Democratic primary · June 2, 2026
California Governor Democratic primary
Field of 2 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 32d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
81
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (18.3pp).
Forecast CI width61
18.3pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution61 / 100
Measured18.3pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 8 polls + fundamentals1Xavier BecerraXavier Becerra ( Democratic Party ) is running for election for Governor of California . He is on the ballot in the general election on Nove…
2Tom SteyerTom Steyer ( Democratic Party ) ran for election for Governor of California . He lost in the primary on June 2, 2026 .
3Katie Porter
4Matt Mahan
5Antonio Villaraigosa
6Tony Thurmond
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
odds to win the seat in November · updated 11h agoNo platform lists a Democratic primary-winner contract for this race, so these are each candidate's market odds of winning the general election — winning the nomination is a prerequisite, which is why traders separate the field this way.
All polls · 0 results
Democratic primary pollsNo polls have been published for this primary yet. When pollsters start covering the race, individual polls will be listed here with sample size, lean, and trust signals.
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 125 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetTom Steyer · 65Xavier Becerra · 60
DTom Steyer65 endorsers
Most notable · Isaac Bryan · former majority leader of the California Assembly (2023) from AD-55 (2021–present)
Elected officials27
Federal 6State 18Local 2
Elected officials · 27
- Isaac Bryan · former majority leader of the California Assembly (2023) from AD-55 (2021–present)
- Alex Lee · AD-24 (2020–present)
- Ash Kalra · AD-25 (2016–present)
- Caroline Menjivar · SD-20 (2022–present)
- Corey Jackson · AD-60 (2022–present)
- Gregg Hart · AD-37 (2022–present)
- Henry Stern · SD-27 (2016–present)
- Jared Huffman · CA-2 (2013–present)
- LaShae Sharp-Collins · AD-79 (2024–present)
- Lateefah Simon · CA-12 (2025–present)
- Liz Ortega · AD-20 (2022–present)
- Lola Smallwood-Cuevas · SD-28 (2022–present)
- Nick Schultz · AD-44 (2024–present)
- Rick Zbur · AD-51 (2022–present)
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
- Sharon Quirk-Silva · AD-67 (2022–present) and former AD-65 (2012–2014, 2016–2022)
- Steve Bennett · AD-38 (2020–present)
- Tasha Boerner · AD-77 (2018–present)
- Tina McKinnor · AD-61 (2022–present)
- John Podesta · former White House chief of staff (1998–2001) and senior advisor to the president for international climate policy (2024–2025)
- Toni Atkins · former gubernatorial candidate and president pro tempore of the California State Senate (2018–2024) from SD-39 (2016–2024)
- Adena Ishii · mayor of Berkeley (2024–present)
- Betty Yee · former state controller of California (2015–2023) and former gubernatorial candidate
- Chris Ward · former speaker pro tempore of the California State Assembly (2022–2023) from AD-78 (2020–present)
- Robert Reich · former U.S. secretary of labor (1993–1997)
- Sheldon Whitehouse · Rhode Island (2007–present)
- Willie Brown · former mayor of San Francisco (1996–2004)
Organizations25
Organizations · 25
- AFSCME · Local 3299
- Abundant Housing LA
- California Environmental Voters
- California Federation of Labor Unions
- California Federation of Teachers
- California Nurses Association
- California School Employees Association
- California Teachers Association
- Center for Biological Diversity
- Council on American–Islamic Relations
- Courage California
- Democratic Socialists of America · of America
- Food & Water Action
- IFPTE · Local 21
- International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees
- Jane Fonda Climate PAC
- Natural Resources Defense Council
- Our Revolution
- Progressive Victory
- Service Employees International Union · California
- Sierra Club
- Third Act · California
- UNITE HERE
- United Domestic Workers
- YIMBY Action
Celebrity9
Celebrity · 9
- Bill McKibben · environmentalist
- Carlos Eduardo Espina · content creator and activist
- Cenk Uygur · The Young Turks host, co-founder
- Jane Fonda · actress and climate activist
- Jon Lovett · co-founder of Crooked Media and co-host of Pod Save America
- Michael Brune · former executive director of the Sierra Club
- Rebecca Solnit · writer and activist
- Susie Tompkins Buell · entrepeneur
- Tommy Vietor · co-founder of Crooked Media and co-host of Pod Save America
Newspapers3
Newspapers · 3
- San Francisco Bay Guardian
- Santa Barbara Independent
- Sun-Reporter
Other1
Other · 1
- Ali Zaidi · former White House national climate advisor (2022–2025)
DXavier Becerra60 endorsers
Most notable · Kamala Harris · 49th vice president of the United States (2021–2025)
Elected officials38
Federal 9State 24Local 5
Elected officials · 38
- Kamala Harris · 49th vice president of the United States (2021–2025)
- Jim Clyburn · former House majority whip (2007–2011, 2019–2023) from SC-06 (1993–present)
- Robert A. Rivas · speaker of the state assembly (2023–present) from AD-29 (2018–present)
- Gavin Newsom · governor of California (2019–present)
- Blanca Pacheco · AD-64 (2022–present)
- Blanca Rubio · AD-48 (2016–present)
- Bob Archuleta · SD-30 (2018–present)
- Catherine Stefani · AD-19 (2024–present)
- Celeste Rodriguez · AD-43 (2024–present)
- Darshana Patel · AD-76 (2024–present)
- David Alvarez · AD-80 (2020–present)
- Eloise Reyes · SD-29 (2024–present)
- Gil Cisneros · CA-31 (2025–present) and former CA-39 (2019–2021)
- Jasmine Crockett · TX-30 (2023–present)
- Jerry McNerney · SD-05 (2024–present) and former CA-09 (2007–2023)
- Joaquin Arambula · AD-31 (2016–present)
- John Harabedian · AD-41 (2024–present)
- Juan Carrillo · AD-39 (2022–present)
- Lori Wilson · AD-11 (2022–present)
- Mark Takano · CA-39 (2013–present)
- Melissa Hurtado · SD-16 (2018–present)
- Michelle Rodriguez · AD-53 (2024–present)
- Mike Fong · AD-49 (2022–present)
- Pilar Schiavo · AD-40 (2022–present)
- Raul Ruiz · CA-25 (2013–present)
- Rhodesia Ransom · AD-13 (2024–present)
- Rick Zbur · AD-51 (2022–present)
- Sabrina Cervantes · SD-31 (2024–present)
- Salud Carbajal · CA-24 (2017–present)
- Sharon Quirk-Silva · AD-67 (2022–present) and former AD-65 (2012–2014, 2016–2022)
- Stephanie Nguyen · AD-10 (2020–present)
- Ted Lieu · CA-36 (2015–present)
- Adrin Nazarian · Los Angeles city councilmember from the 2nd district (2023–present)
- Luis Alejo · Monterey County supervisor from the 1st district (2017–present)
- Mary Salas · former mayor of Chula Vista (2014–2022)
- Rex Richardson · mayor of Long Beach (2022–present)
- Sukhee Kang · former mayor of Irvine (2008–2012)
- Tony Cárdenas · former CA-29 (2013–2025)
Organizations16
Organizations · 16
- Alice B. Toklas LGBTQ Democratic Club
- California Faculty Association
- California Medical Association
- California State Council of Laborers
- Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights of Los Angeles
- Equality California
- ILWU Southern California District Council
- Laborers' International Union of North America
- Los Angeles County Young Democrats
- Planned Parenthood · Affiliates of California
- San Francisco Examiner
- Service Employees International Union · California
- Stonewall Young Democrats
- The Independent
- Union of American Physicians and Dentists
- Young Democrats · g Democrats
Other5
Other · 5
- Adam Schiff · California (2024–present)
- California Chamber of Commerce
- California YIMBY
- Katie Porter · former CA-47 (2019–2025) and former gubernatorial candidate
- Tom Steyer · businessman, environmental activist, and former gubernatorial candidate
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Dolores Huerta · labor leader
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing —No FEC committee filings yet for the Democratic primary candidates. Most primary candidates file quarterly; if the primary is recent the data may take a few weeks to appear.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
121 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles121
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.20
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.11 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.20
Week-over-weekshift −0.11 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 21%
Neutral 79%
R 1%
21% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets21%
Neutral79%
R-leaning outlets1%
21% of outlets classified by editorial lean
C
Steve Hilton: Can this British-born Republican be CA’s next governor?
C
Steve Hilton has reinvented himself multiple times. Can he do it again as a California Republican?
A
California governor's race: Hear from top candidates in 2026 election, Republicans and Democrats, hoping to replace Gavin Newsom
M
BREAKING: AP Projects Who Moves Forward In California Governor Race Carter Hart (HPakbiiB8v)
S
Gov. Gavin Newsom announces plan to make seizing California’s ballots a felony
W
Goal of higher voter turnout remains elusive in California as changes have extended ballot counting
M
Xavier Becerra's rivals in the California governor's race have seized on these 3 incidents
A
California Gubernatorial Race Series: Interview with Tony Thurmond
K
2026 Election Results for California Governor
C
Who are the state controller candidates in 2026 California election?
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements798 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks