Republican primary · July 21, 2026
Arizona Governor Republican primary
Field of 3 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
44
Medium uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (15.1pp).
Forecast CI width50
15.1pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution50 / 100
Measured15.1pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity38
5 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution38 / 100
Measured5 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 8 polls + fundamentals1Andy BiggsAndy Biggs ( Republican Party ) is a member of the U.S. House , representing Arizona's 5th Congressional District . He assumed office on Jan…
2David SchweikertDavid Schweikert ( Republican Party ) is a member of the U.S. House , representing Arizona's 1st Congressional District . He assumed office …
3Neely
4Miceli
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 31 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Biggs | Schweikert | Robson | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 26 | NextGenP | 1,683 · LV | 57 | 11 | — | +46 |
| Jun 16, 26 | NextGen P | 1,683 · LV | 57 | 11 | — | +46 |
| May 17, 26 | Stealth Analytics | 1,100 · LV | 55 | 9 | — | +46 |
| May 14, 26 | Stealth Analytics | 1,100 · LV | 55 | 9 | — | +46 |
| May 14, 26 | Noble Predictive Insights | 375 · RV | 48 | 18 | — | +30 |
| May 6, 26 | Noble Predictive Insights | 375 · RV | 48 | 18 | — | +30 |
| Apr 15, 26 | NextGen P | 1,255 · LV | 52 | 10 | — | +42 |
| Apr 15, 26 | NextGenP | 1,255 · RV | 52 | 10 | — | +42 |
| Mar 3, 26 | Noble Predictive Insights | 384 · RV | 40 | 19 | — | +21 |
| Feb 25, 26 | Noble Predictive Insights | 384 · RV | 40 | 19 | — | +21 |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 31 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yetAndy Biggs · 17Karrin Taylor Robson · 14
RAndy Biggs17 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials11
Federal 9State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 11
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Tom Emmer · House Majority Whip from MN-06 (2015–present)
- Jake Hoffman · state senator from the 15th district (2023–present)
- Burgess Owens · UT-04 (2021–present)
- Eli Crane · AZ-02 (2023–present)
- Lauren Boebert · CO-04 (2021–present)
- Paul Gosar · AZ-09 (2011–present)
- Debbie Lesko · former AZ-08 (2018–2025) and member of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors from the 4th district (2025–present)
- Matt Gaetz · former FL-01 (2017–2024)
- Mike Lee · Utah (2011–present)
- Rachel Keshel · state representative from the 17th district (2023–present)
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- Arizona Freedom Caucus
- Republican Liberty Caucus · of Arizona
- Republicans for National Renewal
- Turning Point Action
Celebrity2
Celebrity · 2
- Charlie Kirk · CEO of Turning Point USA (deceased)
- Erika Kirk · CEO of Turning Point USA
RKarrin Taylor Robson14 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials10
Federal 2State 7Local 0
Elected officials · 10
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Janae Shamp · majority leader of the Arizona Senate (2025–present) from the 29th district (2023–present)
- Newt Gingrich · former speaker of the United States House of Representatives (1995–1999) from GA-06 (1979–1999)
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders · governor of Arkansas (2023–present) and former White House Press Secretary (2017–2019)
- Tim Dunn · state senator from the 25th district (2025–present)
- David Livingston · state representative from the 28th district (2023–present)
- Justin Wilmeth · state representative from the 2nd district (2023–present) and 15th district (2021–2023)
- Selina Bliss · state representative from the 1st district (2023–present)
- Teresa Martinez · state representative from the 16th district (2021–present)
- Walter Blackman · state representative from the 7th district (2025–present)
Other3
Other · 3
- Michael Carbone · majority leader of the Arizona House of Representatives (2025–present) from the 25th district (2023–present)
- Maggie's List
- Pete Ricketts · Nebraska (2023–present)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Rob Schneider · actor
RDavid Schweikert0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing —No FEC committee filings yet for the Republican primary candidates. Most primary candidates file quarterly; if the primary is recent the data may take a few weeks to appear.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
75 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles75
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.04
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.01 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.04
Week-over-weekshift +0.01 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 4%
Neutral 96%
4% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets4%
Neutral96%
R-leaning outlets0%
4% of outlets classified by editorial lean
P
Arizona's only fictional candidate halts gubernatorial bid
A
Stand For Health Freedom Endorses Biggs In Arizona Governor’s Race
A
Gov . Katie Hobbs Knew Voter Registration System Was Faulty But Launched It Anyway
A
Gov. Katie Hobbs Knew Voter Registration System Was Faulty But Launched It Anyway
A
These candidates for governor are trying to make Arizona red again
A
These candidates for governor are trying to make Arizona red again
N
Arizona Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
A
Andy Biggs opposes court expansion after backing it in Arizona
F
Arrive Alive : Arizona campaign aims to reduce serious crashes
A
Governor Hobbs Vetoes Border Enforcement Bills In Arizona
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 31deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements55 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks