Races · Governor · 2026 · Texas
Governor · open seat
Texas Governor
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 79% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+7.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+18.0 (10th pctile) to D+4.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 79% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +7.0
80% CI: R +18.0 → D +4.0 · win prob 21%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 24 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models1 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +12.6
80% CI R +19.3 → R +0.2
CV MAE 8.51
Demographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
26 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
26 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles26
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.23
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.08 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.23
Week-over-weekshift −0.08 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 23%
Neutral 77%
23% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets23%
Neutral77%
R-leaning outlets0%
23% of outlets classified by editorial lean
U
New Texas polls show GOP gains in key statewide races
R
New Texas polls show GOP gains in key statewide races
M
Tuesday’s Campaign Round-Up, 6.30.26: Poll shows Talarico and Paxton tied in Texas
P
Talarico and Paxton tied in latest Texas Senate poll
D
Gina Hinojosa makes case as Texas Governor race advances
E
Gina Hinojosa, Gov. Greg Abbott on independents in Texas governor race
N
Texas 34th Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
S
Paxton vs. Talarico: New poll shows a tight race for U.S. Senate in Texas
N
Texas 33rd Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
K
Poll shows look at 2026 Texas governor, senate and lt. gov races
Page 1 of 3
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage26 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks