Races · Governor · 2026 · Arizona
Governor · open seat · provisional matchup
Katie Hobbs vs Republican
Likely matchup — the Republican nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.
Info · primary pending
The Republican nominee hasn't been chosen yet
3 Republican candidates remain. See the republican primary →
Primary July 21, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 60% D · market gap 17pp
Polling average rates this race Likely D (D+7.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+2.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+8.9 (10th pctile) to D+13.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 60% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 19.7% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Polling momentum is moving toward R at 1.7pp/wk over the 90d window — a real shift, not noise.
Uncertainty score: 60/100 (high). Key drivers: wide forecast CI (22.0pp); only 2 polls in last 60 days. Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 60%, market says 77% — 17pp gap.
CITATIONS · likely-d · high-tipping · trending-r · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-medium
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
60
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (22.0pp).
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement24
4.8pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution24 / 100
Measured4.8pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion15
1.5pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution15 / 100
Measured1.5pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity75
2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution75 / 100
Measured2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +2.1
80% CI: R +8.9 → D +13.1 · win prob 60%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 34 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +0.9
80% CI R +8.7 → D +4.8
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +5.8
80% CI D +4.1 → D +7.5
CV MAE 1.31
consensusMarket-implied
D +6.7
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 77¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 35 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 77% · polls 42%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through May 7, 2026 · latest Noble Predictive Insights
Katie Hobbs
VoteHub41.0%
VoteHub
Polling average41.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg42.2%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average42.2%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 1.2 pt below our average
Andy Biggs
VoteHub37.0%
VoteHub
Polling average37.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through May 7, 2026): Katie Hobbs 41.0%, Andy Biggs 37.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 34 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 26 | Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive Insights | 996 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +3.04 tracked | +3.4d lean | 41 · 37 |
| May 14, 26 | Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive Insights | 996 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +3.04 tracked | +3.4d lean | 42 · 35 |
| May 6, 26 | Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive Insights | 996 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +3.04 tracked | +3.4d lean | 41 · 37 |
| May 6, 26 | Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive Insights | 996 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +3.04 tracked | +3.4d lean | 42 · 35 |
| Apr 28, 26 | TIPPFor · League of American Workers | 1,159 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +3.8d lean | 48 · 38 |
| Apr 23, 26 | TIPP Insights+2For · Internal R-aligned | 1,159 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +2.7decoupled | 48 · 38 |
| Mar 3, 26 | Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive Insights | 1,023 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +3.04 tracked | +3.4d lean | 42 · 37 |
| Mar 3, 26 | Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive Insights | 1,023 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +3.04 tracked | +3.4d lean | 44 · 35 |
| Feb 25, 26 | Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive | 1,023 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +3.04 tracked | +3.4d lean | 42 · 35 |
| Feb 25, 26 | Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive | 1,023 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +3.04 tracked | +3.4d lean | 44 · 35 |
Endorsements · 10 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet10
Endorsements tracked
Katie Hobbs10 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total10
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DKatie Hobbs10 endorsers
Most notable · Greg Stanton · AZ-04 (2023–present), AZ-09 (2019–2023)
Organizations8
Organizations · 8
- Alliance for Retired Americans · mericans
- EMILYs List
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers · Arizona State Council
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- Stonewall Democrats · emocrats
Elected officials2
Federal 2State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Greg Stanton · AZ-04 (2023–present), AZ-09 (2019–2023)
- Yassamin Ansari · AZ-03 (2025–present)
RRepublican0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Andy Biggs
Receipts
$1.9M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
—
Debts
—
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean D1
Lean D · 1 rater
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Tossup3
Tossup · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
Cook Political Report
TossupInside Elections
TossupRealClearPolitics
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
75 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles75
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.04
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.01 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.04
Week-over-weekshift +0.01 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 4%
Neutral 96%
4% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets4%
Neutral96%
R-leaning outlets0%
4% of outlets classified by editorial lean
P
Arizona's only fictional candidate halts gubernatorial bid
A
Stand For Health Freedom Endorses Biggs In Arizona Governor’s Race
A
Gov . Katie Hobbs Knew Voter Registration System Was Faulty But Launched It Anyway
A
Gov. Katie Hobbs Knew Voter Registration System Was Faulty But Launched It Anyway
A
These candidates for governor are trying to make Arizona red again
A
These candidates for governor are trying to make Arizona red again
N
Arizona Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
A
Andy Biggs opposes court expansion after backing it in Arizona
F
Arrive Alive : Arizona campaign aims to reduce serious crashes
A
Governor Hobbs Vetoes Border Enforcement Bills In Arizona
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified29 / 34deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements55 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks