Primary · August 18, 2026
Alaska Senate primary
Field of 5 candidates running on a single ballot (jungle / nonpartisan format). Top finishers advance to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (38.9pp).
Forecast CI width100
38.9pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured38.9pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 2 polls + fundamentals1Mary PeltolaMary Sattler Peltola (born August 31, 1973) is an American politician and former tribal judge who served as the U.S. representative from Ala…
2Dan SullivanDan Sullivan ( Republican Party ) is running for election to the U.S. Senate to represent Alaska. Sullivan declared candidacy for the primar…
3Sid HillSid Hill (Undeclared) is running for election to the U.S. Senate to represent Alaska. He declared candidacy for the primary scheduled on Aug…
4James RyanJames Ryan may refer to:
↑ top 4 advance to November · ↓ eliminated
5Ann Diener
6Christopher Miklos
7William Hunt
8Grayson
9Fred Grauberger
10Richard Grayson
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
odds to win the seat in November · updated 11h agoNo platform lists a primary-winner contract for this race, so these are each candidate's market odds of winning the general election — winning the nomination is a prerequisite, which is why traders separate the field this way.
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Peltola | Sullivan | Sullivan | Hill | Ryan | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28 | Alaska Survey Research | 874 · LV | 46 | — | 41 | 3 | 3 | +5 |
| Mar 21 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,283 · LV | 46 | — | 41 | 3 | 3 | +5 |
Endorsements · primary · 39 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetMary Peltola · 16Dan Sullivan · 12Dan S. Sullivan · 11
DMary Peltola16 endorsers
Most notable · Tom Begich · former senate minority leader (2019–2023) from district J (2017–2023) and 2026 gubernatorial candidate
Organizations10
Organizations · 10
- AFL-CIO · AFL-CIO
- Association of Flight Attendants
- EMILY's List
- Elect Democratic Women
- End Citizens United
- J Street
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- National Education Association
- Progressive Victory
- SEIU 775
Elected officials5
Federal 3State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 5
- Tom Begich · former senate minority leader (2019–2023) from district J (2017–2023) and 2026 gubernatorial candidate
- Eric Croft · chair of the Alaska Democratic Party (2025–present)
- Peggy Flanagan · lieutenant governor of Minnesota (2019–present) and 2026 U.S. senate candidate in Minnesota
- Elissa Slotkin · Michigan (2025–present)
- Pete Buttigieg · former secretary of transportation (2021–2025)
Other1
Other · 1
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · NY-14 (2019–present)
RDan Sullivan12 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials8
Federal 3State 3Local 0
Elected officials · 8
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Lyman Hoffman · state senator from district S (1991–1993, 1995–present) (Democratic)
- Bill Thomas · former state representative from the 5th district (2005–2013)
- Gary Stevens · Senate president (2009–2013, 2023–present) from district C (2003–present)
- John Lincoln · former state representative from the 40th district (2018–2021) (Independent)
- Lisa Murkowski · Alaska (2002–present)
- Nick Begich III · AK-AL (2025–present)
- Tara Sweeney · former assistant secretary of the interior for Native American affairs (2018–2021)
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- Alaska Native corporations · ons
- Americans for Prosperity
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters · Local 959
- Log Cabin Republicans
RDan S. Sullivan11 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials6
Federal 2State 3Local 0
Elected officials · 6
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Lyman Hoffman · state senator from district S (1991–1993, 1995–present) (Democratic)
- Bill Thomas · former state representative from the 5th district (2005–2013)
- Gary Stevens · Senate president (2009–2013, 2023–present) from district C (2003–present)
- John Lincoln · former state representative from the 40th district (2018–2021) (Independent)
- Tara Sweeney · former assistant secretary of the interior for Native American affairs (2018–2021)
Other4
Other · 4
- Alaska Native corporations · ons
- Lisa Murkowski · Alaska (2002–present)
- Log Cabin Republicans
- Nick Begich III · AK-AL (2025–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters · Local 959
ISid Hill0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJames Ryan0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-07-02Mary PeltolaS6AK00276 ↗
Raised
$8.66M
Cash on hand
$5.73M
Top industries
Internet$17K
Internet · $17K
- Google · $17K
Individuals $17K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$14K
Securities & investment · $14K
- Bain Capital · $14K
Individuals $14K · PACs $0
Computers / electronics$9K
Computers / electronics · $9K
- Amazon · $9K
Individuals $9K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$9K
Lawyers / law firms · $9K
- Akin Gump LLP · $9K
Individuals $9K · PACs $0
Dan SullivanS4AK00214 ↗
Raised
$6.50M
Cash on hand
$7.09M
Cumulative receipts · 5 filings
Top industries
Securities & investment$64K
Securities & investment · $64K
- Blackstone · $32K
- Apollo · $17K
- Apollo Global Management · $14K
Individuals $64K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$17K
Lawyers / law firms · $17K
- Kirkland & Ellis LLP · $17K
Individuals $17K · PACs $0
Dan S. SullivanS4AK00214 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Cumulative receipts · 5 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Demographic crosstabs
1 poll with subgroup data · general-election splitsAge
18-44R +37
0%37%
Age · 18-44
Democrat0%
Republican37%
Other / undecided63%
MarginR +37
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
45-64R +54
0%54%
Age · 45-64
Democrat0%
Republican54%
Other / undecided46%
MarginR +54
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
65+R +49
0%49%
Age · 65+
Democrat0%
Republican49%
Other / undecided51%
MarginR +49
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
Party
DemR +1
0%1%
Party · Dem
Democrat0%
Republican1%
Other / undecided99%
MarginR +1
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
RepR +91
0%91%
Party · Rep
Democrat0%
Republican91%
Other / undecided9%
MarginR +91
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
Race
OtherR +35
0%35%
Race · Other
Democrat0%
Republican35%
Other / undecided65%
MarginR +35
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
WhiteR +38
0%38%
Race · White
Democrat0%
Republican38%
Other / undecided62%
MarginR +38
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
118 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles118
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.21
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.32 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.21
Week-over-weekshift +0.32 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 26%
Neutral 69%
R 5%
31% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets26%
Neutral69%
R-leaning outlets5%
31% of outlets classified by editorial lean
M
DOJ launches investigation into Alaska candidate with same name as sitting senator
A
DOJ launches investigation into Alaska candidate with same name as sitting senator
N
Exclusive: Dan Sullivan saga in Alaska Senate race under investigation
N
The Dan Sullivan saga in the Alaska Senate race is under investigation, sources say
M
Cook shifts Alaska Senate race to toss-up as GOP worries grow
N
Alaska Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
A
Sullivan holds slim lead over Peltola in NYT Alaska Senate poll
S
New York Times/Siena Polls in Alaska, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio
A
Alaska Supreme Court says a man with the same name as US Sen. Dan Sullivan can be on primary ballot
A
Election officials’ sample ballot shows how they seek to distinguish two Dan Sullivans in U.S. Senate race
Page 1 of 4
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-02
Endorsements54 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks