Races · Senate · 2026 · AR
Senate · class II · open seat

Hallie Shoffner vs Tom Cotton

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Safe R R +22.0 · 176 days to election · 1 polls · 4 markets Last poll 90d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 1 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 100% R

safe-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
R +38.7
80% CI: R +56.2 → R +21.2 · win prob 0%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used1
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +33.0
80% CI R +35.3 → R +27.8
CV MAE 7.21
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +22.0
80% CI R +26.6 → R +17.4
CV MAE 3.59
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
R +38.7
80% CI R +56.2 → R +21.2
CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
|Toggle:

All polls · 1 results

1 of 1 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
2/9/2026GrayHouse1.00R550±4.2LV
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+3
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 90d old
    Poll was fielded 90 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tom Cotton 58.0 · Hallie Shoffner 36.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 20 total
Hallie Shoffner (D)
6 endorsements · source
Newspapers (1)
  • Arkansas Democrat-Gazette — [ 15 ]
Other (5)
  • 50 — 60%
  • 60 — 70%
  • 70 — 80%
  • 80 — 90%
  • 90 — 100%
Tom Cotton (R)
14 endorsements · source
Elected officials (2)
  • Donald Trump — president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present) [ 4 ]
  • Sarah Huckabee Sanders — governor of Arkansas (2023–present) and former White House Press Secretary (2017–2019) [ 5 ]
Newspapers (1)
  • Arkansas Democrat-Gazette — [ 8 ]
Other (11)
  • 50 — 60%
  • 60 — 70%
  • 70 — 80%
  • 80 — 90%
  • 90 — 100%
  • AIPAC — [ 6 ]
  • Bruce Westerman — AR-04 (2015–present) [ 5 ]
  • French Hill — AR-02 (2015–present) [ 5 ]
  • Rick Crawford — AR-01 (2011–present) [ 5 ]
  • Steve Womack — AR-03 (2011–present) [ 5 ]
  • Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America — [ 7 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe R Jan 12 -22.0 -18.0 -4.0
Inside Elections Safe R Jan 12 -22.0 -18.0 -4.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R Jan 29 -22.0 -18.0 -4.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 3 months ago (2/9/2026) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/3/2026 Safe R R+22.0 via polls

In the news

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