Republican primary · August 4, 2026
Virginia Senate Republican primary
Field of 3 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
86
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (21.6pp).
Forecast CI width72
21.6pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution72 / 100
Measured21.6pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 2 polls + fundamentals1Bert MizusawaBert Kameaaloha Mizusawa is a retired major general in the United States Army, serving in the Army from 1979 to 2015. Mizusawa also served i…
2Kim FaringtonActor
3David WilliamsDavid or Dave Williams may refer to:
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Farington | Mizusawa | Williams | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 4 | The Public Sentiment Institute/Virginia Project | 382 · LV | 22 | 24 | 10 | +2 |
| May 4 | Public Sentiment Inst. | 382 · LV | 22 | 24 | 10 | +2 |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yetRKim Farington0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RBert Mizusawa0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RDavid Williams0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2025-12-17No FEC committee filings yet for the Republican primary candidates. Most primary candidates file quarterly; if the primary is recent the data may take a few weeks to appear.
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-12-17
Endorsements19 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks