Races · Senate · 2026 · West Virginia

Senate · class II · open seat

West Virginia Senate

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Safe RR +34.0 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 6 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
1% (D)
99% (R)
Win probability
Democrat1% (D)
Republican99% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +34.0
80% CIR+44.2 → R+23.7
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin R +34.0 · 80% CI R+44.2 → R+23.7 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

10.5%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 2¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+22) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+34.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+44.2 (10th pctile) to R+23.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

This race was decisive in 10.5% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.

CITATIONS · safe-r · high-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +34.0

80% CI: R +44.2 → R +23.7 · win prob 1%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	8.01pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +43.5

80% CI R +43.8 → R +37.2

CV MAE 8.51

consensusMarket-implied

R +20.5

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 2¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

0¢5¢10¢15¢94 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWApr 4Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Democrats win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026…”	2¢	96¢	-2¢	—	-1
Predictit “Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in West Vir…”	3¢	95¢	+0¢	—	+1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-12

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$337.6K

D side

$0 · 0%

R side

$337.6K · 100%

Top spender

TAKE ME HOME WV ACTION

For / against split

For Capito $337.6K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
TAKE ME HOME WV ACTION	R	$337.6K	100%	for Shelley Moore Capito
WEST VIRGINIA CHAMBER OF COMMERCE		$3.9K	1%	for Shelley Capito

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R5

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Apr 12

The Economist

Safe R

May 21

Inside Elections

Safe R

Apr 22

RealClearPolitics

Safe R

May 18

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Mar 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 3, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-12

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks