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Races · Governor · 2026 · California · general · primary
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PhasesShowing the primary. Other views:general election·Democratic primary
Primary · June 2, 2026

California Governor primary

Field of 3 candidates running on a single ballot (jungle / nonpartisan format). Top finishers advance to the general election on November 3, 2026.

← Arizona GovernorCalifornia Governor →
Primary passed· 110 polls
Xavier Becerra 63% to advance to Novemberupdated 11h ago · primary-struct-v1
Xavier Becerra · 63%Tom Steyer · 56%Steve Hilton · 48%Chad Bianco · 16%
Where this race stands
Verified

Showing the primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.

How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
35
Medium uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (21.2pp).
Forecast CI width71
21.2pp 80% interval
Polling sparsity0
28 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8

Forecast · primary

primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 8 polls + fundamentals
1Xavier BecerraXavier Becerra ( Democratic Party ) is running for election for Governor of California . He is on the ballot in the general election on Nove…21.8% 11–3263% advance
2Tom SteyerTom Steyer ( Democratic Party ) ran for election for Governor of California . He lost in the primary on June 2, 2026 .20.2% 10–3156% advance
↑ top 2 advance to November · ↓ eliminated
3Steve HiltonSteve Hilton ( Republican Party ) is running for election for Governor of California . He is on the ballot in the general election on Novemb…18.8% 8–2948% advance
4Chad Bianco11.3% 1–2216% advance
5Katie Porter7.1% 0–187% advance
6Matt Mahan5.9% 0–175% advance
7Antonio Villaraigosa4.6% 0–154% advance
8Tony Thurmond2.3% 0–132% advance
Same-party general possibleThe two front-runners are both Democrats. If that holds, November is a D-vs-D general — which the general view colors by candidate, not party.

Polling average

152025303540455055STEYER 55.0BECERRA 53.7HILTON 31.7MAY '26JUN '26JUN '26
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Prediction markets

odds to win the seat in November · updated 11h ago

No platform lists a primary-winner contract for this race, so these are each candidate's market odds of winning the general election — winning the nomination is a prerequisite, which is why traders separate the field this way.

Xavier Becerrapolymarket93¢
Steve Hiltonpolymarket7¢
Tom Steyerpolymarket0¢

All polls · 110 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popSteyerBecerraHiltonLead
May 31, 26SurveyUSA1,124 · LV201720+0
May 31, 26California Elections & Policy Poll735 · LV182923+6
May 30, 26SurveyUSA1,124 · LV201720+0
May 29, 26Emerson College1,000 · LV222821+6
May 28, 26McLaughlin & Associates800 · LV251925+0
May 28, 26Berkeley IGS5,472 · LV192521+4
May 27, 26Public Policy Polling686 · LV211820+1
May 27, 26Emerson College1,000 · LV232823+5
May 27, 26McLaughlin & Associates800 · LV251925+0
May 27, 26PPIC986 · LV152320+3
May 27, 26Kreate Strategies900 · LV202726+1
May 26, 26Kreate Strategies900 · LV202726+1
May 26, 26David Binder Research— · unknown222627+1
May 25, 26CEPP735 · LV182923+6
May 25, 26CEPP735 · LV2637—+11
May 25, 26CEPP735 · LV—42——
May 25, 26CEPP735 · LV31———
May 25, 26CEPP735 · LV——34—
May 23, 26Berkeley IGS5,472 · LV192521+4
May 20, 26Global Strategy Group800 · LV191922+3
May 20, 26Echelon Insights800 · LV181525+7
May 17, 26PPIC986 · LV152320+3
May 15, 26Evitarus1,200 · LV152122+1
May 12, 26Emerson College1,000 · LV171917+2
May 10, 26David Binder Research— · unknown152223+1
May 9, 26Emerson College1,000 · LV192018+1
May 9, 26Kreate Strategies900 · RV142022+2
May 8, 26Kreate Strategies900 · LV142022+2
May 5, 26Mellman Group600 · LV122020+0
May 2, 26Impact Research900 · LV142323+0
May 1, 26Evitarus1,200 · LV121818+0
Apr 30, 26SurveyUSA991 · LV181020+2
Apr 30, 26SurveyUSA991 · LV181020+2
Apr 29, 26Gudelunas Strategies800 · LV152423+1
Apr 27, 26EMC Research1,000 · LV172120+1
Apr 26, 26Gudelunas Strategies800 · LV152423+1
Apr 26, 26CBS News/YouGov1,479 · LV151316+1
Apr 26, 26CBS/YouGov1,421 · LV151316+1
Apr 25, 26EMC Research1,000 · LV172120+1
Apr 19, 26Independent Voter Project3,404 · LV142320+3
Apr 19, 26Gudelunas Strategies800 · LV151520+5
Apr 19, 26Independent Voter News2,038 · LV142320+3
Apr 18, 26Kreate Strategies900 · LV161018+2
Apr 17, 26Gudelunas Strategies800 · LV151520+5
Apr 17, 26Kreate Strategies900 · LV161018+2
Apr 16, 26Evitarus1,200 · LV131316+3
Apr 15, 26Emerson College1,000 · LV141017+3
Apr 15, 26PPIC1,008 · LV14517+3
Apr 14, 26Emerson College1,000 · LV141017+3
Apr 11, 26Impact Research900 · LV16725+9
Apr 11, 26SurveyUSA788 · LV21418+3
Apr 9, 26SurveyUSA788 · LV21418+3
Apr 6, 26Kreate Strategies700 · LV13219+6
Apr 5, 26David Binder Research800 · LV12422+10
Apr 4, 26Evitarus1,200 · LV11414+3
Apr 2, 26PPIC1,008 · LV14517+3
Mar 28, 26Kreate Strategies700 · LV13219+6
Mar 17, 26Berkeley IGS3,889 · LV10517+7
Mar 16, 26Echelon Insights600 · LV13320+7
Mar 16, 26Evitarus2,000 · LV10316+6
Mar 13, 26Berkeley IGS3,889 · LV10517+7
Mar 10, 26Citrin Center/Politico1,004 · LV13519+6
Mar 10, 26Emerson College1,000 · LV11313+2
Mar 8, 26Emerson College1,000 · LV11313+2
Mar 2, 26Politico/UC Berkeley/TrueDot1,004 · LV13519+6
Mar 1, 26Global Strategy Group1,340 · LV16520+4
Feb 25, 26PPIC1,049 · LV10514+4
Feb 22, 26Independent Voter News868 · LV8315+7
Feb 19, 26Independent Voter Project868 · LV8315+7
Feb 17, 26Emerson College1,000 · LV9417+8
Feb 13, 26Emerson College1,000 · LV9417+8
Feb 10, 26PPIC1,049 · LV10514+4
Feb 4, 26Tavern Research1,097 · LV9612+3
Feb 3, 26EMC Research1,400 · unknown9617+8
Feb 2, 26Global Strategy Group— · unknown10418+8
Jan 31, 26J Wallin Opinion Research1,000 · RV12614+2
Jan 28, 26RBI Strategies & Research— · unknown8416+8
Jan 27, 26Tulchin Research1,000 · LV10515+5
Jan 20, 26Public Policy Polling1,001 · unknown8617+9
Jan 19, 26David Binder Research800 · LV8514+6
Dec 18, 25FM3 Research632 · LV6318+12
Dec 15, 25CivicLens Research400 · LV7118+11
Dec 7, 25PPIC1,086 · LV—1414+0
Dec 6, 25FM3 Research632 · LV6318+12
Dec 3, 25Emerson College1,000 · RV4412+8
Dec 1, 25Emerson College1,000 · LV4412+8
Nov 19, 25Lake Research Partners600 · LV4617+11
Nov 18, 25PPIC1,086 · LV—1414+0
Nov 6, 25Berkeley IGS8,141 · RV188+0
Oct 29, 25Tavern Research1,001 · LV—912+3
Oct 26, 25Berkeley IGS8,141 · RV—88+0
Oct 25, 25EMC Research1,000 · LV3920+11
Oct 23, 25Emerson College900 · LV——16—
Oct 20, 25Emerson College900 · LV—516+11
Oct 20, 25Bold Decision509 · LV7813+5
Sep 18, 25Emerson College1,000 · RV—510+5
Sep 15, 25Emerson College1,000 · RV—510+5
Sep 15, 25Emerson College1,000 · RV—310+7
Aug 25, 25Berkeley IGS4,950 · RV—96+3
Aug 20, 25Citrin Center/Politico1,445 · RV—910+1
Aug 16, 25Berkeley IGS4,950 · RV—96+3
Aug 11, 25True Dot/Politico875 · RV—910+1
Aug 7, 25Emerson College1,000 · RV—312+9
Aug 4, 25Emerson College1,000 · RV—312+9
Apr 13, 25Emerson College911 · LV—2——
Feb 10, 25Emerson College469 · RV————
Feb 6, 25Capitol Weekly692 · RV—4——
Nov 25, 24Breakthrough Campaigns1,228 · LV—2——
Sep 24, 24USC/CSU Long Beach/Cal Poly Pomona1,685 · LV—34+1
Aug 11, 24Tulchin Research800 · LV——10—
· 110 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · primary · 138 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
65
60
13
Tom Steyer · 65Xavier Becerra · 60Steve Hilton · 13
DTom Steyer65 endorsers
Most notable · Isaac Bryan · former majority leader of the California Assembly (2023) from AD-55 (2021–present)
Elected officials27
Federal 6State 18Local 2
Organizations25
Celebrity9
Newspapers3
Other1
DXavier Becerra60 endorsers
Most notable · Kamala Harris · 49th vice president of the United States (2021–2025)
Elected officials38
Federal 9State 24Local 5
Organizations16
Other5
Celebrity1
RSteve Hilton13 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials6
Federal 4State 2Local 0
Celebrity5
Organizations1
Other1

Money in this primary

FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing —
Steve HiltonOWN COMMITTEE
Raised
$12.88M
Cash on hand
—
Top industries
No industry data.
Xavier BecerraOWN COMMITTEE
Raised
$11.28M
Cash on hand
—
Top industries
No industry data.

In the news

40 shown · last 30d · Google News
News volume · 30d
121 articles · building history
Net favorability
+0.20
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.11 wk
Coverage tilt
D 21%
Neutral 79%
R 1%
21% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
C
calmatters.org · 2d ago
Steve Hilton: Can this British-born Republican be CA’s next governor?
Neutral
C
calmatters.org · 2d ago
Steve Hilton has reinvented himself multiple times. Can he do it again as a California Republican?
Neutral
A
abc7news.com · 4d ago
California governor's race: Hear from top candidates in 2026 election, Republicans and Democrats, hoping to replace Gavin Newsom
Neutral
M
mshale.com · 4d ago
BREAKING: AP Projects Who Moves Forward In California Governor Race Carter Hart (HPakbiiB8v)
Neutral
S
sacbee.com · 5d ago
Gov. Gavin Newsom announces plan to make seizing California’s ballots a felony
Neutral
W
wowktv.com · 6d ago
Goal of higher voter turnout remains elusive in California as changes have extended ballot counting
Neutral
M
msn.com · 6d ago
Xavier Becerra's rivals in the California governor's race have seized on these 3 incidents
D-favorable
A
americancommunitymedia.org · 6d ago
California Gubernatorial Race Series: Interview with Tony Thurmond
Neutral
K
kqed.org · 6d ago
2026 Election Results for California Governor
Neutral
C
calmatters.org · 7d ago
Who are the state controller candidates in 2026 California election?
Neutral
Page 1 of 4
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 110deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements798 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks