Public domain
RepublicanRunning for AR U.S. Senate · 2026
Tom Cotton
Thomas Bryant Cotton (born May 13, 1977) is an American politician and former Army officer serving since 2015 as the junior United States senator from Arkansas . From 2013 to 2015 he served in the U.S. House of Representatives , representing Arkansas's 4th congressional district . He is a member of the Republican Party .
Born 1977 · Dardanelle, Arkansas , U.S.
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03
Tom Cotton, the Republican U.S. senator from Arkansas since 2015 and a former U.S. representative and Army officer, won his party's primary and is seeking the U.S. Senate seat in Arkansas. Polling shows him leading opponent Hallie Shoffner, about 58% to roughly 36%, and prediction markets put his odds of winning at around 100%. He has raised roughly $5 million in campaign funds.
58%
Polling average
our aggregate
97%
Win probability
market-implied
−4
Net favorability
latest public poll
$5.4M
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Cotton's money comes from.
C−
32/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans on concentrated money — pac independence is the weak spot.
3 watch items · pac independence
Small-dollar reliance26
13% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence0
27% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding13
87% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure90
$591k in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
What Cotton did in office.
MeasureYearAction
A bill to amend the FISA Amendments Act of 2008 to extend the authorities of title VII of the Foreign Intellig
Became Public Law No: 119-87.
2026
Became law
A bill to require the Secretary of Health and Human Services to review certain medical devices manufactured in
Read twice and referred to the Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions.
2026
Sponsored
FREEDOM Act
Read twice and referred to the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources.
2026
Sponsored
A bill to amend the FISA Amendments Act of 2008 to extend the authorities of title VII of the Foreign Intellig
Read twice and referred to the Select Committee on Intelligence.
2026
Sponsored
A bill to amend the FISA Amendments Act of 2008 to extend the authorities of title VII of the Foreign Intellig
Read twice and referred to the Select Committee on Intelligence.
2026
Sponsored
Biosecurity Smuggling Deterrence Act of 2026
Read twice and referred to the Committee on the Judiciary.
2026
Sponsored
Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027
Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 420.
2026
Sponsored
SPONSORED LEGISLATION VIA CONGRESS.GOV · ENACTED BILLS FIRST, THEN THE MOST RECENT · ROLE SHOWS THE BILL'S LATEST STATUS.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How Cotton votes
With the party, against it, and where on the spectrum.
Ideological placement · roll-call record
Dem median
GOP median
Cotton
← LiberalCenterConservative →
Center-right
Overall lean
79
DW-NOMINATE · 0–100
DW-NOMINATE FIRST-DIMENSION SCORE FROM ROLL-CALL VOTES IN THE 119TH CONGRESS (SENATE), VIA VOTEVIEW. 0 = MOST LIBERAL, 100 = MOST CONSERVATIVE.
Party unity · 838 roll-calls · 119th Congress (Senate)
100%voted with Republicans · 0% broke ranks
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
2002Law clerk
2002–2003
2013United States representative
2013–2015
2015United States senator
since 2015
—Senator
Public favorability
16%
Favorable
20%
Unfavorable
−4
Net
13% HAVE NO OPINION OR HAVEN'T HEARD ENOUGH · YOUGOV RATINGS TRACKER · N=1,312 U.S. ADULTS
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$5.4M
Raised
$3.1M
Spent
$9.8M
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
13% small (<$200)60% large indiv.27% PAC
13% in-state · 87% out-of-state (itemized)
Top contributors · bundled by employer / org
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS
$187k
GOLDMAN SACHS
$98k
BLACKSTONE
$41k
STEPHENS INC.
$36k
ENTREPRENEUR
$30k
PARADIGM
$26k
Top industries · itemized $
Securities & investment$139k
Lawyers / law firms$17k
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Race
The contest Cotton is running in.
