Democratic primary · August 11, 2026
Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary
Field of 4 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
76
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (23.0pp).
Forecast CI width77
23.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution77 / 100
Measured23.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity75
2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution75 / 100
Measured2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 6 polls + fundamentals1Mandela BarnesJ. Mandela Barnes (born Jesse Mandela Barnes , December 1, 1986) is an American politician who served as the 45th lieutenant governor of Wis…
2Francesca HongFrancesca Hong ( Democratic Party ) is a member of the Wisconsin State Assembly , representing District 76 . She assumed office on January 4…
3Sara RodriguezSara Rodriguez ( Democratic Party ) is the Lieutenant Governor of Wisconsin . She assumed office on January 2, 2023. Her current term ends o…
4David CrowleyDavid Crowley is the Milwaukee County Executive in Wisconsin. He assumed office on May 4, 2020. His current term ends in 2028.
5Kelda Roys
6Brennan
7Missy Hughes
8Hulsey
9Roper
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 15 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Barnes | Hong | Rodriguez | Crowley | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 26 | Wedgewood Polls | 413 · LV | 28 | 30 | 19 | — | +2 |
| May 14, 26 | The Public Sentiment Institute | 880 · RV | 24 | 9 | 12 | 8 | +12 |
| Mar 23, 26 | Marquette Law School | 393 · RV | 11 | 14 | 3 | 3 | +3 |
| Mar 23, 26 | Marquette Law School | 393 · RV | 11 | 14 | 3 | 3 | +3 |
| Mar 17, 26 | Marquette University | 393 · RV | 11 | 14 | 3 | 3 | +3 |
| Mar 15, 26 | Patriot Polling | — · unknown | 18 | 27 | 6 | 6 | +9 |
| Feb 24, 26 | Marquette Law School | 394 · RV | 10 | 11 | 6 | 3 | +1 |
| Feb 24, 26 | Marquette Law School | 394 · RV | 10 | 11 | 6 | 3 | +1 |
| Feb 18, 26 | Marquette University | 394 · RV | 10 | 11 | 6 | 3 | +1 |
| Feb 16, 26 | TIPP | 646 · RV | 28 | 5 | 20 | 7 | +8 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 39 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetSara Rodriguez · 16Francesca Hong · 9Mandela Barnes · 9David Crowley · 5
DSara Rodriguez16 endorsers
Most notable · Austin Davis · lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania (2023–present)
Elected officials12
Federal 0State 11Local 0
Elected officials · 12
- Austin Davis · lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania (2023–present)
- Martin J. Schreiber · former governor of Wisconsin (1977–1979)
- Janis Ringhand · former state senator from the 15th district (2015–2023)
- Robert Wirch · state senator from the 22nd district (1997–present)
- Andrew Hysell · state representative from the 48th district (2025–present)
- Ben DeSmidt · state representative from the 65th district (2025–present)
- Beth Meyers · former state representative from the 74th district (2015–2023)
- Gary Hebl · former state representative from the 46th district (2005–2023)
- Joan Fitzgerald · state representative from the 46th district (2025–present)
- Maureen McCarville · state representative from the 42nd district (2025–present)
- Missy Hughes · former CEO of the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation (2019–2025)
- Sylvia Ortiz-Velez · state representative from the 8th district (2021–present)
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- 314 Action
- AFSCME · Council 32
- Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association
- Madison Common Council · ent of the Madison Common Council (2025–present) from the 5th district (2021–present)
DFrancesca Hong9 endorsers
Most notable · Nina Turner · former Ohio state senator from the 25th district (2008–2014)
Organizations5
Organizations · 5
- AAPI Victory Fund
- Center for Freethought Equality
- Democratic Socialists of America · ts of America
- Our Revolution
- Our Wisconsin Revolution
Elected officials3
Federal 2State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- Nina Turner · former Ohio state senator from the 25th district (2008–2014)
- Ilhan Omar · MN-05 (2019–present)
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Qasim Rashid · attorney
DMandela Barnes9 endorsers
Most notable · Adam Schiff · California (2024–present)
Elected officials6
Federal 1State 5Local 0
Elected officials · 6
- Adam Schiff · California (2024–present)
- Amaad Rivera-Wagner · state representative from the 90th district (2025–present)
- Angelina Cruz · state representative from the 62nd district (2025–present)
- Eric Genrich · mayor of Green Bay (2019–present) and former state representative from the 90th district (2013–2019)
- Sandy Pasch · former state representative from the 10th district (2013–2015) and 22nd district (2009–2013)
- Tod Ohnstad · former state representative from the 65th district (2013–2025)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- Collective PAC
- End Citizens United
- United Food and Commercial Workers · Local 1473
DDavid Crowley5 endorsers
Most notable · Cavalier Johnson · mayor of Milwaukee (2021–present)
Elected officials4
Federal 0State 1Local 2
Elected officials · 4
- Cavalier Johnson · mayor of Milwaukee (2021–present)
- Kalan Haywood · state representative from the 16th district (2019–present)
- Milwaukee Common Council · the Milwaukee Common Council (2022–present) from the 12th district (2012–present)
- Milwaukee County Board of Supervisors · aukee County Board of Supervisors (2020–present) from the 10th district (2016–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- International Association of Fire Fighters · Local 215
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing —No FEC committee filings yet for the Democratic primary candidates. Most primary candidates file quarterly; if the primary is recent the data may take a few weeks to appear.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
88 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles88
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.02
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.06 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.02
Week-over-weekshift +0.06 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 2%
Neutral 98%
2% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets2%
Neutral98%
R-leaning outlets0%
2% of outlets classified by editorial lean
K
Could a Democratic Socialist win the race for Wisconsin governor?
I
Hong candidacy tempts Wisconsin’s progressive voters
N
Socialist Francesca Hong’s Chances of Beating GOP in Wisconsin: Polls
K
In Wisconsin, key primary approaching this August in open governor's race
W
Wisconsin governor candidates make Northeast Wisconsin stops as primary approaches
M
Hong Leads Latest Wisconsin Dem Gov’s Race Poll
W
A breakdown of who’s running for Wisconsin Governor ahead of August primary
M
Milfred and Hands interview Wisconsin candidates for governor
J
DSA candidate for Wisconsin governor appears with streamer who called Jews ‘demonic’
U
Wisconsin Families Are Still Paying for Tom Tiffany’s Big Beautiful Vote
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 15deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements79 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks