Races · Governor · 2026 · Vermont
Governor · open seat · provisional matchup
Democrat vs Phil Scott
Likely matchup — the Democratic nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.
Info · primary pending
The Democratic nominee hasn't been chosen yet
2 Democratic candidates remain. See the democratic primary →
Primary August 11, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
Polling average rates this race Safe R (R+15.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+27.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+38.5 (10th pctile) to R+16.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 29.1% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Polling has been stable (stable) over the 30d window.
Uncertainty score: 67/100 (high). Key drivers: wide forecast CI (22.0pp); models disagree by 30.0pp. Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-r · high-tipping · stable · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
67
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (22.0pp).
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement100
30.0pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution100 / 100
Measured30.0pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion5
0.5pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution5 / 100
Measured0.5pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity50
4 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution50 / 100
Measured4 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +27.5
80% CI: R +38.5 → R +16.5 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 4 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +2.5
80% CI R +38.1 → D +24.1
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +15.0
80% CI R +17.0 → R +13.1
CV MAE 1.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +12.3
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 10¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 16 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 10% · polls 26%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
2 polls · through Jun 23, 2026 · latest University of New Hampshire
Phil Scott
VoteHub41.5%
VoteHub
Polling average41.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg41.4%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average41.4%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.1 pt above our average
Amanda Janoo
VoteHub27.0%
VoteHub
Polling average27.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Ally Richards
VoteHub25.0%
VoteHub
Polling average25.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
VoteHub's independent average across 2 polls (through Jun 23, 2026): Phil Scott 41.5%, Amanda Janoo 27.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 4 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 887 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +1.4aligned | 27 · 42 |
| Jun 29 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 887 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +1.4aligned | 25 · 41 |
| Jun 22 | University of New HampshireFor · University of New Hampshire | 887 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 27 · 42 |
| Jun 22 | University of New HampshireFor · University of New Hampshire | 887 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 25 · 41 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRPhil Scott0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DDemocrat0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RRealClearPolitics
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
12 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
12 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles12
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.25
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.20 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.25
Week-over-weekshift +0.20 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 25%
Neutral 75%
25% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets25%
Neutral75%
R-leaning outlets0%
25% of outlets classified by editorial lean
V
Scott sees job approval fall to new low, holds clear lead over Dem challengers
V
Scott sees job approval fall to new low, holds clear lead over Dem challengers
V
Phil Scott's approval numbers slipping, new poll finds
V
Candidates for Vermont governor and lieutenant governor report large fundraising hauls
B
Can Republican Gov. Phil Scott win another term in VT? See new poll
N
Who Is Ahead in Vermont's At-Large Congressional District?
Y
UNH poll: Scott’s approval rating down, but still leads vs. Janoo, Richards
W
This could be the year Democrats unseat Gov. Scott, pollster says
N
Who Is Ahead in the Vermont Governor's Race? Latest 2026 Election Polls
M
Poll says Vermont Gov. Phil Scott’s approval rating has declined, but remains high
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 4deterministic
Polls flagged4needs review
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage12 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks