Republican primary · March 3, 2026
Texas Senate Republican primary
Ken Paxton won the Republican primary on March 3, 2026, advancing to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
Primary result · Republican primary
Official outcome · March 3, 2026 · forecast shown for reference1Ken PaxtonTexas attorney general · since 2015
2John CornynU.S. senator · since 2002
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 89 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Paxton | Cornyn | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 26 | YouGov | 1,659 · LV | 36 | 32 | +4 |
| Mar 1, 26 | YouGov | 1,688 · LV | 36 | 32 | +4 |
| Feb 28, 26 | Emerson College | 547 · LV | 40 | 36 | +4 |
| Feb 26, 26 | Emerson College | 547 · LV | 40 | 36 | +4 |
| Feb 26, 26 | Quantus Insights | 939 · LV | 43 | 38 | +5 |
| Feb 26, 26 | Univ. of Texas - Tyler | 499 · LV | 35 | 41 | +6 |
| Feb 25, 26 | Quantus Insights | 939 · LV | 43 | 38 | +5 |
| Feb 25, 26 | Blueprint Polling | 529 · LV | 42 | 30 | +12 |
| Feb 24, 26 | Victory Phones | 600 · LV | 39 | 30 | +9 |
| Feb 24, 26 | University of Texas | 350 · RV | 36 | 34 | +2 |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 130 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetJohn Cornyn · 94Ken Paxton · 36
RJohn Cornyn94 endorsers
Most notable · George W. Bush · former president of the United States (2001–2009) and governor of Texas (1995–2000)
Elected officials61
Federal 45State 6Local 7
Elected officials · 61
- George W. Bush · former president of the United States (2001–2009) and governor of Texas (1995–2000)
- John Barrasso · Senate majority whip (2025–present) from Wyoming (2007–present)
- John Thune · Senate majority leader (2025–present) from South Dakota (2005–present)
- Tom DeLay · former House majority leader (2003–2005) from TX-22 (1985–2006)
- Newt Gingrich · former speaker of the House (1995–1999) from GA-06 (1979–1999)
- Rick Perry · former U.S. secretary of energy (2017–2019) and governor of Texas (2000–2015)
- Kay Bailey Hutchison · former U.S. ambassador to NATO (2017–2021) and U.S. senator from Texas (1993–2013)
- Mike Pompeo · former U.S. secretary of state (2018–2021)
- Craig Goldman · TX-12 (2025–present)
- French Hill · AR-02 (2015–present)
- Jake Ellzey · TX-06 (2021–present)
- Michael McCaul · TX-10 (2005–present)
- Nathaniel Moran · TX-01 (2023–present)
- Pete Sessions · TX-17 (2021–present) and former TX-32 (1997–2019)
- Randy Weber · TX-14 (2013–present)
- Robert Nichols · SD-03 (2007–present)
- Roger Williams · TX-25 (2013–present)
- Betsy Price · former mayor of Fort Worth (2011–2021)
- Bill Archer · former TX-07 (1971–2001)
- Bill Flores · former TX-17 (2011–2021)
- Bill Hagerty · Tennessee (2021–present)
- Charles Perry · president pro tempore of the Texas Senate (2025–present) from SD-28 (2014–present)
- Dan Pope · former mayor of Lubbock (2016–2022)
- Donald Evans · former U.S. secretary of commerce (2001–2005)
- Harriet O'Neill · former justice of the Texas Supreme Court (1999–2010)
- Henry Bonilla · former TX-23 (1993–2007)
- J.E. "Eddie" Guerra · sheriff of Hidalgo County (2014–present) (Democratic)
- Javier Villalobos · mayor of McAllen (2021–present)
- Jeb Hensarling · former TX-05 (2003–2019)
- Jeffrey S. Boyd · former justice of the Texas Supreme Court (2012–2025)
- Jim Darling · former mayor of McAllen (2013–2021) (Democratic)
- Joe Barton · former TX-06 (1985–2019)
- John Culberson · former TX-07 (2001–2019)
- John Hoeven · North Dakota (2011–present)
- Katie Britt · Alabama (2023–present)
- Kenny Marchant · former TX-24 (2005–2021)
- Kevin Brady · former TX-08 (1997–2023)
- Lamar Smith · former TX-21 (1987–2019)
- Lindsey Graham · South Carolina (2003–present)
- Louie Gohmert · former TX-01 (2005–2023)
- Mac Thornberry · former TX-13 (1995–2021)
- Marsha Blackburn · Tennessee (2019–present)
- Mattie Parker · mayor of Fort Worth (2021–present)
- Michael Burgess · former TX-26 (2003–2025)
- Mike Conaway · former TX-11 (2005–2021)
- Mike Lee · Utah (2011–present)
- Pete Olson · former TX-22 (2009–2021)
- Pete Ricketts · Nebraska (2023–present)
- Pete Saenz · former mayor of Laredo (2014–2022) (Democratic)
- Phil Gramm · former Texas (1985–2002)
- Quico Canseco · former TX-23 (2011–2013)
- Rand Paul · Kentucky (2011–present)
- Rick Scott · Florida (2019–present)
- Steve Daines · Montana (2015–present)
- Susan Combs · former U.S. assistant secretary of the interior (2019–2020) and comptroller of Texas (2007–2015)
- Ted Poe · former TX-02 (2005–2019)
- Tim Scott · South Carolina (2013–present)
- Tim Sheehy · Montana (2025–present)
- Tom Cotton · Arkansas (2015–present)
- Tommy Tuberville · Alabama (2021–present)
- state representatives · esentatives
Organizations24
Organizations · 24
- AIPAC
- American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons
- American Ambulance Association
- ClearPath Foundation
- Combined Law Enforcement Associations of Texas
- Dallas Police Association
- Independent Bankers Association · of Texas
- National Association of Home Builders
- National Association of Realtors
- National Border Patrol Council
- National Federation of Independent Business
- National Republican Senatorial Committee
- Republican Jewish Coalition
- Seafarers International Union-AGLIWD
- Senate Leadership Fund
- Texas Alliance for Life
- Texas Association of Manufacturers
- Texas Association of Realtors
- Texas Chemistry Council
- Texas Farm Bureau
- Texas Homebuilders Association
- Texas Medical Association
- Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association
- United States Chamber of Commerce
Newspapers5
Newspapers · 5
- Austin American-Statesman
- Dallas Morning News
- Fort Worth Star-Telegram
- Houston Chronicle
- San Antonio Express-News
Celebrity3
Celebrity · 3
- Ayaan Hirsi Ali · conservative activist and former member of the Dutch House of Representatives (2003–2006)
- Jim McIngvale · businessman
- Max Lucado · pastor
Other1
Other · 1
- Pamela Willeford · former U.S. ambassador to Switzerland and Liechtenstein (2003–2006)
RKen Paxton36 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials24
Federal 19State 3Local 0
Elected officials · 24
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- JD Vance · vice president of the United States (2025–present)
- John Barrasso · Senate majority whip (2025–present) from Wyoming (2007–present)
- John Thune · Senate majority leader (2025–present) from South Dakota (2005–present)
- Matt Rinaldi · former HD-115 (2015–2019) and chair of the Texas Republican Party (2021–2024)
- Brandon Gill · TX-26 (2025–present)
- Burgess Owens · UT-04 (2021–present)
- Eli Crane · AZ-02 (2023–present)
- Eric Burlison · MO-07 (2023–present)
- Jeff Leach · HD-67 (2013–present)
- Lance Gooden · TX-05 (2019–present)
- Ronny Jackson · TX-13 (2021–present)
- Troy Nehls · TX-22 (2021–present)
- Wesley Hunt · TX-38 (2023–present) and former candidate for this seat
- Steve Bannon · former senior counselor to the president (2017)
- Anthony Kern · former Arizona 's SD-27 (2023–2025)
- Bernie Moreno · Ohio (2025–present)
- John Cornyn · Texas (2002–present) and former candidate for this seat
- Ted Cruz · Texas (2013–present)
- Tim Scott · South Carolina (2013–present)
- Tim Sheehy · Montana (2025–present)
- Tom Cotton · Arkansas (2015–present)
- state representatives · ves
- state senators · rs
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- Conservative Political Action Conference
- Gun Owners of America
- Political Victory Fund
- Republicans for National Renewal
- Texas Gun Rights
- Turning Point Action
Celebrity5
Celebrity · 5
- Dan K. Eberhart · businessman
- John Rich · singer
- Laura Loomer · political activist and conspiracy theorist
- Randy Quaid · actor
- Ted Nugent · guitarist
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Washington Reporter
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-06-29John CornynS2TX00106 ↗
Raised
$7.92M
Cash on hand
$4.08M
Cumulative receipts · 7 filings
Top industries
Securities & investment$112K
Securities & investment · $112K
- Blackstone · $39K
- Apollo · $28K
- Fidelity Investments · $25K
- Apollo Global Management · $21K
- Jane Street · $14K
Individuals $112K · PACs $0
Ken PaxtonS6TX00388 ↗
Raised
$7.61M
Cash on hand
$2.35M
Cumulative receipts · 6 filings
Top industries
Self-employed / business owner$50K
Self-employed / business owner · $50K
- Entrepreneur · $50K
Individuals $50K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$49K
Lawyers / law firms · $49K
- Norton Rose Fulbright · $28K
- Lanier Law Firm · $21K
Individuals $49K · PACs $0
Wesley HuntS6TX00511 ↗
Raised
$2.07M
Cash on hand
$33K
Cumulative receipts · 6 filings
Top industries
Oil & gas$45K
Oil & gas · $45K
- Permian Resources · $45K
Individuals $45K · PACs $0
Health professionals$14K
Health professionals · $14K
- Empower Clinic Services L.L.C. · $14K
Individuals $14K · PACs $0
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
91 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles91
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.12
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.07 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.12
Week-over-weekshift +0.07 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 15%
Neutral 81%
R 3%
19% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets15%
Neutral81%
R-leaning outlets3%
19% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Affordability emerging as a key issue in Texas' Senate race
A
Scoop: Thune to attend Paxton fundraiser
S
Why both Ken Paxton and James Talarico should be nervous
S
Talarico targets Paxton over plea deal in Texas child sex abuse case
K
EAST TEXAS POLITICS: One year later — State senator discusses findings from Texas Hill Country flood investigation
A
Texas Senate candidate Talarico calls for major increase in minimum wage
H
Ken Paxton takes issue with James Talarico labeling him a California transplant
T
Supreme Court decision loosening campaign finance rules could be boon for Paxton in Senate race
D
From breakfast tacos to free eggs, food takes center stage in Texas Senate race
F
WATCH: Obama, Harris advisor warns ‘betrayed’ Black voters could be Texas Senate candidate's kryptonite
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 89deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested4 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-29
Endorsements267 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks