Republican primary · September 8, 2026
New Hampshire Senate Republican primary
Field of 2 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
33
Medium uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (12.1pp).
Forecast CI width40
12.1pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution40 / 100
Measured12.1pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity25
6 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution25 / 100
Measured6 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 4 polls + fundamentals1John E. SununuJohn Edward Sununu is an American politician from the U.S. state of New Hampshire. A member of the Republican Party, he served in the U.S. H…
2Scott BrownScott Brown ( Republican Party ) is running for election to the U.S. Senate to represent New Hampshire. He declared candidacy for the Republ…
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 26 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Sununu | Brown | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 26 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 978 · LV | 59 | 20 | +39 |
| Jun 29, 26 | Saint Anselm College | 739 · RV | 59 | 21 | +38 |
| Jun 24, 26 | Saint Anselm College | 739 · RV | 59 | 21 | +38 |
| Jun 22, 26 | University of New Hampshire | 978 · LV | 59 | 20 | +39 |
| May 14, 26 | NH Journal | 350 · RV | 73 | 27 | +46 |
| May 12, 26 | NHJournal/Praecones Analytica | 350 · RV | 73 | 27 | +46 |
| Apr 22, 26 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 563 · LV | 56 | 19 | +37 |
| Apr 22, 26 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 563 · LV | 56 | 19 | +37 |
| Apr 20, 26 | University of New Hampshire | 562 · LV | 56 | 19 | +37 |
| Mar 25, 26 | Emerson College | 524 · LV | 48 | 19 | +29 |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 46 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetJohn E. Sununu · 44Scott Brown · 2
RJohn E. Sununu44 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials39
Federal 32State 3Local 0
Elected officials · 39
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- John Barrasso · Senate Majority Whip (2025–present) from Wyoming (2007–present)
- John Thune · Senate Majority Leader (2025-present) from South Dakota (2005-present)
- Stephen Stepanek · former chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party (2019–2023)
- Craig Benson · former governor of New Hampshire (2003–2005)
- Dan Innis · state senator from the 7th district (2016–2018, 2022–present)
- Bernie Moreno · Ohio (2025–present)
- Bill Cassidy · Louisiana (2015–present)
- Bill Hagerty · Tennessee (2021–present)
- Cindy Hyde-Smith · Mississippi (2018–present)
- Eric Schmitt · Missouri (2023–present)
- James Lankford · Oklahoma (2015–present)
- Janet Stevens · New Hampshire Executive Councilor from the 3rd district (2021–present)
- Jerry Moran · Kansas (2011–present)
- Jim Banks · Indiana (2025–present)
- John Cornyn · Texas (2002–present)
- John Stephen · New Hampshire Executive Councilor from the 4th district (2025–present)
- Jon Husted · Ohio (2025–present)
- Joni Ernst · Iowa (2015–present)
- Joseph Kenney · New Hampshire Executive Councilor from the 1st district (2014–2019, 2021–present)
- Judd Gregg · former New Hampshire (1993–2011)
- Katie Britt · Alabama (2023–present)
- Kevin Cramer · North Dakota (2019–present)
- Lindsey Graham · South Carolina (2003–present)
- Lisa Murkowski · Alaska (2002–present)
- Marsha Blackburn · Tennessee (2019–present)
- Mike Rounds · South Dakota (2015–present)
- Pete Ricketts · Nebraska (2023–present)
- Peter Varney · state representative from the Belknap 5th district (2014–present)
- Roger Wicker · Mississippi (2007–present)
- Ron Johnson · Wisconsin (2011–present)
- Sharon Carson · president of the New Hampshire Senate (2024–present) from the 14th district (2008–present)
- Shelley Moore Capito · West Virginia (2015–present)
- Susan Collins · Maine (1997–present)
- Tim Scott · South Carolina (2013–present)
- Tim Sheehy · Montana (2025–present)
- Todd Young · Indiana (2017–present)
- Tom Cotton · Arkansas (2015–present)
- Tommy Tuberville · Alabama (2021–present)
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- Americans for Prosperity
- National Republican Senatorial Committee
- Senate Leadership Fund
- Turning Point Action
Other1
Other · 1
- Turning Point USA
RScott Brown2 endorsers
Most notable · Bob Smith · former New Hampshire (1990–2003)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Bob Smith · former New Hampshire (1990–2003)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Animal Wellness Action
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-06-26Chris SununuS6NH00208 ↗
Raised
$2.48M
Cash on hand
$1.89M
Cumulative receipts · 2 filings
Top industries
Securities & investment$31K
Securities & investment · $31K
- Blackstone · $31K
Individuals $31K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$8K
Lawyers / law firms · $8K
- Greenberg Traurig LLP · $8K
Individuals $8K · PACs $0
John E. SununuS6NH00208 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Cumulative receipts · 2 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
In the news
28 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
28 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles28
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.07
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.33 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.07
Week-over-weekshift +0.33 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 11%
Neutral 86%
R 4%
14% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets11%
Neutral86%
R-leaning outlets4%
14% of outlets classified by editorial lean
M
Pappas enters US Senate race in New Hampshire
N
New Hampshire Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
H
Senator Hassan Presents Congressional Gold Medal t... | U.S. Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire
B
New Hampshire Ballot Law Commission Rules that Aaron Day , Independent Candidate for U . S . Senate , Cant Qualify
W
Poll shows new potential presidential candidates surging in New Hampshire
W
Poll shows close race for US Senate in New Hampshire
N
Scott Brown to Newsmax: Trump Must 'Play Hardball' on SAVE America Act
U
Sen. Mark Kelly questions President Trump's competence while stumping for Chris Pappas in Derry
N
@Issue: Rep. Chris Pappas on NH race for Senate
N
Rep. Chris Pappas discusses campaign for Senate
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 26deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-26
Endorsements81 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage28 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks