Races · Senate · 2026 · Alabama
Senate · class II · open seat
Alabama Senate
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe R (D win prob 7%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+22.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+32.8 (10th pctile) to R+12.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 10.4% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Uncertainty score: 97/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (20.5pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-r · high-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
97
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width68
20.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution68 / 100
Measured20.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement53
10.6pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution53 / 100
Measured10.6pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +22.5
80% CI: R +32.8 → R +12.2 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +33.1
80% CI R +34.8 → R +29.1
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +16.2
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 5¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Endorsements · 30 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet30
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Barry Moore30 · 100%
Total30
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RBarry Moore30 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials22
Federal 16State 6Local 0
Elected officials · 22
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- JD Vance · vice president of the United States (2025–present)
- John Thune · Senate majority leader (2025–present) from South Dakota (2005–present)
- Will Ainsworth · lieutenant governor of Alabama (2019–present)
- April Weaver · state senator from the 14th district (2021–present)
- Jim McClendon · former state senator from the 11th district (2014–2022)
- Glenn Thompson · PA-15 (2009–present)
- Jim Jordan · OH-4 (2007–present)
- Keith Self · TX-3 (2023–present)
- Tim Burchett · TN-2 (2019–present)
- Troy Nehls · TX-22 (2021–present)
- Warren Davidson · OH-8 (2016–present)
- Bernie Moreno · Ohio (2025–present)
- Cynthia Lummis · Wyoming (2021–present)
- David McIntosh · former IN-2 (1995–2001)
- Ed Henry · former state representative from the 9th district (2010–2018)
- Ken Johnson · former state representative from the 7th district (2010–2018)
- Kurt Wallace · state representative from the 42nd district (2010–present)
- Rick Scott · Florida (2019–present)
- Steve Daines · Montana (2015–present)
- Ted Budd · North Carolina (2023–present)
- Tim Scott · South Carolina (2013–present)
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- Alabama Farmers Federation
- Club for Growth
- Fairshake
- Republicans for National Renewal
- Senate Conservatives Fund
- Turning Point Action
Celebrity2
Celebrity · 2
- Brilyn Hollyhand · conservative activist
- Morgan Murphy · former national security advisor to incumbent Tommy Tuberville and former candidate for this seat
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-15Barry MooreH8AL02171 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$15.0K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$15.0K · 100%
Top spender
Constitutional Cons…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constitutional Conservatives Fund other · boosts R
| R | $15.0K | 100% | for Barry Moore |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 21
Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Apr 12
- Inside Elections · Apr 22
- RealClearPolitics · May 18
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Mar 3
The Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Likely RInside Elections
Safe RRealClearPolitics
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
12 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
12 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles12
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.17
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.17
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 17%
Neutral 83%
17% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets17%
Neutral83%
R-leaning outlets0%
17% of outlets classified by editorial lean
A
Alabama Primary Results 2026: Senate, House and Governor
N
The Latest: Trump-backed candidates secure GOP Senate nominations in Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma
W
The Latest: Trump-backed candidates secure GOP Senate nominations in Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma
A
Alabama U.S. Senate Runoff Election Live Results 2026
T
Trump notches primary win with Moore victory in Alabama Republican Senate runoff
P
Live Results: Alabama midterm primary runoffs
N
What Polls Say About Alabama’s Senate Primary Runoff
N
Alabama’s Senate Primary Runoff Again Tests Trump’s Hold on G.O.P.
A
A voter guide to Alabama’s primary runoffs
T
Alabama to choose candidates for Tuberville’s open Senate seat
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-15
Endorsements43 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage12 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks