Republican primary · August 11, 2026
Wisconsin Governor Republican primary
Field of 1 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
82
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (19.1pp).
Forecast CI width64
19.1pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution64 / 100
Measured19.1pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 2 polls + fundamentals1Tom TiffanyTom Tiffany ( Republican Party ) is a member of the U.S. House , representing Wisconsin's 7th Congressional District . He assumed office on …
2Andy Manske
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 9 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Tiffany | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 26 | Marquette Law School | 396 · RV | 40 | — |
| Mar 17, 26 | Marquette University | 396 · RV | 40 | — |
| Mar 15, 26 | Patriot Polling | — · unknown | 65 | — |
| Feb 24, 26 | Marquette Law School | 371 · RV | 35 | — |
| Feb 18, 26 | Marquette University | 371 · RV | 35 | — |
| Nov 20, 25 | TIPP Insights | 586 · LV | 17 | — |
| Oct 21, 25 | Marquette University | 406 · RV | 23 | — |
| Sep 29, 25 | Platform Communications | — · unknown | 30 | — |
| Jul 30, 25 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 600 · LV | 40 | — |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 19 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetTom Tiffany · 19
RTom Tiffany19 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials14
Federal 10State 3Local 0
Elected officials · 14
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- JD Vance · vice-president of the United States (2025–present)
- Tom Emmer · House Majority Whip (2023–present) from MN-06 (2015–present)
- Kelly Armstrong · governor of North Dakota (2024–present)
- Bryan Steil · WI-01 (2019–present)
- Derrick Van Orden · WI-03 (2023–present)
- Glenn Grothman · WI-06 (2015–present)
- Jim Jordan · OH-04 (2007–present)
- Scott Fitzgerald · WI-05 (2021–present)
- Tony Wied · WI-08 (2024–present)
- Troy Nehls · TX-22 (2021–present)
- Tommy Thompson · former governor (1987–2001) and former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services (2001–2005)
- Angie Sapik · former state representative from the 73rd district (2023–2025)
- Harriet Hageman · WY-AL (2023–present)
Organizations5
Organizations · 5
- Americans for Prosperity · Wisconsin
- College Republicans · of America
- Republican Party of Wisconsin
- Turning Point Action
- Young Republicans · epublicans
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing —No FEC committee filings yet for the Republican primary candidates. Most primary candidates file quarterly; if the primary is recent the data may take a few weeks to appear.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
88 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles88
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.02
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.06 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.02
Week-over-weekshift +0.06 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 2%
Neutral 98%
2% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets2%
Neutral98%
R-leaning outlets0%
2% of outlets classified by editorial lean
K
Could a Democratic Socialist win the race for Wisconsin governor?
I
Hong candidacy tempts Wisconsin’s progressive voters
N
Socialist Francesca Hong’s Chances of Beating GOP in Wisconsin: Polls
K
In Wisconsin, key primary approaching this August in open governor's race
W
Wisconsin governor candidates make Northeast Wisconsin stops as primary approaches
M
Hong Leads Latest Wisconsin Dem Gov’s Race Poll
W
A breakdown of who’s running for Wisconsin Governor ahead of August primary
M
Milfred and Hands interview Wisconsin candidates for governor
J
DSA candidate for Wisconsin governor appears with streamer who called Jews ‘demonic’
U
Wisconsin Families Are Still Paying for Tom Tiffany’s Big Beautiful Vote
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 9deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements79 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks