Races · Senate · 2026 · Tennessee
Senate · class II · open seat
Tennessee Senate
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe R (D win prob 5%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+25.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+35.4 (10th pctile) to R+14.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 10.4% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
CITATIONS · safe-r · high-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +25.2
80% CI: R +35.4 → R +14.9 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +32.0
80% CI R +33.4 → R +27.0
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +17.4
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 4¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-03Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$730.5K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$730.5K · 100%
Top spender
NATIONAL VICTORY AC…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATIONAL VICTORY ACTION FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $275.0K | 38% | for Bill Hagerty |
| WINNING RIGHT PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $220.0K | 30% | for Bill Hagerty |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $177.8K | 24% | for Bill Hagerty |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $57.7K | 8% | for Bill Hagerty |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 21
Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Apr 12
- Inside Elections · Apr 22
- RealClearPolitics · May 18
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Mar 3
The Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Likely RInside Elections
Safe RRealClearPolitics
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-03
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks