Races · Senate · 2026 · Michigan

Senate · class II · open seat · provisional matchup

Democrat vs Mike Rogers

Likely matchup — the Democratic nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.

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Tilt DD +1.7 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 73 polls · 10 marketsLast poll 6d agoMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
58% Democrat (D)
42% Rogers (R)
Win probability
Democrat58% (D)
Mike Rogers42% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +1.7
80% CIR+8.6 → D+11.9
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +1.7 · 80% CI R+8.6 → D+11.9 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

D +0.1 pp/wk

stable · 30d

Tipping-point P

5.5%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 71¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

121

articles · new

Info · primary pending

The Democratic nominee hasn't been chosen yet

3 Democratic candidates remain. See the democratic primary →
Primary August 4, 2026.

Where this race stands

Verified

Haley Stevens (D) and Mike Rogers (R) face off for Michigan's U.S. Senate seat on November 3, 2026. The race rates tilt-D with a polling-derived margin of 1 point. The most recent survey, by Quantus Insights through June 30, 2026 among 947 likely voters, shows Stevens leading Rogers 45%–44% [1]. Prediction markets put the Democratic candidate's win probability at 72.5% on Polymarket [4] and 71% on Kalshi [5], while PredictIt prices the same outcome at 68% [6].

CITATIONS · tilt-d · high-tipping · stable · uncertainty-medium · market-disagreement-medium

How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain

Combined

Medium uncertainty

Main driver: wide forecast CI (20.5pp).

Forecast CI width68

20.5pp 80% interval

Inter-model disagreement22

4.3pp across models

Pollster dispersion33

3.3pp cross-pollster spread

Polling sparsity0

29 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +1.7

80% CI: R +8.6 → D +11.9 · win prob 58%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · high

Polls used	73
Days to election	118
Residual σ	8.01pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +4.1

80% CI D +1.1 → D +8.5

CV MAE 8.51

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

R +0.2

80% CI R +1.6 → D +1.2

CV MAE 1.08

consensusMarket-implied

D +4.8

no interval

market-implied

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
28323640444852DEMOCRAT 44.0ROGERS 43.2MAR '25NOV '25JUN '26
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 71¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago

DisagreementMarkets are 27 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 71% · polls 44%.

Cross-platform price · history

60¢70¢80¢90¢398 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWJun 4Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?”	73¢	27¢	+0¢	—	+2
Kalshi “Michigan Senate winner? (Person)”	71¢	31¢	+0¢	$10K	+1
Predictit “Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Michigan…”	68¢	31¢	+0¢	—	-3

Predictit sits 2¢ below consensus.

External cross-checkExternal

Not part of our model or polling average

VoteHubaggregator ↗

19 polls · through Jun 30, 2026 · latest Quantus Insights

Haley Stevens

VoteHub44.2%

no matching candidate in our average

Mallory McMorrow

VoteHub43.2%

no matching candidate in our average

Abdul El-Sayed

VoteHub43.0%

no matching candidate in our average

Mike Rogers

VoteHub41.8%

PoliAgg avg43.2%

Δ 1.4 pt below our average

VoteHub's independent average across 19 polls (through Jun 30, 2026): Haley Stevens 44.2%, Mallory McMorrow 43.2%.

Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.

All polls · 73 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Jun 30, 26	Quantus InsightsFor · Quantus Insights	947 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+4.5d lean	45 · 44
Jun 30, 26	Quantus InsightsFor · Quantus Insights	947 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+4.5d lean	45 · 44
Jun 29, 26	Quantus Insights+1For · Internal R-aligned	947 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+4.5d lean	45 · 44
Jun 29, 26	Quantus Insights+1For · Internal R-aligned	947 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+4.5d lean	44 · 45
Jun 29, 26	Quantus Insights+1For · Internal R-aligned	947 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+4.5d lean	45 · 44
Jun 16, 26	Zenith Research	602 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+4.3d lean	43 · 42
Jun 16, 26	Zenith Research	602 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+4.3d lean	44 · 42
Jun 16, 26	Zenith Research	602 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+4.3d lean	45 · 42
Jun 16, 26	Mitchell ResearchFor · RealClearPolitics	827 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	41 · 45
Jun 16, 26	Mitchell ResearchFor · RealClearPolitics	827 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	47 · 42
Jun 13, 26	Zenith Research+1For · Internal D-aligned	602 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+4.3d lean	45 · 42
Jun 13, 26	Zenith Research+1For · Internal D-aligned	602 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+4.3d lean	44 · 42
Jun 13, 26	Zenith Research+1For · Internal D-aligned	602 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+4.3d lean	43 · 42
Jun 12, 26	Mitchell Research & CommunicationsFor · RealClearPolitics	827 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	47 · 42
Jun 12, 26	Mitchell Research & CommunicationsFor · RealClearPolitics	827 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	41 · 47
Jun 12, 26	Mitchell Research & CommunicationsFor · RealClearPolitics	827 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	41 · 45
Jun 3, 26	Tulchin ResearchFor · Internal D-aligned	500 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	46 · 41
May 31, 26	TIPPFor · League of American Workers	1,154 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+3.8d lean	48 · 41
May 31, 26	TIPPFor · League of American Workers	1,154 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+3.8d lean	45 · 42
May 31, 26	TIPPFor · League of American Workers	1,154 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+3.8d lean	43 · 42
May 22, 26	TIPP Insights+1For · Internal R-aligned	1,456 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	+2.7decoupled	40 · 40
May 22, 26	TIPP Insights+1For · Internal R-aligned	1,456 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	+2.7decoupled	42 · 39
May 22, 26	TIPP Insights+1For · Internal R-aligned	1,456 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	+2.7decoupled	45 · 38
May 13, 26	Mitchell Research+1For · RealClearPolitics	607 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	39 · 42
May 13, 26	Mitchell Research+1For · RealClearPolitics	607 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	41 · 43
May 13, 26	Mitchell Research+1For · RealClearPolitics	607 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	41 · 42
May 11, 26	Glengariff Group	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	42 · 44
May 11, 26	Glengariff Group	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	41 · 43
May 11, 26	Glengariff Group	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	40 · 45
May 6, 26	Mitchell Research+2For · RealClearPolitics	607 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	39 · 42
May 6, 26	Mitchell Research+2For · RealClearPolitics	607 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	41 · 42
May 6, 26	Mitchell Research+2For · RealClearPolitics	607 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	41 · 43
Apr 30, 26	Glengariff Group	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	42 · 44
Apr 30, 26	Glengariff Group	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	40 · 45
Apr 30, 26	Glengariff Group	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	41 · 43
Jan 28, 26	Emerson CollegeFor · Emerson Polling	1,000 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	47 · 42
Jan 28, 26	Emerson CollegeFor · Emerson Polling	1,000 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	46 · 43
Jan 28, 26	Emerson CollegeFor · Emerson Polling	1,000 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	43 · 43
Jan 24, 26	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	1,000 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	47 · 42
Jan 24, 26	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	1,000 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	43 · 43
Jan 24, 26	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	1,000 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	46 · 43
Jan 13, 26	Glengariff GroupFor · WDIV	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	44 · 44
Jan 13, 26	Glengariff GroupFor · WDIV	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	42 · 46
Jan 13, 26	Glengariff GroupFor · WDIV	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	42 · 48
Jan 5, 26	Glengariff Group+1For · The Detroit News	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	47 · 42
Jan 5, 26	Glengariff Group+1For · The Detroit News	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	47 · 43
Jan 5, 26	Glengariff Group+1For · The Detroit News	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	46 · 43
Dec 1, 25	Mitchell Research	616 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	40 · 42
Dec 1, 25	Mitchell Research	616 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	38 · 44
Dec 1, 25	Mitchell Research	616 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	38 · 41
Nov 20, 25	Mitchell Research & Communications	616 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	40 · 42
Nov 20, 25	Mitchell Research & Communications	616 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	38 · 41
Nov 20, 25	Mitchell Research & Communications	616 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	38 · 44
Nov 13, 25	EPIC-MRAFor · EPIC-MRA	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.89 tracked	+0.3aligned	44 · 42
Nov 13, 25	EPIC-MRAFor · EPIC-MRA	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.89 tracked	+0.3aligned	43 · 42
Nov 10, 25	EPIC-MRA+1For · Detroit Free Press	600 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.89 tracked	+0.3aligned	44 · 42
Nov 10, 25	EPIC-MRA+1For · Detroit Free Press	600 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.89 tracked	+0.3aligned	43 · 42
Nov 5, 25	Rosetta Stone	637 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	40 · 47
Nov 5, 25	Rosetta Stone	637 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	39 · 46
Nov 5, 25	Rosetta Stone	637 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	31 · 45
Oct 24, 25	Rosetta Stone Communications+1For · Internal R-aligned	637 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	40 · 47
Oct 24, 25	Rosetta Stone Communications+1For · Internal R-aligned	637 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	31 · 45
Oct 24, 25	Rosetta Stone Communications+1For · Internal R-aligned	637 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	39 · 46
Jun 15, 25	Normington Petts+1For · Internal D-aligned	700 · LV	D-LEAN	—	—	47 · 45
Jun 15, 25	Normington Petts+1For · Internal D-aligned	700 · LV	D-LEAN	—	—	44 · 48
May 27, 25	Glengariff Group	600 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	45 · 44
May 27, 25	Glengariff Group	600 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	42 · 46
May 27, 25	Glengariff Group	600 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	41 · 47
May 7, 25	Glengariff Group	600 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	45 · 44
May 7, 25	Glengariff Group	600 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	41 · 47
May 7, 25	Glengariff Group	600 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	42 · 46
Mar 7, 25	Target Insyght	600 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	—	35 · 41
Mar 5, 25	Target Insyght	600 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	35 · 41

· 73 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 21 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

Rogers · 100%21
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Mike Rogers21 · 100%
Total21
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

RMike Rogers21 endorsers

Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)

Elected officials17

Federal 7State 10Local 0

Organizations4

DDemocrat0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-07-04

Haley StevensS6MI00426 ↗

Receipts

$8.9M

Disburse

$5.5M

Cash on hand

$3.4M

Debts

$56.6K

Cumulative receipts · 4 filings

Top industries

Lawyers / law firms$34.3K

Securities & investment$31.0K

Top contributors

BLACKSTONE$31.0K

NYMAN TURKISH PC$21.0K

BROWNSTEIN HYATT FARBER SCHRECK, LLP$19.4K

INVARIANT$18.5K

GIBSON, DUNN & CRUTCHER, LLP$14.9K

Mike RogersS4MI00595 ↗

Receipts

$7.7M

Disburse

$3.7M

Cash on hand

$4.3M

Debts

Cumulative receipts · 5 filings

Top industries

Securities & investment$27.5K

Oil & gas$15.0K

Top contributors

INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$43.9K

BLACKSTONE$27.5K

MOTOROLA SOLUTIONS$21.0K

CONTINUUM VENTURES$21.0K

CORRIGAN OIL$15.0K

Abdul El-SayedS6MI00418 ↗

Receipts

$7.6M

Disburse

$5.1M

Cash on hand

$2.5M

Debts

Cumulative receipts · 4 filings

Top industries

Education$53.6K

Computers / electronics$47.3K

Internet$34.1K

Health professionals$14.8K

Top contributors

HENRY FORD HEALTH$57.0K

GOOGLE$34.1K

UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN$32.9K

APPLE$31.0K

COREWELL HEALTH$26.2K

Mallory McMorrowS6MI00392 ↗

Receipts

$8.6M

Disburse

$4.9M

Cash on hand

$3.7M

Debts

Cumulative receipts · 4 filings

Top industries

Education$43.9K

Top contributors

UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN$23.5K

ANTHROPIC$21.0K

DYKEMA GOSSETT PLLC$15.0K

CANE INVESTMENTS, LLC$14.0K

FUTURE BEING, LLC$14.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$28.1M

D side

$19.4M · 69%

R side

$8.8M · 31%

Top spender

A Stronger Michigan

For / against split

For Stevens $19.3M

Against Rogers $7.1K

For Rogers $8.8M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
A Stronger Michigan	D	$9.6M	34%	for Haley Stevens
UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT (UDP)	D	$8.6M	31%	for Haley Stevens
Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action	R	$4.3M	15%	for Mike Rogers
GLCF, INC.	R	$1.9M	7%	for Mike Rogers
The Sentinel Action Fund	R	$1.4M	5%	for Mike Rogers
SLF PAC	R	$1.1M	4%	for Mike Rogers
CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEE	D	$1000.0K	4%	for Haley Stevens
National Nurses United for Patient Protection	D	$489.7K	2%	for Abdul El-Sayed
Common Defense Action Fund	D	$289.7K	1%	for Abdul El-Sayed
FIRST PRINCIPLES DIGITAL	R	$91.8K	0%	for Mike Rogers

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean D1

Tossup4

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Apr 12

The Economist

Lean D

May 21

Inside Elections

Tossup

Apr 22

RealClearPolitics

Tossup

May 18

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Tossup

Mar 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.