Races · Senate · 2026 · Arkansas
Senate · class II · open seat
Hallie Shoffner vs Tom Cotton
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
Polling average rates this race Safe R (R+22.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+29.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+40.2 (10th pctile) to R+19.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 10.4% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
CITATIONS · safe-r · high-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +29.9
80% CI: R +40.2 → R +19.6 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +30.6
80% CI R +33.1 → R +26.7
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +22.0
80% CI R +26.7 → R +17.3
CV MAE 3.64
consensusMarket-implied
R +16.7
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 5¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 31 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 5% · polls 36%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Feb 9, 2026 · latest GrayHouse
Tom Cotton
VoteHub58.0%
VoteHub
Polling average58.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg58.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average58.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.0 pt above our average
Hallie Shoffner
VoteHub36.0%
VoteHub
Polling average36.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg36.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average36.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.0 pt above our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Feb 9, 2026): Tom Cotton 58.0%, Hallie Shoffner 36.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8 | Grayhouse+1For · Internal R-aligned | 550 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 36 · 58 |
Endorsements · 10 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet1
9
Endorsements tracked
Hallie Shoffner1 · 10%
Tom Cotton9 · 90%
Total10
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RTom Cotton9 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials6
Federal 5State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 6
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders · governor of Arkansas (2023–present)
- Bruce Westerman · AR-04 (2015–present)
- French Hill · AR-02 (2015–present)
- Rick Crawford · AR-01 (2011–present)
- Steve Womack · AR-03 (2011–present)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- AIPAC
- Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Arkansas Democrat-Gazette
DHallie Shoffner1 endorser
Most notable · Arkansas Democrat-Gazette
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Arkansas Democrat-Gazette
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-15Hallie ShoffnerS6AR00199 ↗
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$578.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$4.4K
Education · $4.4K
- University of Arkansas · $4.4K
Individuals $4.4K · PACs $0
Top contributors
WALMART$12.5K
UAMS$8.4K
BAPTIST HEALTH$6.4K
RUXTON VENTURES LLC$5.0K
GIBSON & KEITH PLLC$4.5K
Tom CottonS4AR00103 ↗
Receipts
$5.4M
Disburse
$3.1M
Cash on hand
$9.8M
Debts
$74.0K
Top industries
Securities & investment$138.7K
Securities & investment · $138.7K
- Goldman Sachs · $97.5K
- Blackstone · $41.2K
Individuals $138.7K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$16.9K
Lawyers / law firms · $16.9K
- Kirkland & Ellis LLP · $16.9K
Individuals $16.9K · PACs $0
Top contributors
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$187.0K
GOLDMAN SACHS$97.5K
BLACKSTONE$41.2K
STEPHENS INC.$36.3K
ENTREPRENEUR$29.8K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$2.5M
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$2.5M · 100%
Top spender
America One
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| America One super pac · boosts R
| R | $2.3M | 93% | against Hallie Shoffner |
| ARKANSANS FOR DEMOCRACY AND JUSTICE super pac · boosts R
| R | $179.9K | 7% | against Hallie Shoffner |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Apr 12
- The Economist · May 21
- Inside Elections · Apr 22
- RealClearPolitics · May 18
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Mar 3
The Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RRealClearPolitics
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-15
Endorsements10 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks