| 1/25/2026 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 1000 | ±3.0 | LV | 🟡105d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
105d old Poll was fielded 105 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Haley Stevens 47.0 · Mike Rogers 42.0 | pollarch |
| 1/25/2026 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 1000 | ±3.0 | LV | 🟡105d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
105d old Poll was fielded 105 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Abdul El-Sayed 43.0 · Mike Rogers 43.0 | pollarch |
| 1/25/2026 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 1000 | ±3.0 | LV | 🟡105d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
105d old Poll was fielded 105 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Mallory McMorrow 46.0 · Mike Rogers 43.0 | pollarch |
| 1/6/2026 | Glengariff Group | 0.81 | L(D+4.6) | 600 | ±4.0 | LV | 🟡124d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
124d old Poll was fielded 124 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: The Detroit News Commissioned by The Detroit News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Haley Stevens 47.0 · Mike Rogers 42.0 | pollarch |
| 1/6/2026 | Glengariff Group | 0.81 | L(D+4.6) | 600 | ±4.0 | LV | 🟡124d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
124d old Poll was fielded 124 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: The Detroit News Commissioned by The Detroit News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Abdul El-Sayed 47.0 · Mike Rogers 43.0 | pollarch |
| 1/6/2026 | Glengariff Group | 0.81 | L(D+4.6) | 600 | ±4.0 | LV | 🟡124d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
124d old Poll was fielded 124 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: The Detroit News Commissioned by The Detroit News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Mallory McMorrow 46.0 · Mike Rogers 43.0 | pollarch |
| 11/21/2025 | Mitchell Research & Communications | 1.00 | — | 616 | ±3.7 | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡170d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
170d old Poll was fielded 170 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Haley Stevens 40.0 · Mike Rogers 42.0 | pollarch |
| 11/21/2025 | Mitchell Research & Communications | 1.00 | — | 616 | ±3.7 | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡170d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
170d old Poll was fielded 170 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Abdul El-Sayed 38.0 · Mike Rogers 41.0 | pollarch |
| 11/21/2025 | Mitchell Research & Communications | 1.00 | — | 616 | ±3.7 | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡170d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
170d old Poll was fielded 170 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Mallory McMorrow 38.0 · Mike Rogers 44.0 | pollarch |
| 11/11/2025 | EPIC MRA | 1.00 | —(D+0.8) | 600 | ±4.0 | RV | 🟡180d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
180d old Poll was fielded 180 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Detroit Free Press Commissioned by Detroit Free Press, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Haley Stevens 44.0 · Mike Rogers 42.0 | pollarch |
| 11/11/2025 | EPIC MRA | 1.00 | —(D+0.8) | 600 | ±4.0 | RV | 🟡180d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
180d old Poll was fielded 180 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Detroit Free Press Commissioned by Detroit Free Press, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Mallory McMorrow 43.0 · Mike Rogers 42.0 | pollarch |
| 10/25/2025 | Rosetta Stone Communications | 1.00 | R | 637 | ±3.9 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
197d old Poll was fielded 197 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Haley Stevens 40.0 · Mike Rogers 47.0 | pollarch |
| 10/25/2025 | Rosetta Stone Communications | 1.00 | R | 637 | ±3.9 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
197d old Poll was fielded 197 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Abdul El-Sayed 31.0 · Mike Rogers 45.0 | pollarch |
| 10/25/2025 | Rosetta Stone Communications | 1.00 | R | 637 | ±3.9 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
197d old Poll was fielded 197 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Mallory McMorrow 39.0 · Mike Rogers 46.0 | pollarch |
| 6/16/2025 | Normington Petts | 1.00 | — | 700 | ±3.7 | LV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
328d old Poll was fielded 328 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Haley Stevens 47.0 · Mike Rogers 45.0 | pollarch |
| 6/16/2025 | Normington Petts | 1.00 | — | 700 | ±3.7 | LV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
328d old Poll was fielded 328 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Mallory McMorrow 44.0 · Mike Rogers 48.0 | pollarch |
| 5/8/2025 | Glengariff Group | 0.81 | L(D+4.6) | 600 | ±4.0 | RV | 🟡367d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
367d old Poll was fielded 367 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Haley Stevens 45.0 · Mike Rogers 44.0 | pollarch |
| 5/8/2025 | Glengariff Group | 0.81 | L(D+4.6) | 600 | ±4.0 | RV | 🟡367d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
367d old Poll was fielded 367 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Abdul El-Sayed 41.0 · Mike Rogers 47.0 | pollarch |
| 5/8/2025 | Glengariff Group | 0.81 | L(D+4.6) | 600 | ±4.0 | RV | 🟡367d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
367d old Poll was fielded 367 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Mallory McMorrow 42.0 · Mike Rogers 46.0 | pollarch |
| 5/8/2025 | Glengariff Group | 0.81 | L(D+4.6) | 600 | ±4.0 | RV | 🟡367d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
367d old Poll was fielded 367 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Haley Stevens 45.0 · Bill Huizenga 39.0 | pollarch |
| 5/8/2025 | Glengariff Group | 0.81 | L(D+4.6) | 600 | ±4.0 | RV | 🟡367d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
367d old Poll was fielded 367 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Abdul El-Sayed 41.0 · Bill Huizenga 41.0 | pollarch |
| 5/8/2025 | Glengariff Group | 0.81 | L(D+4.6) | 600 | ±4.0 | RV | 🟡367d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
367d old Poll was fielded 367 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Mallory McMorrow 41.0 · Bill Huizenga 41.0 | pollarch |
| 3/13/2025 | Mitchell Research | 1.09 | neutral(R+0.0) | 688 | ±3.7 | LV | 🟡423d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
423d old Poll was fielded 423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.
| Dana Nessel 45.0 · Mike Rogers 44.0 | pollarch |
| 3/13/2025 | Mitchell Research | 1.09 | neutral(R+0.0) | 688 | ±3.7 | LV | 🟡423d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
423d old Poll was fielded 423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.
| Dana Nessel 45.0 · Tudor Dixon 45.0 | pollarch |
| 3/13/2025 | Mitchell Research | 1.09 | neutral(R+0.0) | 688 | ±3.7 | LV | 🟡423d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
423d old Poll was fielded 423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.
| Gretchen Whitmer 47.0 · Brian Posthumus 41.0 | pollarch |
| 3/13/2025 | Mitchell Research | 1.09 | neutral(R+0.0) | 688 | ±3.7 | LV | 🟡423d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
423d old Poll was fielded 423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.
| Gretchen Whitmer 47.0 · Mike Rogers 44.0 | pollarch |
| 3/13/2025 | Mitchell Research | 1.09 | neutral(R+0.0) | 688 | ±3.7 | LV | 🟡423d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
423d old Poll was fielded 423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.
| Gretchen Whitmer 46.0 · Peter Meijer 40.0 | pollarch |
| 3/13/2025 | Mitchell Research | 1.09 | neutral(R+0.0) | 688 | ±3.7 | LV | 🟡423d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
423d old Poll was fielded 423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.
| Gretchen Whitmer 47.0 · Tudor Dixon 46.0 | pollarch |
| 3/6/2025 | Target Insyght | 1.00 | — | 600 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡430d old+1- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
430d old Poll was fielded 430 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
| Haley Stevens 35.0 · Mike Rogers 41.0 | pollarch |
| 3/6/2025 | Target Insyght | 1.00 | — | 600 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡430d old+1- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
430d old Poll was fielded 430 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
| Pete Buttigieg 46.0 · Mike Rogers 44.0 | pollarch |
| 3/6/2025 | Target Insyght | 1.00 | — | 600 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡430d old+1- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
430d old Poll was fielded 430 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
| Gretchen Whitmer 42.0 · Mike Rogers 41.0 | pollarch |
| 2/8/2025 | EPIC MRA | 1.00 | —(D+0.8) | 600 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡456d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
456d old Poll was fielded 456 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Detroit Free Press Commissioned by Detroit Free Press, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Pete Buttigieg 41.0 · Mike Rogers 47.0 | pollarch |
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