AR · SENATE · 2026safe r
Cotton (R) vs Hallie Shoffner (D)
58%+22.0 Cotton36%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Cotton and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Democrat
Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Republican
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Arkansas?
predictit · Republican Party
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Arkansas?
predictit · Democratic Party
Arkansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · Tom Cotton
Arkansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · vol $2 · Hallie Shoffner
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Favorability
Published polls
YouGov ratings tracker · n=1,312 U.S. adults
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: U.S. SENATE PHOTO OFFICE · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
Republican · AR U.S. Senate
Tom Cotton
Thomas Bryant Cotton (born May 13, 1977) is an American politician and former Army officer serving since 2015 as the junior United States senator from Arkansas . From 2013 to 2015 he served in the U.S. House of Representatives , representing Arkansas's 4th congressional district . He is a member of the Republican Party .
Where Cotton standsRace →
Cotton 58%Hallie Shoffner 36%
Market · wins
97¢
−4 net fav
58%
Poll avg
97%
Win prob
−4
Net fav
$5.4M
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03Tom Cotton, the Republican U.S. senator from Arkansas since 2015 and a former U.S. representative and Army officer, won his party's primary and is seeking the U.S. Senate seat in Arkansas. Polling shows him leading opponent Hallie Shoffner, about 58% to roughly 36%, and prediction markets put his odds of winning at around 100%. He has raised roughly $5 million in campaign funds.
Governing & voting record
A bill to amend the FISA Amendments Act of 2008 to extend the authorities of title VII of the Foreign Intellig
2026 · BECAME LAW
A bill to require the Secretary of Health and Human Services to review certain medical devices manufactured in
2026 · SPONSORED
FREEDOM Act
2026 · SPONSORED
A bill to amend the FISA Amendments Act of 2008 to extend the authorities of title VII of the Foreign Intellig
2026 · SPONSORED
A bill to amend the FISA Amendments Act of 2008 to extend the authorities of title VII of the Foreign Intellig
2026 · SPONSORED
Biosecurity Smuggling Deterrence Act of 2026
2026 · SPONSORED
Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027
2026 · SPONSORED
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
2002Law clerk
2002–2003
2013United States representative
2013–2015
2015United States senator
since 2015
—Senator
Public favorability
16%
Favorable
20%
Unfavorable
−4
Net
13% HAVE NO OPINION OR HAVEN'T HEARD ENOUGH · YOUGOV RATINGS TRACKER · N=1,312 U.S. ADULTS
Independence scorecard
Who Cotton's money comes from.
C−
32/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans on concentrated money — pac independence is the weak spot.
3 watch items · pac independence
Small-dollar reliance26
13% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence0
27% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding13
87% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure90
$591k in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How Cotton votes
Ideological placement · roll-call record
Dem median
GOP median
Cotton
← LiberalCenterConservative →
Center-right
Overall lean
79
DW-NOMINATE · 0–100
DW-NOMINATE FIRST-DIMENSION SCORE FROM ROLL-CALL VOTES IN THE 119TH CONGRESS (SENATE), VIA VOTEVIEW. 0 = MOST LIBERAL, 100 = MOST CONSERVATIVE.
Party unity · 838 roll-calls · 119th Congress (Senate)
100%voted with Republicans · 0% broke ranks
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$5.4M
Raised
$3.1M
Spent
$9.8M
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
13% small (<$200)60% large indiv.27% PAC
13% in-state · 87% out-of-state (itemized)
Top industries · itemized $
Securities & investment$139k
Lawyers / law firms$17k
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Race
AR · SENATE · 2026safe r
Cotton (R) vs Hallie Shoffner (D)
58%+22.0 Cotton36%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Democrat
Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Republican
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Arkansas?
predictit · Republican Party
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Arkansas?
predictit · Democratic Party
Arkansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · Tom Cotton
Arkansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · vol $2 · Hallie Shoffner
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Favorability
Published polls
YouGov ratings tracker · n=1,312 U.S. adults
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: U.S. SENATE PHOTO OFFICE · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)