Races · Governor · 2026 · Wisconsin
Governor · open seat · provisional matchup
Democrat vs Tom Tiffany
Likely matchup — the Democratic nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.
Info · primary pending
The Democratic nominee hasn't been chosen yet
4 Democratic candidates remain. See the democratic primary →
Primary August 11, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 61% D · market gap 12pp
Polling average rates this race Lean D (D+2.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+2.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+8.6 (10th pctile) to D+13.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 61% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 18.8% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Uncertainty score: 52/100 (medium). Polls and forecasts agree at a moderate level.
Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 61%, market says 73% — 12pp gap.
CITATIONS · lean-d · high-tipping · uncertainty-medium · market-disagreement-medium
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
53
Medium uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (22.0pp).
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement18
3.6pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution18 / 100
Measured3.6pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion8
0.8pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution8 / 100
Measured0.8pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity63
3 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution63 / 100
Measured3 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +2.4
80% CI: R +8.6 → D +13.3 · win prob 61%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 13 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +5.5
80% CI R +11.1 → D +10.8
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +1.9
80% CI D +0.6 → D +3.2
CV MAE 1.01
consensusMarket-implied
D +6.4
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 76¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 29 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 76% · polls 47%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
13 polls · through May 15, 2026 · latest The Public Sentiment Institute
Sara Rodriguez
VoteHub42.0%
VoteHub
Polling average42.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Mandela Barnes
VoteHub41.8%
VoteHub
Polling average41.8%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
David Crowley
VoteHub40.5%
VoteHub
Polling average40.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Tom Tiffany
VoteHub40.1%
VoteHub
Polling average40.1%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg43.3%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average43.3%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 3.2 pt below our average
Francesca Hong
VoteHub39.0%
VoteHub
Polling average39.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
VoteHub's independent average across 13 polls (through May 15, 2026): Sara Rodriguez 42.0%, Mandela Barnes 41.8%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 13 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 26 | Wedgewood Polls | 707 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 48 · 44 |
| Jul 5, 26 | Wedgewood Polls | 707 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 47 · 42 |
| Jul 5, 26 | Wedgewood Polls | 707 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 47 · 44 |
| Mar 22, 26 | TIPPFor · League of American Workers | 1,175 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +3.8d lean | 43 · 41 |
| Mar 22, 26 | TIPPFor · League of American Workers | 1,175 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +3.8d lean | 44 · 41 |
| Mar 22, 26 | TIPPFor · League of American Workers | 1,175 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +3.8d lean | 42 · 41 |
| Mar 22, 26 | TIPPFor · League of American Workers | 1,175 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +3.8d lean | 40 · 43 |
| Mar 18, 26 | TIPP Insights+2For · Internal R-aligned | 1,175 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +2.7decoupled | 43 · 41 |
| Mar 18, 26 | TIPP Insights+2For · Internal R-aligned | 1,175 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +2.7decoupled | 42 · 41 |
| Mar 18, 26 | TIPP Insights+2For · Internal R-aligned | 1,175 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +2.7decoupled | 40 · 43 |
Endorsements · 19 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet19
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Tom Tiffany19 · 100%
Total19
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RTom Tiffany19 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials14
Federal 10State 3Local 0
Elected officials · 14
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- JD Vance · vice-president of the United States (2025–present)
- Tom Emmer · House Majority Whip (2023–present) from MN-06 (2015–present)
- Kelly Armstrong · governor of North Dakota (2024–present)
- Bryan Steil · WI-01 (2019–present)
- Derrick Van Orden · WI-03 (2023–present)
- Glenn Grothman · WI-06 (2015–present)
- Jim Jordan · OH-04 (2007–present)
- Scott Fitzgerald · WI-05 (2021–present)
- Tony Wied · WI-08 (2024–present)
- Troy Nehls · TX-22 (2021–present)
- Tommy Thompson · former governor (1987–2001) and former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services (2001–2005)
- Angie Sapik · former state representative from the 73rd district (2023–2025)
- Harriet Hageman · WY-AL (2023–present)
Organizations5
Organizations · 5
- Americans for Prosperity · Wisconsin
- College Republicans · of America
- Republican Party of Wisconsin
- Turning Point Action
- Young Republicans · epublicans
DDemocrat0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Mandela Barnes
Receipts
$1
Disburse
$4.7K
Cash on hand
—
Debts
—
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Tom Tiffany
Receipts
$1
Disburse
$0
Cash on hand
—
Debts
—
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tossup4
Tossup · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Cook Political Report
TossupInside Elections
TossupRealClearPolitics
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
TossupDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
88 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles88
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.02
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.06 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.02
Week-over-weekshift +0.06 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 2%
Neutral 98%
2% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets2%
Neutral98%
R-leaning outlets0%
2% of outlets classified by editorial lean
K
Could a Democratic Socialist win the race for Wisconsin governor?
I
Hong candidacy tempts Wisconsin’s progressive voters
N
Socialist Francesca Hong’s Chances of Beating GOP in Wisconsin: Polls
K
In Wisconsin, key primary approaching this August in open governor's race
W
Wisconsin governor candidates make Northeast Wisconsin stops as primary approaches
M
Hong Leads Latest Wisconsin Dem Gov’s Race Poll
W
A breakdown of who’s running for Wisconsin Governor ahead of August primary
M
Milfred and Hands interview Wisconsin candidates for governor
J
DSA candidate for Wisconsin governor appears with streamer who called Jews ‘demonic’
U
Wisconsin Families Are Still Paying for Tom Tiffany’s Big Beautiful Vote
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified13 / 13deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements79 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks