Races · Senate · 2026 · Colorado
Senate · class II · open seat
Colorado Senate
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 32d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 94% D
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 97%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+12.3 with an 80% CI ranging from D+2.1 (10th pctile) to D+22.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 94% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 4.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 82/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (20.5pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
82
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width68
20.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution68 / 100
Measured20.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement17
3.4pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution17 / 100
Measured3.4pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +12.3
80% CI: D +2.1 → D +22.6 · win prob 94%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +8.9
80% CI D +5.6 → D +20.9
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +16.6
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 95¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago
Endorsements · 23 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet23
Endorsements tracked
John Hickenlooper23 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total23
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJohn Hickenlooper23 endorsers
Most notable · Elizabeth Warren · Massachusetts (2013–present)
Organizations19
Organizations · 19
- 314 Action
- AIPAC
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
- Brady Campaign
- Center for New Liberalism
- Colorado Professional Fire Fighters
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- J Street
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters Action Fund
- Natural Resources Defense Council
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- SMART · Local 9
- UA Pipefitters Union · Local 208
- Western States Regional Council of Carpenters
Elected officials3
Federal 3State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- Elizabeth Warren · Massachusetts (2013–present)
- John Salazar · former CO-03 (2005–2011)
- Michael Bennet · Colorado (2009–present)
Other1
Other · 1
- Ken Salazar · former ambassador to Mexico (2021–2025)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-30John HickenlooperS0CO00575 ↗
Receipts
$7.7M
Disburse
$6.2M
Cash on hand
$3.0M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$41.0K
Securities & investment · $41.0K
- Apollo Global Management · $24.5K
- Apollo · $16.5K
Individuals $41.0K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$29.3K
Lawyers / law firms · $29.3K
- Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, LLP · $15.3K
- Clifford Law Offices · $14.0K
Individuals $29.3K · PACs $0
Electric utilities$25.0K
Electric utilities · $25.0K
- Nextera Energy · $25.0K
Individuals $25.0K · PACs $0
TV / movies / music$19.8K
TV / movies / music · $19.8K
- Comcast · $19.8K
Individuals $19.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS$47.4K
NEXTERA ENERGY$25.0K
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$24.5K
COMCAST$19.8K
APOLLO$16.5K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$510.2K
D side
$510.2K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
COMMON SENSE ACTION…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COMMON SENSE ACTION FUND other · boosts D
| D | $300.0K | 59% | for John Hickenlooper |
| OUR FUTURE COLORADO other · boosts D
| D | $195.3K | 38% | for John Hickenlooper |
| National Association of Realtors Political Action Committee other · boosts D
| D | $14.8K | 3% | for John Hickenlooper |
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $194.01 | 0% | for John Hickenlooper |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Apr 12
- Inside Elections · Apr 22
- RealClearPolitics · May 18
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Mar 3
Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 21
The Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Likely DInside Elections
Safe DRealClearPolitics
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-30
Endorsements41 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks