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Races · Senate · 2026 · Texas · general · Democratic primary
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PhasesShowing the Democratic primary. Other views:general election·Republican primary·runoff election
Democratic primary · March 3, 2026

Texas Senate Democratic primary

James Talarico won the Democratic primary on March 3, 2026, advancing to the general election on November 3, 2026.

Primary passed· 35 polls
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Showing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.

Primary result · Democratic primary

Official outcome · March 3, 2026 · forecast shown for reference
1James TalaricoTexas state representative · Austin55.0%✓ Won
2Jasmine CrockettJasmine Felicia Crockett (born March 29, 1981) is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for Texas's 30th congressional d…39.7%Lost

Polling average

2530354045505560TALARICO 45.7CROCKETT 46.4SEP '25FEB '26JUN '26
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 35 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popTalaricoCrockettLead
Mar 1, 26YouGov2,408 · LV5340+13
Mar 1, 26YouGov2,427 · LV5340+13
Feb 28, 26Emerson College850 · LV5247+5
Feb 26, 26Emerson College850 · LV5247+5
Feb 26, 26Univ. of Texas - Tyler451 · LV3755+18
Feb 25, 26Blueprint Polling472 · LV5240+12
Feb 24, 26Public Policy Polling599 · LV4842+6
Feb 24, 26University of Texas369 · RV4456+12
Feb 23, 26Blueprint Polling472 · LV5240+12
Feb 21, 26UT Tyler488 · LV3755+18
Feb 15, 26University of Texas/Texas Politics Project369 · RV4456+12
Feb 11, 26Impact Research800 · LV4743+4
Feb 8, 26Univ. of Houston550 · LV3947+8
Jan 30, 26University of Houston/YouGov550 · LV3947+8
Jan 20, 26Slingshot Strategies1,290 · LV3738+1
Jan 14, 26HIT Strategies1,005 · LV3346+13
Jan 14, 26Emerson College413 · LV4738+9
Jan 11, 26Emerson College413 · LV4738+9
Dec 11, 25Texas Southern University1,600 · LV4351+8
Dec 10, 25Texas Southern University1,600 · LV4351+8
Dec 3, 25Impact Research · unknown3552+17
Oct 28, 25Impact Research836 · LV48
Oct 8, 25Univ. of Houston - Texas Southern U.478 · LV2531+6
Sep 30, 25University of Houston/Texas Southern University478 · RV3452+18
Sep 30, 25University of Houston/Texas Southern University478 · RV2531+6
Sep 29, 25Univ. of Texas - Tyler377 · RV30
Sep 23, 25UT Tyler377 · RV30
Sep 23, 25UT Tyler377 · RV29
Sep 11, 25Texas Public Opinion Research270 · RV726+19
Sep 3, 25Public Policy Polling510 · LV32
Aug 28, 25Texas Public Opinion Research270 · RV726+19
Aug 18, 25Texas Southern University1,500 · LV43
Aug 11, 25Texas Southern University1,500 · LV43
Aug 11, 25Texas Southern University1,500 · LV
Jul 6, 25NRSC566 · LV35
· 35 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · Democratic primary · 71 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
48
23
James Talarico · 48Jasmine Crockett · 23
DJames Talarico48 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · former president of the United States (2009–2017)
Elected officials22
Federal 15State 6Local 0
Organizations16
Newspapers6
Celebrity3
Other1
DJasmine Crockett23 endorsers
Most notable · Kamala Harris · former vice president of the United States (2021–2025)
Elected officials13
Federal 9State 3Local 1
Organizations5
Celebrity4
Newspapers1

Money in this primary

FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-06-29
James TalaricoS6TX00479 ↗
Raised
$40.28M
Cash on hand
$9.86M
Cumulative receipts · 4 filings
Education$70K
Internet$43K
Computers / electronics$19K
Lawyers / law firms$17K
Jasmine CrockettS6TX00552 ↗
Raised
$11.09M
Cash on hand
$633K
Cumulative receipts · 3 filings
Lawyers / law firms$32K
Colin AllredS4TX00722 ↗
Raised
$7.63M
Cash on hand
$12K
Cumulative receipts · 4 filings
Lawyers / law firms$47K
Health professionals$9K
Internet$8K

In the news

40 shown · last 30d · Google News
News volume · 30d
91 articles · building history
Net favorability
+0.12
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.07 wk
Coverage tilt
D 15%
Neutral 81%
R 3%
19% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
N
nbcdfw.com · 2d ago
Affordability emerging as a key issue in Texas' Senate race
Neutral
A
axios.com · 2d ago
Scoop: Thune to attend Paxton fundraiser
Neutral
S
statesman.com · 2d ago
Why both Ken Paxton and James Talarico should be nervous
Neutral
S
spectrumlocalnews.com · 3d ago
Talarico targets Paxton over plea deal in Texas child sex abuse case
Neutral
K
kltv.com · 4d ago
EAST TEXAS POLITICS: One year later — State senator discusses findings from Texas Hill Country flood investigation
Neutral
A
audacy.com · 6d ago
Texas Senate candidate Talarico calls for major increase in minimum wage
Neutral
H
houstonchronicle.com · 6d ago
Ken Paxton takes issue with James Talarico labeling him a California transplant
Neutral
T
texastribune.org · 7d ago
Supreme Court decision loosening campaign finance rules could be boon for Paxton in Senate race
Neutral
D
dallasnews.com · 7d ago
From breakfast tacos to free eggs, food takes center stage in Texas Senate race
Neutral
F
foxnews.com · 7d ago
WATCH: Obama, Harris advisor warns ‘betrayed’ Black voters could be Texas Senate candidate's kryptonite
R-favorable
Page 1 of 4
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 35deterministic
Polls flaggednone
Markets ingested4 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-29
Endorsements267 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks