Races · Senate · 2026 · New Hampshire
Senate · class II · open seat · provisional matchup
Chris Pappas vs Republican
Likely matchup — the Republican nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.
Info · primary pending
The Republican nominee hasn't been chosen yet
2 Republican candidates remain. See the republican primary →
Primary September 8, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 88% D
Polling average rates this race Likely D (D+13.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+9.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+1.0 (10th pctile) to D+19.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 88% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 4.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Polling has been stable (stable) over the 30d window.
Uncertainty score: 55/100 (medium). Polls and forecasts agree at a moderate level.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping · stable · uncertainty-medium
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
55
Medium uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (20.5pp).
Forecast CI width68
20.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution68 / 100
Measured20.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement27
5.3pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution27 / 100
Measured5.3pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion44
4.4pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution44 / 100
Measured4.4pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity0
8 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution0 / 100
Measured8 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +9.3
80% CI: R +1.0 → D +19.5 · win prob 88%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 50 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +7.8
80% CI D +6.9 → D +9.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +13.1
80% CI D +11.8 → D +14.5
CV MAE 1.04
consensusMarket-implied
D +9.1
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 84¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 35 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 84% · polls 49%.
Cross-platform price · history
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
4 polls · through Jun 25, 2026 · latest Saint Anselm
Chris Pappas
VoteHub48.5%
VoteHub
Polling average48.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg49.1%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average49.1%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.6 pt below our average
John Sununu
VoteHub42.5%
VoteHub
Polling average42.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Scott Brown
VoteHub37.0%
VoteHub
Polling average37.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
VoteHub's independent average across 4 polls (through Jun 25, 2026): Chris Pappas 48.5%, John Sununu 42.5%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 50 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 26 | Univ. of New Hampshire+1 | 2,232 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +1.4aligned | 52 · 38 |
| Jun 29, 26 | Saint Anselm College+1 | 1,614 · RV | NEUTRAL | R +1.74 tracked | +1.0aligned | 48 · 36 |
| Jun 29, 26 | Univ. of New Hampshire+1 | 2,232 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +1.4aligned | 47 · 44 |
| Jun 29, 26 | Saint Anselm College+1 | 1,614 · RV | NEUTRAL | R +1.74 tracked | +1.0aligned | 47 · 41 |
| Jun 24, 26 | Saint Anselm College+1For · Saint Anselm College | 1,614 · RV | NEUTRAL | R +1.74 tracked | +1.0aligned | 48 · 36 |
| Jun 24, 26 | Saint Anselm College+1For · Saint Anselm College | 1,614 · RV | NEUTRAL | R +1.74 tracked | +1.0aligned | 47 · 41 |
| Jun 22, 26 | University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire | 2,232 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 52 · 38 |
| Jun 22, 26 | University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire | 2,232 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 47 · 44 |
| Apr 22, 26 | Univ. of New Hampshire+1 | 1,129 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +1.4aligned | 52 · 38 |
| Apr 22, 26 | Univ. of New Hampshire+1 | 1,129 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +1.4aligned | 49 · 42 |
Endorsements · 30 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet30
Endorsements tracked
Chris Pappas30 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total30
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DChris Pappas30 endorsers
Most notable · John Lynch · former governor of New Hampshire (2005–2013)
Organizations18
Organizations · 18
- AIPAC
- American Federation of Government Employees
- Brady Campaign
- Council for a Livable World
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- End Citizens United
- Equality PAC
- Giffords
- Human Rights Campaign
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters · Local 633
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- LGBTQ+ Victory Fund
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection
- Reproductive Freedom for All
Elected officials11
Federal 9State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 11
- John Lynch · former governor of New Hampshire (2005–2013)
- Maura Sullivan · former assistant to the secretary of defense for public affairs (2015) and candidate for NH-01 in 2026
- Maggie Goodlander · NH-02 (2025–present)
- Amy Klobuchar · Minnesota (2007–present)
- Annie Kuster · NH-02 (2013–2025)
- Evan Low · former California state assemblymember from the 26th district (2014–2024)
- Gabby Giffords · AZ-02 (2007–2012)
- Jeanne Shaheen · New Hampshire (2009–present)
- Maggie Hassan · New Hampshire (2017–present)
- Mark Kelly · Arizona (2020–present)
- Pete Buttigieg · former secretary of transportation (2021–2025)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Susan Lynch · former first lady of New Hampshire (2005–2013)
RRepublican0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-26John E. SununuS6NH00208 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Cumulative receipts · 2 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Chris PappasS6NH00141 ↗
Receipts
$9.9M
Disburse
$6.0M
Cash on hand
$4.2M
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 5 filings
Top industries
Securities & investment$21.0K
Securities & investment · $21.0K
- Jane Street Capital · $21.0K
Individuals $21.0K · PACs $0
Internet$12.5K
Internet · $12.5K
- Gentex Corporation · $12.5K
Individuals $12.5K · PACs $0
Commercial banks$12.5K
Commercial banks · $12.5K
- Wells Fargo · $12.5K
Individuals $12.5K · PACs $0
Education$12.2K
Education · $12.2K
- Harvard University · $12.2K
Individuals $12.2K · PACs $0
Top contributors
JANE STREET CAPITAL$21.0K
CORNERSTONE GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS$18.1K
PURITAN BACKROOM$14.7K
PDT PARTNERS$14.0K
GIVE FORWARD FOUNDATION$14.0K
Scott Brown
Receipts
$1.7M
Disburse
$881.0K
Cash on hand
$783.4K
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 3 filings
Top industries
Restaurants & drinking$7.0K
Restaurants & drinking · $7.0K
- Kowloon Restaurant · $7.0K
Individuals $7.0K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$7.0K
Lawyers / law firms · $7.0K
- Brady Sullivan Properities · $7.0K
Individuals $7.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
NEW BALANCE$10.0K
BRAIT BUILDERS CORPORATION$9.5K
SUBARU OF NEW ENGLAND$9.0K
NORTHEAST ADVISORS INC$8.0K
READY TO LEAD$7.5K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$4.0M
D side
$262.5K · 7%
R side
$3.8M · 93%
Top spender
AMERICANS FOR PROSP…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $3.3M | 81% | for John E. Sununu |
| Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action super pac · boosts R
| R | $504.2K | 13% | against Chris Pappas |
| STRONG AS GRANITE PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $261.3K | 6% | against John E. Sununu |
| SLF PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $11.2K | 0% | against Chris Pappas |
| DMFI PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $937.5 | 0% | for Chris Pappas |
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $250.73 | 0% | for Chris Pappas |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 21
Lean D2
Lean D · 2 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Apr 12
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Mar 23
Tilt D1
Tilt D · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Apr 22
Tossup1
Tossup · 1 rater
- RealClearPolitics · May 18
The Cook Political Report
Lean DThe Economist
Likely DInside Elections
Tilt DRealClearPolitics
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
28 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
28 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles28
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.07
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.33 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.07
Week-over-weekshift +0.33 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 11%
Neutral 86%
R 4%
14% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets11%
Neutral86%
R-leaning outlets4%
14% of outlets classified by editorial lean
M
Pappas enters US Senate race in New Hampshire
N
New Hampshire Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
H
Senator Hassan Presents Congressional Gold Medal t... | U.S. Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire
B
New Hampshire Ballot Law Commission Rules that Aaron Day , Independent Candidate for U . S . Senate , Cant Qualify
W
Poll shows new potential presidential candidates surging in New Hampshire
W
Poll shows close race for US Senate in New Hampshire
N
Scott Brown to Newsmax: Trump Must 'Play Hardball' on SAVE America Act
U
Sen. Mark Kelly questions President Trump's competence while stumping for Chris Pappas in Derry
N
@Issue: Rep. Chris Pappas on NH race for Senate
N
Rep. Chris Pappas discusses campaign for Senate
Page 1 of 3
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified37 / 50deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-26
Endorsements81 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage28 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks