Races · Senate · 2026 · Texas

Senate · class II · open seat

James Talarico vs Ken Paxton

← Tennessee Senate Virginia Senate →

Likely RR +6.3 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 33 polls · 7 marketsLast poll 7d agoMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
22% Talarico (D)
78% Paxton (R)
Win probability
James Talarico22% (D)
Ken Paxton78% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +6.3
80% CIR+16.6 → D+4.0
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin R +6.3 · 80% CI R+16.6 → D+4.0 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

R +0.0 pp/wk

stable · 30d

Tipping-point P

9.9%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 41¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Where this race stands

Verified

James Talarico (D) and Ken Paxton (R) face off for Texas's U.S. Senate seat on November 3, 2026. The race rates as tilt-D with a polling-derived margin of 0.78 points. The most recent poll, from A2 Insights (June 28, n=618 LV), shows Talarico leading 48–46 [1]. Prediction markets lean toward Paxton: PredictIt prices the Republican at 65% [5], Kalshi at 59% [6], and Polymarket at 57% [7].

CITATIONS · tilt-d · high-tipping · stable · uncertainty-medium

How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain

Combined

Medium uncertainty

Main driver: wide forecast CI (20.5pp).

Forecast CI width68

20.5pp 80% interval

Inter-model disagreement46

9.2pp across models

Pollster dispersion24

2.4pp cross-pollster spread

Polling sparsity0

16 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +6.3

80% CI: R +16.6 → D +4.0 · win prob 22%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · high

Polls used	33
Days to election	118
Residual σ	8.01pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +8.6

80% CI R +11.3 → R +8.1

CV MAE 8.51

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

D +0.6

80% CI R +0.5 → D +1.7

CV MAE 0.85

consensusMarket-implied

R +1.9

no interval

market-implied

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
323640444852PAXTON 45.8TALARICO 45.7SEP '25FEB '26JUN '26
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 41¢4 platformsupdated 11h ago

DisagreementMarkets are 4 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 41% · polls 46%.

Cross-platform price · history

10¢20¢30¢40¢50¢398 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWJun 4Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?”	43¢	57¢	-1¢	—	+2
Predictit “Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Texas?”	39¢	65¢	-1¢	—	-2
Manifold “Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?”	44¢	56¢	+2¢	—	+2
Kalshi “Texas Senate winner?”	40¢	59¢	+0¢	$26K	-1

Predictit sits 2¢ below consensus.

External cross-checkExternal

Not part of our model or polling average

VoteHubaggregator ↗

9 polls · through Jun 28, 2026 · latest A2 Insights

James Talarico

VoteHub45.8%

PoliAgg avg45.7%

Δ 0.1 pt above our average

Ken Paxton

VoteHub44.6%

PoliAgg avg45.8%

Δ 1.2 pt below our average

Ted Brown

VoteHub3.0%

no matching candidate in our average

VoteHub's independent average across 9 polls (through Jun 28, 2026): James Talarico 45.8%, Ken Paxton 44.6%.

Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.

All polls · 33 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Jun 29, 26	A2 Insights	618 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	48 · 46
Jun 29, 26	Siena College+1For · The New York Times	656 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.715 tracked	+1.2aligned	47 · 47
Jun 27, 26	A2 Insights	618 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	48 · 46
Jun 26, 26	New York Times/Siena CollegeFor · Siena College	656 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.16 tracked	+2.0aligned	47 · 47
Jun 26, 26	New York Times/Siena University+1For · Siena University	656 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+4.3d lean	47 · 47
Jun 22, 26	University of TexasFor · The Texas Politics Project	1,200 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	—	42 · 43
Jun 20, 26	SoCal StrategiesFor · Internal R-aligned	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+2.9d lean	47 · 49
Jun 11, 26	University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectFor · Texas Politics Project	1,200 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	+15.8d lean	42 · 43
Jun 8, 26	Texas Pulse Poll	807 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	47 · 44
Jun 4, 26	Quantus InsightsFor · Quantus Insights	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+4.5d lean	43 · 45
Jun 3, 26	Quantus Insights+1For · Internal R-aligned	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+4.5d lean	43 · 45
Jun 3, 26	Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena UniversityFor · ReconMR/ Siena University	807 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	46 · 46
May 28, 26	Texas Public Opinion Research+1	1,670 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+14.8d lean	47 · 44
May 27, 26	Texas Public Opinion Research+1	1,670 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+14.8d lean	47 · 44
May 22, 26	Public Policy Polling+1For · Internal D-aligned	643 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	45 · 38
May 17, 26	Texas Southern University	1,223 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	45 · 45
May 5, 26	Texas Southern University	1,223 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	45 · 45
Apr 28, 26	University of Texas	1,200 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	—	42 · 34
Apr 27, 26	Texas Public Opinion Research+2	1,865 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+14.8d lean	46 · 41
Apr 19, 26	Texas Public Opinion Research+1	1,018 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+14.8d lean	46 · 41
Apr 19, 26	University of Texas/Texas Politics Project+1For · Texas Politics Project	1,200 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	+15.8d lean	42 · 34
Mar 16, 26	Impact Research+2For · Internal D-aligned	900 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+10.7d lean	44 · 43
Mar 4, 26	Public Policy Polling+1For · Internal D-aligned	576 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	47 · 45
Feb 8, 26	Univ. of Houston+1	1,502 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	44 · 46
Jan 30, 26	University of Houston/YouGov+2For · YouGov	1,502 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+10.9d lean	44 · 46
Jan 14, 26	Emerson CollegeFor · Emerson Polling	1,165 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	46 · 46
Jan 11, 26	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	1,165 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	46 · 46
Nov 16, 25	Ragnar Research Partners+2For · Internal R-aligned	1,000 · LV	R-LEAN	—	-3.4decoupled	44 · 44
Oct 8, 25	Univ. of Houston - Texas Southern U.	1,183 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	46 · 49
Sep 30, 25	University of Houston/Texas Southern University+2For · Texas Southern University	1,650 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	—	46 · 49
Sep 29, 25	Univ. of Texas - Tyler	1,032 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	—	37 · 38
Sep 23, 25	UT Tyler+1	1,032 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	+9.4d lean	37 · 38
Jun 7, 25	Stratus Intelligence+1For · Internal R-aligned	800 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	39

· 33 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 84 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

48Talarico · 57%
Paxton · 43%36
Endorsements tracked
James Talarico48 · 57%
Ken Paxton36 · 43%
Total84
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DJames Talarico48 endorsers

Most notable · Barack Obama · former president of the United States (2009–2017)

Elected officials22

Federal 15State 6Local 0

Organizations16

Newspapers6

Celebrity3

Other1

RKen Paxton36 endorsers

Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)

Elected officials24

Federal 19State 3Local 0

Organizations6

Celebrity5

Newspapers1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-29

Ken PaxtonS6TX00388 ↗

Receipts

$7.6M

Disburse

$5.3M

Cash on hand

$2.3M

Debts

Cumulative receipts · 6 filings

Top industries

Self-employed / business owner$50.5K

Lawyers / law firms$49.0K

Top contributors

RYAN LLC$228.5K

ENTREPRENEUR$50.5K

LEDWELL$49.0K

DISCOVERY OPERATING INC.$28.0K

NORTON ROSE FULBRIGHT$28.0K

James TalaricoS6TX00479 ↗

Receipts

$40.3M

Disburse

$30.4M

Cash on hand

$9.9M

Debts

Cumulative receipts · 4 filings

Top industries

Education$70.1K

Internet$42.8K

Computers / electronics$18.6K

Lawyers / law firms$17.3K

Top contributors

UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS$35.3K

BAYLOR COLLEGE OF MEDICINE$34.8K

GOOGLE, INC.$22.9K

BGR GROUP$21.1K

GOOGLE$19.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$7.6M

D side

$6.1M · 80%

R side

$1.5M · 20%

Top spender

Lone Star Rising PAC

For / against split

For Talarico $4.1M

Against Paxton $2.0M

Against Talarico $243.0K

For Paxton $1.3M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
Lone Star Rising PAC	D	$4.1M	53%	for James Talarico
Texans Demanding Accountability	D	$1.9M	24%	against Ken Paxton
LONE STAR LIBERTY PAC	R	$970.1K	13%	for Ken Paxton
FELLOWSHIP PAC	R	$500.0K	7%	for Ken Paxton
Latino Victory Fund	D	$82.5K	1%	for James Talarico
Win it Back PAC	R	$43.0K	1%	against James Talarico

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Tossup2

Lean R2

Likely R1

The Cook Political Report

Lean R

May 25

The Economist

Tossup

May 21

Inside Elections

Likely R

Apr 22

RealClearPolitics

Tossup

May 18

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean R

May 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

In the news

40 shown · last 30d · Google News

News volume · 30d

91 articles · building history

Net favorability

+0.12

Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.07 wk

Coverage tilt

D 15%

Neutral 81%

R 3%

19% of outlets rated · by editorial lean