Races · Senate · 2026 · Alaska
Senate · class II · open seat · provisional matchup
Mary Peltola vs Republican
Likely matchup — the Republican nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.
Info · primary pending
The Republican nominee hasn't been chosen yet
3 Republican candidates remain. See the republican primary →
Primary August 18, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedDan S. Sullivan (R) and Mary Peltola (D) are contesting Alaska's U.S. Senate seat on November 3, 2026. The race rates lean-D with a polling-average margin of 3.6 points. The most recent survey, by New York Times/Siena University through June 29, 2026 (n=593 likely voters), showed Sullivan at 47% and Peltola at 45% [1]. Prediction markets favor Peltola: Polymarket implies a 60.5% win probability [6] and Kalshi places her at 59.0% [7].
CITATIONS · lean-d · high-tipping · trending-r · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-large
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
64
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (20.5pp).
Forecast CI width68
20.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution68 / 100
Measured20.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement61
12.1pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution61 / 100
Measured12.1pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion29
2.9pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution29 / 100
Measured2.9pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity0
8 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution0 / 100
Measured8 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +6.9
80% CI: R +17.1 → D +3.4 · win prob 20%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 28 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +9.6
80% CI R +20.6 → R +8.6
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +2.5
80% CI D +1.2 → D +4.0
CV MAE 1.09
consensusMarket-implied
D +1.8
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 58¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 12 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 58% · polls 47%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?” | 61¢ | 41¢ | -8¢ | — | +2 |
| Kalshi “Alaska Senate winner? (Person)” | 56¢ | 46¢ | -3¢ | $1K | -2 |
| Predictit “Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Alaska?” | 58¢ | 48¢ | +3¢ | — | -0 |
Polymarket sits 2¢ above consensus.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
3 polls · through Jun 29, 2026 · latest The New York Times/Siena University
Mary Peltola
VoteHub47.6%
VoteHub
Polling average47.6%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg46.6%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average46.6%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 1.0 pt above our average
Dan Sullivan
VoteHub45.0%
VoteHub
Polling average45.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Dustin Darden
VoteHub3.9%
VoteHub
Polling average3.9%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Gerald Heikes
VoteHub3.2%
VoteHub
Polling average3.2%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
VoteHub's independent average across 3 polls (through Jun 29, 2026): Mary Peltola 47.6%, Dan Sullivan 45.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 28 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 26 | Siena College+1For · The New York Times | 593 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.715 tracked | +1.2aligned | 45 · 47 |
| Jun 28, 26 | New York Times/Siena University+1For · Siena University | 593 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +4.3d lean | 45 · 47 |
| Jun 6, 26 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,393 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +5.3decoupled | 49 · 44 |
| Jun 6, 26 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,393 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +5.3decoupled | 49 · 44 |
| May 16, 26 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,401 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +5.3decoupled | 48 · 44 |
| May 16, 26 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,401 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +5.3decoupled | 48 · 44 |
| Apr 22, 26 | Alaska Survey Research+2 | 1,946 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +5.3decoupled | 49 · 5 |
| Apr 18, 26 | Alaska Survey Research+2For · Alaska Survey Research | 1,946 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +5.3decoupled | 49 · 43 |
| Apr 18, 26 | Alaska Survey Research+2For · Alaska Survey Research | 1,946 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +5.3decoupled | 49 · 43 |
| Mar 21, 26 | Alaska Survey Research+2 | 1,590 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +5.3decoupled | 49 · 44 |
Endorsements · 16 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet16
Endorsements tracked
Mary Peltola16 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total16
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DMary Peltola16 endorsers
Most notable · Tom Begich · former senate minority leader (2019–2023) from district J (2017–2023) and 2026 gubernatorial candidate
Organizations10
Organizations · 10
- AFL-CIO · AFL-CIO
- Association of Flight Attendants
- EMILY's List
- Elect Democratic Women
- End Citizens United
- J Street
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- National Education Association
- Progressive Victory
- SEIU 775
Elected officials5
Federal 3State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 5
- Tom Begich · former senate minority leader (2019–2023) from district J (2017–2023) and 2026 gubernatorial candidate
- Eric Croft · chair of the Alaska Democratic Party (2025–present)
- Peggy Flanagan · lieutenant governor of Minnesota (2019–present) and 2026 U.S. senate candidate in Minnesota
- Elissa Slotkin · Michigan (2025–present)
- Pete Buttigieg · former secretary of transportation (2021–2025)
Other1
Other · 1
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · NY-14 (2019–present)
RRepublican0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
ISid Hill0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-07-02Mary PeltolaS6AK00276 ↗
Receipts
$8.7M
Disburse
$2.9M
Cash on hand
$5.7M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Internet$17.3K
Internet · $17.3K
- Google · $17.3K
Individuals $17.3K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$14.3K
Securities & investment · $14.3K
- Bain Capital · $14.3K
Individuals $14.3K · PACs $0
Computers / electronics$9.0K
Computers / electronics · $9.0K
- Amazon · $9.0K
Individuals $9.0K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$8.8K
Lawyers / law firms · $8.8K
- Akin Gump LLP · $8.8K
Individuals $8.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
NOT-EMPLOYED$19.0K
GOOGLE$17.3K
BAIN CAPITAL$14.3K
THE COMMERCE COMPANY$14.0K
FUTURE BEING LLC$14.0K
Dan S. SullivanS4AK00214 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Cumulative receipts · 5 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Dan SullivanS4AK00214 ↗
Receipts
$6.5M
Disburse
$1.5M
Cash on hand
$7.1M
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 5 filings
Top industries
Securities & investment$63.8K
Securities & investment · $63.8K
- Blackstone · $32.3K
- Apollo · $17.3K
- Apollo Global Management · $14.2K
Individuals $63.8K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$16.5K
Lawyers / law firms · $16.5K
- Kirkland & Ellis LLP · $16.5K
Individuals $16.5K · PACs $0
Top contributors
BLACKSTONE$32.3K
ATLAS AIR$19.5K
ECHOSTAR$19.0K
APOLLO$17.3K
KIRKLAND & ELLIS LLP$16.5K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$2.6M
D side
$42.2K · 2%
R side
$2.6M · 98%
Top spender
LAST FRONTIER PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAST FRONTIER PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.6M | 60% | against Mary Peltola |
| SLF PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $925.9K | 35% | for Dan S. Sullivan |
| AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $420.5K | 16% | for Dan S. Sullivan |
| Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action super pac · boosts R
| R | $420.5K | 16% | for Dan Sullivan |
| INDIVISIBLE ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $31.0K | 1% | against Dan S. Sullivan |
| Indivisible Action super pac · boosts D
| D | $15.5K | 1% | against Dan Sullivan |
| BLUE BATTLEGROUND PROJECT super pac · boosts D
| D | $10.0K | 0% | for Mary Peltola |
| FORWARD BLUE super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.0K | 0% | for Mary Peltola |
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $258.71 | 0% | for Mary Peltola |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tossup3
Tossup · 3 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Jun 30
- RealClearPolitics · May 18
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 10
Lean R2
Lean R · 2 raters
- The Economist · May 21
- Inside Elections · Apr 22
The Cook Political Report
TossupThe Economist
Lean RInside Elections
Lean RRealClearPolitics
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
TossupDemographic crosstabs
1 poll with subgroup dataAge
18-44R +37
0%37%
Age · 18-44
Democrat0%
Republican37%
Other / undecided63%
MarginR +37
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
45-64R +54
0%54%
Age · 45-64
Democrat0%
Republican54%
Other / undecided46%
MarginR +54
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
65+R +49
0%49%
Age · 65+
Democrat0%
Republican49%
Other / undecided51%
MarginR +49
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
Party
DemR +1
0%1%
Party · Dem
Democrat0%
Republican1%
Other / undecided99%
MarginR +1
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
RepR +91
0%91%
Party · Rep
Democrat0%
Republican91%
Other / undecided9%
MarginR +91
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
Race
OtherR +35
0%35%
Race · Other
Democrat0%
Republican35%
Other / undecided65%
MarginR +35
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
WhiteR +38
0%38%
Race · White
Democrat0%
Republican38%
Other / undecided62%
MarginR +38
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
118 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles118
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.21
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.32 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.21
Week-over-weekshift +0.32 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 26%
Neutral 69%
R 5%
31% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets26%
Neutral69%
R-leaning outlets5%
31% of outlets classified by editorial lean
M
DOJ launches investigation into Alaska candidate with same name as sitting senator
A
DOJ launches investigation into Alaska candidate with same name as sitting senator
N
Exclusive: Dan Sullivan saga in Alaska Senate race under investigation
N
The Dan Sullivan saga in the Alaska Senate race is under investigation, sources say
M
Cook shifts Alaska Senate race to toss-up as GOP worries grow
N
Alaska Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
A
Sullivan holds slim lead over Peltola in NYT Alaska Senate poll
S
New York Times/Siena Polls in Alaska, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio
A
Alaska Supreme Court says a man with the same name as US Sen. Dan Sullivan can be on primary ballot
A
Election officials’ sample ballot shows how they seek to distinguish two Dan Sullivans in U.S. Senate race
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified18 / 28deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-02
Endorsements54 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks