Races · Senate · 2026 · TX
Senate · class II · open seat
Texas Senate
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Tilt D · model 88% R
tilt-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
R +5.1
80% CI: R +9.5 → R +0.7 · win prob 12%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 181 |
| Residual σ | 3.44pt |
| Generated | 5/6/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +0.9
80% CI R +3.6 → D +1.0
CV MAE 7.21
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +0.3
80% CI R +1.4 → D +0.7
CV MAE 0.79
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
R +5.1
80% CI R +9.5 → R +0.7
CV MAE 3.44
Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater
3 raters| Rater | Rating | Updated | Poll D-marg. | Rater marg. | Δ poll−rater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Likely R | Oct 14 | +1.0 | -9.0 | +10.0 |
| Inside Elections | Likely R | Jan 12 | +1.0 | -9.0 | +10.0 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | Jan 29 | +1.0 | -9.0 | +10.0 |
Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.
last poll 3 weeks ago (4/20/2026) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/3/2026 Tilt D D+1.0 via polls
In the news
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Alabama lawmakers pass plan for new US House primary if courts allow different districtstimesfreepress.com · 1d ago -
AEP expects to double total power needed by 2030 , largely due to data centers in Ohio and Texasideastream.org · 1d ago -
Virginia Supreme Court strikes down redistricting referendum rulingfoxnews.com · 1d ago -
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CNBC Daily Open : Trump Hormuz gambit lands with a whimpercnbc.com · 6d ago - $33B transmission build - out leaves Texas ranchers fuming - Governor Wind Energy Coalitiongovernorswindenergycoalition.org · 6d ago
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- Fannin County Witness to History : Genie Broadfoot Chancentxe-news.com · 6d ago
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Trump War Inspires the Return of an Old Scourge : War Profiteerscounterpunch.org · 6d ago
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