 435 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Jeanne Shaheen 55.0 · Scott Brown 45.0 | pollarch |
Sununu Senate campaign to file amended financial disclosurewmur.com · 1d ago
Trump targets Sen . Cassidy and Rep . Massie after Indiana primary winsfoxnews.com · 1d ago
Ayotte wades into wraparound mental health services debateinsurancenewsnet.com · 1d ago
Shaheen says Trump administration has not achieved Iran objectiveswcax.com · 2d ago
Alabama GOP Senate candidate calls for all - Republican congressional maputv44.com · 2d ago
Ayotte will now decide whether to remove deadline for inmates to introduce new evidence in courtnorthcountrynow.com · 2d ago
On - farm slaughter , processing bill heads to governor desknorthcountrynow.com · 2d ago
Trump claims doubled gas prices are way down as his transport chief tells Americans to take road tripsindependent.co.uk · 2d ago
Bill Hamlen : Reagan 80 % rule and the future of NH GOPunionleader.com · 2d ago