Democratic primary · September 8, 2026
New Hampshire Senate Democratic primary
Field of 1 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
45
Medium uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (12.0pp).
Forecast CI width40
12.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution40 / 100
Measured12.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity50
4 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution50 / 100
Measured4 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 4 polls + fundamentals1Chris PappasChristopher Charles Pappas ( / ˈ p æ p ə s / PAPP -əss ; born June 4, 1980) is an American politician who has served as the U.S. representat…
2Karishma Manzur
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 20 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Pappas | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 26 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 997 · LV | 53 | — |
| Jun 29, 26 | Saint Anselm College | 810 · RV | 62 | — |
| Jun 24, 26 | Saint Anselm College | 810 · RV | 62 | — |
| Jun 22, 26 | University of New Hampshire | 997 · LV | 53 | — |
| Apr 22, 26 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 481 · LV | 61 | — |
| Apr 22, 26 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 481 · LV | 61 | — |
| Apr 20, 26 | University of New Hampshire | 481 · LV | 61 | — |
| Mar 22, 26 | Saint Anselm College | 691 · RV | 71 | — |
| Mar 22, 26 | Saint Anselm College | 691 · RV | 71 | — |
| Mar 17, 26 | Saint Anselm College | 691 · RV | 71 | — |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 30 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetChris Pappas · 30
DChris Pappas30 endorsers
Most notable · John Lynch · former governor of New Hampshire (2005–2013)
Organizations18
Organizations · 18
- AIPAC
- American Federation of Government Employees
- Brady Campaign
- Council for a Livable World
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- End Citizens United
- Equality PAC
- Giffords
- Human Rights Campaign
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters · Local 633
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- LGBTQ+ Victory Fund
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection
- Reproductive Freedom for All
Elected officials11
Federal 9State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 11
- John Lynch · former governor of New Hampshire (2005–2013)
- Maura Sullivan · former assistant to the secretary of defense for public affairs (2015) and candidate for NH-01 in 2026
- Maggie Goodlander · NH-02 (2025–present)
- Amy Klobuchar · Minnesota (2007–present)
- Annie Kuster · NH-02 (2013–2025)
- Evan Low · former California state assemblymember from the 26th district (2014–2024)
- Gabby Giffords · AZ-02 (2007–2012)
- Jeanne Shaheen · New Hampshire (2009–present)
- Maggie Hassan · New Hampshire (2017–present)
- Mark Kelly · Arizona (2020–present)
- Pete Buttigieg · former secretary of transportation (2021–2025)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Susan Lynch · former first lady of New Hampshire (2005–2013)
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-06-26Chris PappasS6NH00141 ↗
Raised
$9.86M
Cash on hand
$4.22M
Cumulative receipts · 5 filings
Top industries
Securities & investment$21K
Securities & investment · $21K
- Jane Street Capital · $21K
Individuals $21K · PACs $0
Internet$13K
Internet · $13K
- Gentex Corporation · $13K
Individuals $13K · PACs $0
Commercial banks$13K
Commercial banks · $13K
- Wells Fargo · $13K
Individuals $13K · PACs $0
Education$12K
Education · $12K
- Harvard University · $12K
Individuals $12K · PACs $0
Karishma ManzurS6NH00182 ↗
Raised
$114K
Cash on hand
$15K
Cumulative receipts · 3 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
In the news
28 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
28 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles28
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.07
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.33 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.07
Week-over-weekshift +0.33 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 11%
Neutral 86%
R 4%
14% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets11%
Neutral86%
R-leaning outlets4%
14% of outlets classified by editorial lean
M
Pappas enters US Senate race in New Hampshire
N
New Hampshire Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
H
Senator Hassan Presents Congressional Gold Medal t... | U.S. Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire
B
New Hampshire Ballot Law Commission Rules that Aaron Day , Independent Candidate for U . S . Senate , Cant Qualify
W
Poll shows new potential presidential candidates surging in New Hampshire
W
Poll shows close race for US Senate in New Hampshire
N
Scott Brown to Newsmax: Trump Must 'Play Hardball' on SAVE America Act
U
Sen. Mark Kelly questions President Trump's competence while stumping for Chris Pappas in Derry
N
@Issue: Rep. Chris Pappas on NH race for Senate
N
Rep. Chris Pappas discusses campaign for Senate
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 20deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-26
Endorsements81 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage28 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks