RepublicanRunning for AK U.S. Senate · 2026
Dan Sullivan
Dan Sullivan ( Republican Party ) is running for election to the U.S. Senate to represent Alaska. Sullivan declared candidacy for the primary scheduled on August 18, 2026 . [source]
In brief
—
No profile summary yet
Summaries are written and fact-checked against the underlying data in nightly batches. This candidate's hasn't been generated or verified yet.
45.2%
Polling average
our aggregate
40%
Win probability
market-implied
$6.5M
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Sullivan's money comes from.
D
29/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans on concentrated money — pac independence is the weak spot.
3 watch items · pac independence
Small-dollar reliance10
5% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence0
36% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding15
85% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure90
$748k in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$6.5M
Raised
$1.5M
Spent
$7.1M
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
5% small (<$200)59% large indiv.36% PAC
15% in-state · 85% out-of-state (itemized)
Top contributors · bundled by employer / org
BLACKSTONE
$32k
ATLAS AIR
$20k
ECHOSTAR
$19k
APOLLO
$17k
KIRKLAND & ELLIS LLP
$17k
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT
$14k
Top industries · itemized $
Securities & investment$64k
Lawyers / law firms$17k
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Race
The contest Sullivan is running in.
AK · SENATE · 2026lean d
Sullivan (R) vs Mary Peltola (D)
45.2%−1.4 Peltola46.6%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Sullivan and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Dustin Darden
Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Ann Diener
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Dan Sullivan
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Mary Peltola
Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Richard Grayson
Alaska Senate winner? (Person)
Kalshi · vol $40 · Dan Sullivan
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT.
Related coverage
msn.com · 2026-07-07
DOJ launches investigation into Alaska candidate with same name as sitting senator
abcnews.com · 2026-07-04
DOJ launches investigation into Alaska candidate with same name as sitting senator
nbcnews.com · 2026-07-02
Exclusive: Dan Sullivan saga in Alaska Senate race under investigation
nbcnews.com · 2026-07-02
The Dan Sullivan saga in the Alaska Senate race is under investigation, sources say
Republican · AK U.S. Senate
Dan Sullivan
Dan Sullivan ( Republican Party ) is running for election to the U.S. Senate to represent Alaska. Sullivan declared candidacy for the primary scheduled on August 18, 2026 . [source]
Where Sullivan standsRace →
Sullivan 45.2%Mary Peltola 46.6%
Market · wins
40¢
45.2%
Poll avg
40%
Win prob
$6.5M
Raised
In brief
—
No profile summary yet
Summaries are written and fact-checked against the underlying data in nightly batches. This candidate's hasn't been generated or verified yet.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Sullivan's money comes from.
D
29/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans on concentrated money — pac independence is the weak spot.
3 watch items · pac independence
Small-dollar reliance10
5% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence0
36% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding15
85% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure90
$748k in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$6.5M
Raised
$1.5M
Spent
$7.1M
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
5% small (<$200)59% large indiv.36% PAC
15% in-state · 85% out-of-state (itemized)
Top industries · itemized $
Securities & investment$64k
Lawyers / law firms$17k
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Related prediction markets
All markets →Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Dustin Darden
Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Ann Diener
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Dan Sullivan
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Mary Peltola
Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Richard Grayson
Alaska Senate winner? (Person)
Kalshi · vol $40 · Dan Sullivan
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT.