Democratic primary · June 30, 2026
Colorado Senate Democratic primary
Field of 2 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 32d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
58
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (12.1pp).
Forecast CI width40
12.1pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution40 / 100
Measured12.1pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity75
2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution75 / 100
Measured2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 3 polls + fundamentals1John HickenlooperJohn Wright Hickenlooper Jr. ( / ˈ h ɪ k ən l uː p ər / HIK -ən-loop-ər ; born February 7, 1952) is an American politician, geologist, and b…
2Julie GonzalesJulie Gonzales ( Democratic Party ) is a member of the Colorado State Senate , representing District 34 . She assumed office on January 4, 2…
All polls · 3 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Hickenlooper | Gonzales | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8 | Colorado Community Research | 796 · LV | 41 | 34 | +7 |
| May 27 | Colorado Community Research | 796 · LV | 41 | 34 | +7 |
| Feb 24 | Data for Progress | 739 · LV | 45 | 13 | +32 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 41 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetJohn Hickenlooper · 23Julie Gonzales · 18
DJohn Hickenlooper23 endorsers
Most notable · Elizabeth Warren · Massachusetts (2013–present)
Organizations19
Organizations · 19
- 314 Action
- AIPAC
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
- Brady Campaign
- Center for New Liberalism
- Colorado Professional Fire Fighters
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- J Street
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters Action Fund
- Natural Resources Defense Council
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- SMART · Local 9
- UA Pipefitters Union · Local 208
- Western States Regional Council of Carpenters
Elected officials3
Federal 3State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- Elizabeth Warren · Massachusetts (2013–present)
- John Salazar · former CO-03 (2005–2011)
- Michael Bennet · Colorado (2009–present)
Other1
Other · 1
- Ken Salazar · former ambassador to Mexico (2021–2025)
DJulie Gonzales18 endorsers
Most notable · Robert Rodriguez · Senate majority leader (2023–present) from SD-32 (2019–present)
Organizations14
Organizations · 14
- AFL-CIO · o AFL-CIO
- Center for Biological Diversity · Action Fund
- Colorado State Association of Letter Carriers
- Communication Workers of America
- Indivisible
- Our Revolution
- Peace Action
- Progressive Victory
- SEIU · Colorado
- Sunrise Movement · Denver
- Third Act · Colorado
- Track AIPAC
- UFCW · Local 7
- Working Families Party · ies Party
Elected officials3
Federal 0State 3Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- Robert Rodriguez · Senate majority leader (2023–present) from SD-32 (2019–present)
- Joan Fitz-Gerald · former SD-16 (2001–2007)
- Polly Baca · former SD-25 (1979–1987)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Jane Fonda
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-06-30John HickenlooperS0CO00575 ↗
Raised
$7.72M
Cash on hand
$2.96M
Top industries
Securities & investment$41K
Securities & investment · $41K
- Apollo Global Management · $25K
- Apollo · $17K
Individuals $41K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$29K
Lawyers / law firms · $29K
- Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, LLP · $15K
- Clifford Law Offices · $14K
Individuals $29K · PACs $0
Electric utilities$25K
Electric utilities · $25K
- Nextera Energy · $25K
Individuals $25K · PACs $0
TV / movies / music$20K
TV / movies / music · $20K
- Comcast · $20K
Individuals $20K · PACs $0
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 3deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-30
Endorsements41 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks