Public domain
DemocratRunning for VA U.S. Senate · 2026
Mark Warner
Mark Robert Warner (born December 15, 1954) is an American businessman and politician serving as the senior United States senator from Virginia , a seat he has held since 2009. A member of the Democratic Party , Warner served as the 69th governor of Virginia from 2002 to 2006. He is vice chair of the Senate Democratic Caucus and vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee .
Born 1954 · Indianapolis , Indiana , U.S.
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03
Mark Warner, a Democrat who has served as U.S. senator from Virginia since 2009 and previously served as governor of Virginia from 2002 to 2006, is running for the U.S. Senate in Virginia in 2026. Polling shows him leading opponent Kim Farington by a wide margin, about 54% to roughly 29%, and betting markets on Polymarket put his win probability at around 90%. He has raised roughly $15 million for the campaign.
54.3%
Polling average
our aggregate
94%
Win probability
market-implied
$14.7M
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Warner's money comes from.
C+
54/100
Independence index
A mixed funding picture — pac independence is the watch item.
2 watch items · pac independence
Small-dollar reliance54
27% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence24
19% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding36
64% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
$80 in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
What Warner did in office.
MeasureYearAction
A bill to designate the community-based outpatient clinic of the Department of Veterans Affairs in Lynchburg,
Became Public Law No: 118-200.
2024
Became law
Joint Consolidation Loan Separation Act
Became Public Law No: 117-200.
2021
Became law
DNII Act of 2026
Read the second time. Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 450.
2026
Sponsored
Combat Emerging Threats to Critical Infrastructure Act of 2026
Read twice and referred to the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.
2026
Sponsored
Guaranteeing Universal Access to Cybersecurity Act
Read twice and referred to the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.
2026
Sponsored
A bill to designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 12109 New Kent Highway in New
Read twice and referred to the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.
2026
Sponsored
Discount Window Preparedness Act
Read twice and referred to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.
2026
Sponsored
SPONSORED LEGISLATION VIA CONGRESS.GOV · ENACTED BILLS FIRST, THEN THE MOST RECENT · ROLE SHOWS THE BILL'S LATEST STATUS.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How Warner votes
With the party, against it, and where on the spectrum.
Ideological placement · roll-call record
Dem median
GOP median
Warner
← LiberalCenterConservative →
Center-left
Overall lean
39
DW-NOMINATE · 0–100
DW-NOMINATE FIRST-DIMENSION SCORE FROM ROLL-CALL VOTES IN THE 119TH CONGRESS (SENATE), VIA VOTEVIEW. 0 = MOST LIBERAL, 100 = MOST CONSERVATIVE.
Party unity · 812 roll-calls · 119th Congress (Senate)
90%voted with Democrats · 10% broke ranks
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
1993Chairperson
1993–1995
2002Governor of Virginia
2002–2006
2004Chairperson
2004–2005
2009United States senator
since 2009
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$14.7M
Raised
$5.7M
Spent
$14.6M
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
27% small (<$200)54% large indiv.19% PAC
36% in-state · 64% out-of-state (itemized)
Top contributors · bundled by employer / org
CORNING, INC.
$69k
AT&T
$68k
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT
$52k
GOLDMAN SACHS
$47k
HAVELI INVESTMENTS
$40k
BLACKSTONE, INC.
$38k
Top industries · itemized $
Securities & investment$137k
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Race
The contest Warner is running in.
VA · SENATE · 2026safe d
Warner (D) vs Kim Farington (R)
54.3%+25.3 Warner29%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Warner and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Democrat
Will the Republicans win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Republican
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Virginia?
predictit · Democratic Party
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Virginia?
predictit · Republican Party
Virginia Senate winner?
Kalshi · vol $3 · Republican party
Virginia Senate winner?
Kalshi · vol $10 · Democratic party
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: UNITED STATES SENATE · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
Democrat · VA U.S. Senate
Mark Warner
Mark Robert Warner (born December 15, 1954) is an American businessman and politician serving as the senior United States senator from Virginia , a seat he has held since 2009. A member of the Democratic Party , Warner served as the 69th governor of Virginia from 2002 to 2006. He is vice chair of the Senate Democratic Caucus and vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee .
Where Warner standsRace →
Warner 54.3%Kim Farington 29%
Market · wins
94¢
54.3%
Poll avg
94%
Win prob
$14.7M
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03Mark Warner, a Democrat who has served as U.S. senator from Virginia since 2009 and previously served as governor of Virginia from 2002 to 2006, is running for the U.S. Senate in Virginia in 2026. Polling shows him leading opponent Kim Farington by a wide margin, about 54% to roughly 29%, and betting markets on Polymarket put his win probability at around 90%. He has raised roughly $15 million for the campaign.
Governing & voting record
A bill to designate the community-based outpatient clinic of the Department of Veterans Affairs in Lynchburg,
2024 · BECAME LAW
Joint Consolidation Loan Separation Act
2021 · BECAME LAW
DNII Act of 2026
2026 · SPONSORED
Combat Emerging Threats to Critical Infrastructure Act of 2026
2026 · SPONSORED
Guaranteeing Universal Access to Cybersecurity Act
2026 · SPONSORED
A bill to designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 12109 New Kent Highway in New
2026 · SPONSORED
Discount Window Preparedness Act
2026 · SPONSORED
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
1993Chairperson
1993–1995
2002Governor of Virginia
2002–2006
2004Chairperson
2004–2005
2009United States senator
since 2009
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Warner's money comes from.
C+
54/100
Independence index
A mixed funding picture — pac independence is the watch item.
2 watch items · pac independence
Small-dollar reliance54
27% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence24
19% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding36
64% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
$80 in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How Warner votes
Ideological placement · roll-call record
Dem median
GOP median
Warner
← LiberalCenterConservative →
Center-left
Overall lean
39
DW-NOMINATE · 0–100
DW-NOMINATE FIRST-DIMENSION SCORE FROM ROLL-CALL VOTES IN THE 119TH CONGRESS (SENATE), VIA VOTEVIEW. 0 = MOST LIBERAL, 100 = MOST CONSERVATIVE.
Party unity · 812 roll-calls · 119th Congress (Senate)
90%voted with Democrats · 10% broke ranks
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$14.7M
Raised
$5.7M
Spent
$14.6M
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
27% small (<$200)54% large indiv.19% PAC
36% in-state · 64% out-of-state (itemized)
Top industries · itemized $
Securities & investment$137k
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Race
VA · SENATE · 2026safe d
Warner (D) vs Kim Farington (R)
54.3%+25.3 Warner29%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Democrat
Will the Republicans win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Republican
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Virginia?
predictit · Democratic Party
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Virginia?
predictit · Republican Party
Virginia Senate winner?
Kalshi · vol $3 · Republican party
Virginia Senate winner?
Kalshi · vol $10 · Democratic party
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: UNITED STATES SENATE · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)