Runoff election · March 3, 2026
Texas Senate runoff election
Field of 0 candidates running on a single ballot (jungle / nonpartisan format). Top finishers advance to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the runoff election view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
Forecast · runoff election
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 8 polls + fundamentals1Paxton
2Cornyn
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 10 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 24 | Quantus Insights | 1,018 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 53 |
| May 19 | Global Strategy Group | 600 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 52 |
| May 4 | Univ. of Houston | 1,200 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 48 |
| Apr 15 | Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,225 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 48 |
| Apr 13 | co/efficient | 1,143 · LV | R-LEAN | — | — | 43 |
| Mar 29 | GQR | 600 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 47 |
| Mar 23 | Quantus Insights | 1,218 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 49 |
| Mar 18 | Change Research | 811 · RV | D-LEAN | — | — | 42 |
| Mar 12 | Public Policy Polling | 565 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 45 |
| Mar 8 | Texas Public Opinion Research | 781 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 49 |
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-06-29James TalaricoS6TX00479 ↗
Raised
$40.28M
Cash on hand
$9.86M
Cumulative receipts · 4 filings
Top industries
Education$70K
Education · $70K
- University of Texas · $35K
- Baylor College of Medicine · $35K
Individuals $70K · PACs $0
Internet$43K
Internet · $43K
- Google, INC. · $23K
- Google · $20K
Individuals $43K · PACs $0
Computers / electronics$19K
Computers / electronics · $19K
- Apple, INC. · $19K
Individuals $19K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$17K
Lawyers / law firms · $17K
- Jackson Walker, LLP · $17K
Individuals $17K · PACs $0
John CornynS2TX00106 ↗
Raised
$7.92M
Cash on hand
$4.08M
Cumulative receipts · 7 filings
Top industries
Securities & investment$112K
Securities & investment · $112K
- Blackstone · $39K
- Apollo · $28K
- Fidelity Investments · $25K
- Apollo Global Management · $21K
- Jane Street · $14K
Individuals $112K · PACs $0
Jasmine CrockettS6TX00552 ↗
Raised
$11.09M
Cash on hand
$633K
Cumulative receipts · 3 filings
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$32K
Lawyers / law firms · $32K
- Smith Lacien LLP · $11K
- Montgomery Law · $7K
- Law Office of Reginald E. Mckamie · $7K
- Sidley · $7K
Individuals $32K · PACs $0
Ken PaxtonS6TX00388 ↗
Raised
$7.61M
Cash on hand
$2.35M
Cumulative receipts · 6 filings
Top industries
Self-employed / business owner$50K
Self-employed / business owner · $50K
- Entrepreneur · $50K
Individuals $50K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$49K
Lawyers / law firms · $49K
- Norton Rose Fulbright · $28K
- Lanier Law Firm · $21K
Individuals $49K · PACs $0
Colin AllredS4TX00722 ↗
Raised
$7.63M
Cash on hand
$12K
Cumulative receipts · 4 filings
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$47K
Lawyers / law firms · $47K
- Aza Law · $20K
- Blank Rome LLP · $11K
- Blank Rome, LLP · $9K
- Mullin Hoard & Brown, LLP · $8K
Individuals $47K · PACs $0
Health professionals$9K
Health professionals · $9K
- Ut Southwestern Medical Center · $9K
Individuals $9K · PACs $0
Internet$8K
Internet · $8K
- Google, INC. · $8K
Individuals $8K · PACs $0
Wesley HuntS6TX00511 ↗
Raised
$2.07M
Cash on hand
$33K
Cumulative receipts · 6 filings
Top industries
Oil & gas$45K
Oil & gas · $45K
- Permian Resources · $45K
Individuals $45K · PACs $0
Health professionals$14K
Health professionals · $14K
- Empower Clinic Services L.L.C. · $14K
Individuals $14K · PACs $0
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
91 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles91
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.12
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.07 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.12
Week-over-weekshift +0.07 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 15%
Neutral 81%
R 3%
19% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets15%
Neutral81%
R-leaning outlets3%
19% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Affordability emerging as a key issue in Texas' Senate race
A
Scoop: Thune to attend Paxton fundraiser
S
Why both Ken Paxton and James Talarico should be nervous
S
Talarico targets Paxton over plea deal in Texas child sex abuse case
K
EAST TEXAS POLITICS: One year later — State senator discusses findings from Texas Hill Country flood investigation
A
Texas Senate candidate Talarico calls for major increase in minimum wage
H
Ken Paxton takes issue with James Talarico labeling him a California transplant
T
Supreme Court decision loosening campaign finance rules could be boon for Paxton in Senate race
D
From breakfast tacos to free eggs, food takes center stage in Texas Senate race
F
WATCH: Obama, Harris advisor warns ‘betrayed’ Black voters could be Texas Senate candidate's kryptonite
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 10deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested4 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-29
Endorsements267 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks