DemocratRunning for AR U.S. Senate · 2026
Hallie Shoffner
The 2026 United States Senate election in Arkansas will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arkansas . Incumbent Republican U.S. senator Tom Cotton is running for re-election to a third term.
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03
Democrat Hallie Shoffner won Arkansas's 2026 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. She trails incumbent Republican Tom Cotton in the November general election, with polling showing her at roughly 36% versus his 58%. Shoffner has raised about $1.6 million, with prediction markets assigning minimal win probability.
36%
Polling average
our aggregate
5%
Win probability
market-implied
$1.6M
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Shoffner's money comes from.
A
92/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans independent — pac independence is the standout.
0 watch items
Small-dollar reliance84
42% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence100
0% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding82
18% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$1.6M
Raised
$1.0M
Spent
$579k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
42% small (<$200)58% large indiv.0% PAC
82% in-state · 18% out-of-state (itemized)
Top contributors · bundled by employer / org
WALMART
$12k
UAMS
$8k
BAPTIST HEALTH
$6k
RUXTON VENTURES LLC
$5k
GIBSON & KEITH PLLC
$5k
UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS
$4k
Top industries · itemized $
Education$4k
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Race
The contest Shoffner is running in.
AR · SENATE · 2026safe r
Shoffner (D) vs Tom Cotton (R)
36%−22.0 Cotton58%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Shoffner and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Democrat
Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Republican
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Arkansas?
predictit · Republican Party
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Arkansas?
predictit · Democratic Party
Arkansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · Tom Cotton
Arkansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · vol $2 · Hallie Shoffner
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT.
Democrat · AR U.S. Senate
Hallie Shoffner
The 2026 United States Senate election in Arkansas will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arkansas . Incumbent Republican U.S. senator Tom Cotton is running for re-election to a third term.
Where Shoffner standsRace →
Shoffner 36%Tom Cotton 58%
Market · wins
5¢
36%
Poll avg
5%
Win prob
$1.6M
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03Democrat Hallie Shoffner won Arkansas's 2026 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. She trails incumbent Republican Tom Cotton in the November general election, with polling showing her at roughly 36% versus his 58%. Shoffner has raised about $1.6 million, with prediction markets assigning minimal win probability.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Shoffner's money comes from.
A
92/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans independent — pac independence is the standout.
0 watch items
Small-dollar reliance84
42% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence100
0% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding82
18% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$1.6M
Raised
$1.0M
Spent
$579k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
42% small (<$200)58% large indiv.0% PAC
82% in-state · 18% out-of-state (itemized)
Top industries · itemized $
Education$4k
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Related prediction markets
All markets →Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Democrat
Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Republican
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Arkansas?
predictit · Republican Party
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Arkansas?
predictit · Democratic Party
Arkansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · Tom Cotton
Arkansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · vol $2 · Hallie Shoffner
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT.