Races · Senate · 2026 · Virginia
Senate · class II · open seat · provisional matchup
Mark Warner vs Republican
Likely matchup — the Republican nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.
Info · primary pending
The Republican nominee hasn't been chosen yet
3 Republican candidates remain. See the republican primary →
Primary August 4, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 94% D
Polling average rates this race Safe D (D+26.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+12.8 with an 80% CI ranging from D+2.5 (10th pctile) to D+23.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 94% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 4.5% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (20.5pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width68
20.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution68 / 100
Measured20.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement83
16.6pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution83 / 100
Measured16.6pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +12.8
80% CI: D +2.5 → D +23.1 · win prob 94%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 6 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +7.0
80% CI D +6.0 → D +10.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +23.6
80% CI D +22.0 → D +25.2
CV MAE 1.27
consensusMarket-implied
D +17.4
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 96¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 41 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 96% · polls 54%.
Cross-platform price · history
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
6 polls · through Jun 16, 2026 · latest The Public Sentiment Institute
Mark Warner
VoteHub49.3%
VoteHub
Polling average49.3%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg54.3%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average54.3%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 5.0 pt below our average
Bert Mizusawa
VoteHub32.5%
VoteHub
Polling average32.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
David Williams
VoteHub32.5%
VoteHub
Polling average32.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Kim Farington
VoteHub32.0%
VoteHub
Polling average32.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Mark Moran
VoteHub3.5%
VoteHub
Polling average3.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg2.7%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average2.7%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.8 pt above our average
VoteHub's independent average across 6 polls (through Jun 16, 2026): Mark Warner 49.3%, Bert Mizusawa 32.5%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 6 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 4 | The Public Sentiment Institute/Virginia Project+1For · Virginia Project (R) | 1,047 · LV | R-LEAN | — | — | 54 · 29 |
| May 4 | The Public Sentiment Institute/Virginia Project+1For · Virginia Project (R) | 1,047 · LV | R-LEAN | — | — | 55 · 29 |
| May 4 | The Public Sentiment Institute/Virginia Project+1For · Virginia Project (R) | 1,047 · LV | R-LEAN | — | — | 54 · 29 |
| May 4 | Public Sentiment Inst.For · Virginia Project | 1,047 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 54 · 29 |
| May 4 | Public Sentiment Inst.For · Virginia Project | 1,047 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 55 · 29 |
| May 4 | Public Sentiment Inst.For · Virginia Project | 1,047 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 54 · 29 |
Endorsements · 19 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet19
Endorsements tracked
Mark Warner19 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total19
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DMark Warner19 endorsers
Most notable · Don Scott · speaker of the Virginia House of Delegates (2024–present) from HD-88 (2020–present)
Elected officials13
Federal 7State 4Local 0
Elected officials · 13
- Don Scott · speaker of the Virginia House of Delegates (2024–present) from HD-88 (2020–present)
- Abigail Spanberger · governor of Virginia (2026–present)
- Ghazala Hashmi · lieutenant governor of Virginia (2026–present)
- Jay Jones · attorney general of Virginia (2026–present)
- Don Beyer · VA-08 (2015–present)
- Eugene Vindman · VA-07 (2025–present)
- James Walkinshaw · VA-11 (2025–present)
- Jennifer McClellan · VA-04 (2023–present)
- Suhas Subramanyam · VA-10 (2025–present)
- Bobby Scott · VA-03 (1993-present)
- Tim Kaine · Virginia (2013–present)
- state delegates · tes
- state senators · ors
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- AIPAC
- Brady Campaign
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection
IMark Moran0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RRepublican0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-12-17Mark WarnerS6VA00093 ↗
Receipts
$14.7M
Disburse
$5.7M
Cash on hand
$14.6M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$136.9K
Securities & investment · $136.9K
- Apollo Global Management · $52.0K
- Goldman Sachs · $46.6K
- Blackstone, INC. · $38.3K
Individuals $136.9K · PACs $0
Top contributors
CORNING, INC.$69.0K
AT&T$68.5K
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$52.0K
GOLDMAN SACHS$46.6K
HAVELI INVESTMENTS$40.0K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$80
D side
$80 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
GIVEGREEN UNITED AC…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $80 | 100% | for Mark Warner |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Apr 12
- Inside Elections · Apr 22
- RealClearPolitics · May 18
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Mar 26
Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 21
The Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Likely DInside Elections
Safe DRealClearPolitics
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified6 / 6deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-12-17
Endorsements19 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks