Races · Senate · 2026 · VA
Senate · class II · open seat

Mark Warner vs Glenn Youngkin

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Tossup — · 176 days to election · 1 polls · 4 markets Last poll 508d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 1 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 71% D

tossup · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
D +7.7
80% CI: R +9.8 → D +25.3 · win prob 71%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used1
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +9.7
80% CI D +9.3 → D +12.3
CV MAE 7.21
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +7.0
80% CI D +2.4 → D +11.6
CV MAE 3.56
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
D +7.7
80% CI R +9.8 → D +25.3
CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 1 results

1 of 1 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
12/18/2024Virginia Commonwealth University1.00—806±4.7A
no scored pollsadult sample+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • adult sample
    Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections.
  • 508d old
    Poll was fielded 508 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
Mark Warner 45.0 · Glenn Youngkin 38.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 15 total
Mark Warner (D)
15 endorsements · source
Elected officials (2)
  • Abigail Spanberger — governor of Virginia (2026–present) and former VA-7 (2019–2025) [ 15 ]
  • Don Scott — speaker of the Virginia House of Delegates (2024–present) from the 88th district (2020–present) [ 16 ]
Organizations / unions (3)
  • Jewish Democratic Council of America — [ 19 ]
  • Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs — [ 20 ]
  • Planned Parenthood Action Fund — [ 21 ]
Other (10)
  • AIPAC — [ 17 ]
  • Bobby Scott — VA-03 (1993-present) [ 15 ]
  • Brady Campaign — [ 18 ]
  • Don Beyer — VA-08 (2015–present) [ 15 ]
  • Eugene Vindman — VA-07 (2025–present) [ 15 ]
  • James Walkinshaw — VA-11 (2025–present) [ 15 ]
  • Jennifer McClellan — VA-04 (2023–present) [ 15 ]
  • Population Connection — [ 22 ]
  • Suhas Subramanyam — VA-10 (2025–present) [ 15 ]
  • Tim Kaine — Virginia (2013–present) [ 15 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe D Mar 27 — +18.0 —
Inside Elections Safe D Mar 27 — +18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe D Mar 27 — +18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 17 months ago (12/18/2024) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/3/2026 Tossup via pvi

In the news

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