The week ending July 5, 2026 produced four rating changes on the 2026 midterm forecasting model. The Michigan Senate race moved from Tilt-Republican to Tilt-Democratic — one of the largest single-day cross-party shifts of the cycle — after Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Dr. Abdul El-Sayed on July 2.[1] Texas's 28th congressional district flipped from Likely-Democratic to Likely-Republican on new poll data. South Carolina's Senate contest moved from Likely-Republican to Lean-Republican, and North Carolina's 1st congressional district shifted from Tilt-Democratic to Lean-Democratic. Newsweek also published a state-by-state map of President Trump's approval ratings on Independence Day.
Michigan Senate — Michigan's open Senate seat, created when Sen. Gary Peters announced he would not seek re-election, moved from Tilt-Republican to Tilt-Democratic on July 4. The updated consensus margin stands at D+1.0pp, with a model forecast of D+1.5pp and a 57.6% Democratic win probability. Prediction markets placed the Democratic win probability at 70.5% (Polymarket) and 70.75% (Kalshi).
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Dr. Abdul El-Sayed on July 2, the first time she has taken a side in a contested Senate primary this cycle.[1] Support for Israel has been a dividing issue in the race, given Michigan's sizable Arab American and Jewish voter blocs in and around Detroit.
A Quantus Insights poll (n=947, ±3.3pp, LV, field ending June 30) showed El-Sayed leading Republican Mike Rogers 45%–44%, Stevens leading Rogers 45%–44%, and McMorrow trailing Rogers 44%–45% in three separate general-election matchups. A Zenith Research poll (n=602, ±4.0pp, LV, field ending June 17) showed Stevens at 43% to Rogers's 42% and McMorrow at 44% to Rogers's 42%. State Sen. McMorrow received the endorsement of the Detroit Free Press editorial board in the Democratic primary.
- Texas 28th District (TX-28): Shifted from Likely-Democratic to Likely-Republican — the largest cross-party rating reversal in the week's data. A Pulse Science Decision poll (n=400, ±4.9pp, LV, field ending June 23) showed Republican Tano Tijerina at 46% and Democrat Henry Cuellar at 38%.
- South Carolina Senate: Shifted from Likely-Republican to Lean-Republican, to a consensus margin of R+4.0pp. An Impact Research poll (n=700, ±3.7pp, LV, field ending June 22, D-aligned sponsor) showed Lindsey Graham at 48% and Annie Andrews at 45%.
- North Carolina 1st District (NC-1): Shifted from Tilt-Democratic to Lean-Democratic, to a consensus margin of D+2.33pp. A GQR poll (n=500, LV, field ending June 28, D-aligned sponsor) showed Don Davis (D) at 45%, Laurie Buckhout (R) at 41%, and Tom Bailey (L) at 8%.