Races · Governor · 2026 · California
Governor · open seat
Xavier Becerra vs Steve Hilton
Where this race stands
VerifiedXavier Becerra (D) and Steve Hilton (R) face off for California governor on November 3, 2026. The race is rated lean-D based on polling. The most recent survey, by Kreate Strategies (June 17, n=900 LV), shows Becerra leading Hilton 58%–33% [1]. An earlier CEPP poll (May 26, n=735 LV) found the same Becerra lead of 58%–35% [2]. Prediction markets reflect a wide Becerra advantage: PredictIt prices him at 93% [4], Polymarket at 91.7% [5], and Kalshi prices the Democratic Party at 91.3% [6].
CITATIONS · lean-d · high-tipping · trending-d · uncertainty-medium
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
47
Medium uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (22.0pp).
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement15
3.1pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution15 / 100
Measured3.1pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion18
1.8pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution18 / 100
Measured1.8pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity25
6 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution25 / 100
Measured6 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +25.0
80% CI: D +14.0 → D +36.0 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 6 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +25.3
80% CI R +20.9 → D +35.4
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +22.2
80% CI D +20.8 → D +23.6
CV MAE 1.11
consensusMarket-implied
D +13.7
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 92¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 38 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 92% · polls 54%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Jun 17, 2026 · latest Kreate Strategies
Xavier Becerra
VoteHub58.0%
VoteHub
Polling average58.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg53.7%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average53.7%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 4.3 pt above our average
Steve Hilton
VoteHub33.0%
VoteHub
Polling average33.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg31.7%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average31.7%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 1.3 pt above our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Jun 17, 2026): Xavier Becerra 58.0%, Steve Hilton 33.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 6 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 16 | Kreate Strategies | 900 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 58 · 33 |
| Jun 16 | Kreate Strategies | 900 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 58 · 33 |
| Jun 10 | Berkeley IGS+1For · Los Angeles Times | 8,578 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 52 · 31 |
| May 25 | CEPPFor · Politico | 735 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 58 · 35 |
| May 25 | CEPPFor · Politico | 735 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 55 · 34 |
| May 23 | Berkeley IGS | 8,578 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 52 · 31 |
Endorsements · 138 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet65
13
Endorsements tracked
Tom Steyer65 · 83%
Steve Hilton13 · 17%
Total78
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DTom Steyer65 endorsers
Most notable · Isaac Bryan · former majority leader of the California Assembly (2023) from AD-55 (2021–present)
Elected officials27
Federal 6State 18Local 2
Elected officials · 27
- Isaac Bryan · former majority leader of the California Assembly (2023) from AD-55 (2021–present)
- Alex Lee · AD-24 (2020–present)
- Ash Kalra · AD-25 (2016–present)
- Caroline Menjivar · SD-20 (2022–present)
- Corey Jackson · AD-60 (2022–present)
- Gregg Hart · AD-37 (2022–present)
- Henry Stern · SD-27 (2016–present)
- Jared Huffman · CA-2 (2013–present)
- LaShae Sharp-Collins · AD-79 (2024–present)
- Lateefah Simon · CA-12 (2025–present)
- Liz Ortega · AD-20 (2022–present)
- Lola Smallwood-Cuevas · SD-28 (2022–present)
- Nick Schultz · AD-44 (2024–present)
- Rick Zbur · AD-51 (2022–present)
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
- Sharon Quirk-Silva · AD-67 (2022–present) and former AD-65 (2012–2014, 2016–2022)
- Steve Bennett · AD-38 (2020–present)
- Tasha Boerner · AD-77 (2018–present)
- Tina McKinnor · AD-61 (2022–present)
- John Podesta · former White House chief of staff (1998–2001) and senior advisor to the president for international climate policy (2024–2025)
- Toni Atkins · former gubernatorial candidate and president pro tempore of the California State Senate (2018–2024) from SD-39 (2016–2024)
- Adena Ishii · mayor of Berkeley (2024–present)
- Betty Yee · former state controller of California (2015–2023) and former gubernatorial candidate
- Chris Ward · former speaker pro tempore of the California State Assembly (2022–2023) from AD-78 (2020–present)
- Robert Reich · former U.S. secretary of labor (1993–1997)
- Sheldon Whitehouse · Rhode Island (2007–present)
- Willie Brown · former mayor of San Francisco (1996–2004)
Organizations25
Organizations · 25
- AFSCME · Local 3299
- Abundant Housing LA
- California Environmental Voters
- California Federation of Labor Unions
- California Federation of Teachers
- California Nurses Association
- California School Employees Association
- California Teachers Association
- Center for Biological Diversity
- Council on American–Islamic Relations
- Courage California
- Democratic Socialists of America · of America
- Food & Water Action
- IFPTE · Local 21
- International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees
- Jane Fonda Climate PAC
- Natural Resources Defense Council
- Our Revolution
- Progressive Victory
- Service Employees International Union · California
- Sierra Club
- Third Act · California
- UNITE HERE
- United Domestic Workers
- YIMBY Action
Celebrity9
Celebrity · 9
- Bill McKibben · environmentalist
- Carlos Eduardo Espina · content creator and activist
- Cenk Uygur · The Young Turks host, co-founder
- Jane Fonda · actress and climate activist
- Jon Lovett · co-founder of Crooked Media and co-host of Pod Save America
- Michael Brune · former executive director of the Sierra Club
- Rebecca Solnit · writer and activist
- Susie Tompkins Buell · entrepeneur
- Tommy Vietor · co-founder of Crooked Media and co-host of Pod Save America
Newspapers3
Newspapers · 3
- San Francisco Bay Guardian
- Santa Barbara Independent
- Sun-Reporter
Other1
Other · 1
- Ali Zaidi · former White House national climate advisor (2022–2025)
DXavier Becerra60 endorsers
Most notable · Kamala Harris · 49th vice president of the United States (2021–2025)
Elected officials38
Federal 9State 24Local 5
Elected officials · 38
- Kamala Harris · 49th vice president of the United States (2021–2025)
- Jim Clyburn · former House majority whip (2007–2011, 2019–2023) from SC-06 (1993–present)
- Robert A. Rivas · speaker of the state assembly (2023–present) from AD-29 (2018–present)
- Gavin Newsom · governor of California (2019–present)
- Blanca Pacheco · AD-64 (2022–present)
- Blanca Rubio · AD-48 (2016–present)
- Bob Archuleta · SD-30 (2018–present)
- Catherine Stefani · AD-19 (2024–present)
- Celeste Rodriguez · AD-43 (2024–present)
- Darshana Patel · AD-76 (2024–present)
- David Alvarez · AD-80 (2020–present)
- Eloise Reyes · SD-29 (2024–present)
- Gil Cisneros · CA-31 (2025–present) and former CA-39 (2019–2021)
- Jasmine Crockett · TX-30 (2023–present)
- Jerry McNerney · SD-05 (2024–present) and former CA-09 (2007–2023)
- Joaquin Arambula · AD-31 (2016–present)
- John Harabedian · AD-41 (2024–present)
- Juan Carrillo · AD-39 (2022–present)
- Lori Wilson · AD-11 (2022–present)
- Mark Takano · CA-39 (2013–present)
- Melissa Hurtado · SD-16 (2018–present)
- Michelle Rodriguez · AD-53 (2024–present)
- Mike Fong · AD-49 (2022–present)
- Pilar Schiavo · AD-40 (2022–present)
- Raul Ruiz · CA-25 (2013–present)
- Rhodesia Ransom · AD-13 (2024–present)
- Rick Zbur · AD-51 (2022–present)
- Sabrina Cervantes · SD-31 (2024–present)
- Salud Carbajal · CA-24 (2017–present)
- Sharon Quirk-Silva · AD-67 (2022–present) and former AD-65 (2012–2014, 2016–2022)
- Stephanie Nguyen · AD-10 (2020–present)
- Ted Lieu · CA-36 (2015–present)
- Adrin Nazarian · Los Angeles city councilmember from the 2nd district (2023–present)
- Luis Alejo · Monterey County supervisor from the 1st district (2017–present)
- Mary Salas · former mayor of Chula Vista (2014–2022)
- Rex Richardson · mayor of Long Beach (2022–present)
- Sukhee Kang · former mayor of Irvine (2008–2012)
- Tony Cárdenas · former CA-29 (2013–2025)
Organizations16
Organizations · 16
- Alice B. Toklas LGBTQ Democratic Club
- California Faculty Association
- California Medical Association
- California State Council of Laborers
- Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights of Los Angeles
- Equality California
- ILWU Southern California District Council
- Laborers' International Union of North America
- Los Angeles County Young Democrats
- Planned Parenthood · Affiliates of California
- San Francisco Examiner
- Service Employees International Union · California
- Stonewall Young Democrats
- The Independent
- Union of American Physicians and Dentists
- Young Democrats · g Democrats
Other5
Other · 5
- Adam Schiff · California (2024–present)
- California Chamber of Commerce
- California YIMBY
- Katie Porter · former CA-47 (2019–2025) and former gubernatorial candidate
- Tom Steyer · businessman, environmental activist, and former gubernatorial candidate
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Dolores Huerta · labor leader
RSteve Hilton13 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials6
Federal 4State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 6
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- JD Vance · vice president of the United States (2025–present)
- Gloria Romero · former majority leader of the California Senate (2005–2008) from SD-24 (2001–2010) (candidate's running mate)
- Kevin Kiley · CA-03 (2023–present) (independent)
- Tom McClintock · CA-05 (2009–present)
- Tony Strickland · SD-36 (2008–2012, 2025–present)
Celebrity5
Celebrity · 5
- Charlie Kirk · founder of Turning Point USA (deceased)
- Lanhee Chen · member of the Amtrak Board of Directors (2024–present) (candidate's policy advisor)
- Phil Mickelson · professional golfer
- Spencer Pratt · reality TV star and 2026 Los Angeles mayoral candidate
- Vivek Ramaswamy · entrepreneur and 2026 Ohio gubernatorial nominee
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- California College Republicans
Other1
Other · 1
- Jon Voight · special ambassador to Hollywood (2025–present)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Steve Hilton
Receipts
$12.9M
Disburse
$14.8M
Cash on hand
—
Debts
—
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Xavier Becerra
Receipts
$11.3M
Disburse
$18.3M
Cash on hand
—
Debts
—
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DRealClearPolitics
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
121 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles121
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.20
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.11 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.20
Week-over-weekshift −0.11 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 21%
Neutral 79%
R 1%
21% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets21%
Neutral79%
R-leaning outlets1%
21% of outlets classified by editorial lean
C
Steve Hilton: Can this British-born Republican be CA’s next governor?
C
Steve Hilton has reinvented himself multiple times. Can he do it again as a California Republican?
A
California governor's race: Hear from top candidates in 2026 election, Republicans and Democrats, hoping to replace Gavin Newsom
M
BREAKING: AP Projects Who Moves Forward In California Governor Race Carter Hart (HPakbiiB8v)
S
Gov. Gavin Newsom announces plan to make seizing California’s ballots a felony
W
Goal of higher voter turnout remains elusive in California as changes have extended ballot counting
M
Xavier Becerra's rivals in the California governor's race have seized on these 3 incidents
A
California Gubernatorial Race Series: Interview with Tony Thurmond
K
2026 Election Results for California Governor
C
Who are the state controller candidates in 2026 California election?
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified6 / 6deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements798 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks