NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Photo of Ken PaxtonR
CC BY-SA 4.0
RepublicanRunning for TX U.S. Senate · 2026

Ken Paxton

Texas attorney general · since 2015
Warren Kenneth Paxton Jr. is an American politician and lawyer who has served as the attorney general of Texas since 2015. A member of the Republican Party, he is the Republican nominee in the U.S. Senate election in Texas in 2026.
Born 1962 · Minot, North Dakota , U.S.
In brief
—
No profile summary yet
Summaries are written and fact-checked against the underlying data in nightly batches. This candidate's hasn't been generated or verified yet.
45.8%
Polling average
our aggregate
57%
Win probability
market-implied
$7.6M
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mix

Who Paxton's money comes from.

B+
75/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans independent — pac independence is the standout.
1 watch item · small-dollar reliance
Small-dollar reliance32
16% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence100
0% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding84
16% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure85
$1.3M in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
2003Member of the Texas House of Representatives
2003–2013
2013Member of the State Senate of Texas
2013–2015
2015Texas Attorney General
since 2015
Media coverage
Mixed / neutral
Coverage tone
−0.2
Avg tone
No published favorability polling was found for this candidate. This is the average tone of recent news coverage about them (GDELT news index) on a −10 to +10 scale — a measure of how the press is covering them, not a poll or a measure of public opinion.
GDELT news index · wk ending 2026-07-12
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-date

Who funds the campaign.

$7.6M
Raised
$5.3M
Spent
$2.3M
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
16% small (<$200)84% large indiv.0% PAC
84% in-state · 16% out-of-state (itemized)
Top contributors · bundled by employer / org
RYAN LLC
$229k
ENTREPRENEUR
$50k
LEDWELL
$49k
DISCOVERY OPERATING INC.
$28k
NORTON ROSE FULBRIGHT
$28k
BOBBY COX COMPANIES INC
$28k
Top industries · itemized $
Self-employed / business owner$50k
Lawyers / law firms$49k
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-05-06 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Race

The contest Paxton is running in.

TX · SENATE · 2026tilt d
Paxton (R) vs James Talarico (D)
45.8%+0.1 Paxton45.7%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →

Live contract prices tied to Paxton and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.

Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: GAGE SKIDMORE · CC BY-SA 4.0 (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
Related coverage
N
nbcdfw.com · 2026-07-06
Affordability emerging as a key issue in Texas' Senate race
A
axios.com · 2026-07-06
Scoop: Thune to attend Paxton fundraiser
S
statesman.com · 2026-07-06
Why both Ken Paxton and James Talarico should be nervous
S
spectrumlocalnews.com · 2026-07-05
Talarico targets Paxton over plea deal in Texas child sex abuse case
Photo of Ken PaxtonR
Republican · TX U.S. Senate

Ken Paxton

Texas attorney general · since 2015

Warren Kenneth Paxton Jr. is an American politician and lawyer who has served as the attorney general of Texas since 2015. A member of the Republican Party, he is the Republican nominee in the U.S. Senate election in Texas in 2026.

Where Paxton standsRace →
Paxton 45.8%James Talarico 45.7%
Market · wins
57¢
45.8%
Poll avg
57%
Win prob
$7.6M
Raised
In brief
—
No profile summary yet
Summaries are written and fact-checked against the underlying data in nightly batches. This candidate's hasn't been generated or verified yet.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
2003Member of the Texas House of Representatives
2003–2013
2013Member of the State Senate of Texas
2013–2015
2015Texas Attorney General
since 2015
Media coverage
Mixed / neutral
Coverage tone
−0.2
Avg tone
No published favorability polling was found for this candidate. This is the average tone of recent news coverage about them (GDELT news index) on a −10 to +10 scale — a measure of how the press is covering them, not a poll or a measure of public opinion.
GDELT news index · wk ending 2026-07-12
Independence scorecard

Who Paxton's money comes from.

B+
75/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans independent — pac independence is the standout.
1 watch item · small-dollar reliance
Small-dollar reliance32
16% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence100
0% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding84
16% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure85
$1.3M in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$7.6M
Raised
$5.3M
Spent
$2.3M
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
16% small (<$200)84% large indiv.0% PAC
84% in-state · 16% out-of-state (itemized)
Top industries · itemized $
Self-employed / business owner$50k
Lawyers / law firms$49k
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-05-06 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Race
TX · SENATE · 2026tilt d
Paxton (R) vs James Talarico (D)
45.8%+0.1 Paxton45.7%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: GAGE SKIDMORE · CC BY-SA 4.0 (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)