Democratic primary · August 11, 2026
Vermont Governor Democratic primary
Field of 2 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
70
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (19.2pp).
Forecast CI width64
19.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution64 / 100
Measured19.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity75
2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution75 / 100
Measured2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 2 polls + fundamentals1Amanda JanooAmanda Janoo ( Democratic Party ) is running for election for Governor of Vermont . She is on the ballot in the Democratic primary on August…
2Aly RichardsAly Richards ( Democratic Party ) is running for election for Governor of Vermont . She is on the ballot in the Democratic primary on August…
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Janoo | Richards | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 511 · LV | 20 | 12 | +8 |
| Jun 22 | University of New Hampshire | 511 · LV | 20 | 12 | +8 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetDAmanda Janoo0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DAly Richards0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
In the news
12 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
12 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles12
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.25
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.20 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.25
Week-over-weekshift +0.20 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 25%
Neutral 75%
25% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets25%
Neutral75%
R-leaning outlets0%
25% of outlets classified by editorial lean
V
Scott sees job approval fall to new low, holds clear lead over Dem challengers
V
Scott sees job approval fall to new low, holds clear lead over Dem challengers
V
Phil Scott's approval numbers slipping, new poll finds
V
Candidates for Vermont governor and lieutenant governor report large fundraising hauls
B
Can Republican Gov. Phil Scott win another term in VT? See new poll
N
Who Is Ahead in Vermont's At-Large Congressional District?
Y
UNH poll: Scott’s approval rating down, but still leads vs. Janoo, Richards
W
This could be the year Democrats unseat Gov. Scott, pollster says
N
Who Is Ahead in the Vermont Governor's Race? Latest 2026 Election Polls
M
Poll says Vermont Gov. Phil Scott’s approval rating has declined, but remains high
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage12 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks