Races · Governor · 2026 · Nevada
Governor · open seat
Aaron Ford vs Joe Lombardo
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 1 poll has landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 58% R
Polling average rates this race Lean R (R+2.3, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+1.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+12.7 (10th pctile) to D+9.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 58% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 23.2% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Uncertainty score: 82/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (22.0pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · lean-r · high-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
82
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement22
4.5pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution22 / 100
Measured4.5pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +1.7
80% CI: R +12.7 → D +9.3 · win prob 42%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 9 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +0.1
80% CI R +12.6 → D +2.2
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.6
80% CI R +6.6 → R +2.5
CV MAE 1.60
consensusMarket-implied
D +2.0
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 59¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 18 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 59% · polls 41%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
2 polls · through Mar 13, 2026 · latest Noble Predictive Insights
Joe Lombardo
VoteHub42.5%
VoteHub
Polling average42.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg44.1%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average44.1%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 1.6 pt below our average
Aaron Ford
VoteHub40.5%
VoteHub
Polling average40.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg40.9%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average40.9%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.4 pt below our average
VoteHub's independent average across 2 polls (through Mar 13, 2026): Joe Lombardo 42.5%, Aaron Ford 40.5%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 9 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 26 | Global Strategy GroupFor · Internal D-aligned | 700 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +2.6d lean | 42 · 45 |
| Mar 26, 26 | Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive Insights | 845 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +3.04 tracked | +3.4d lean | 38 · 39 |
| Mar 12, 26 | Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive | 845 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +3.04 tracked | +3.4d lean | 38 · 39 |
| Feb 16, 26 | Hart Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 800 · LV | D-LEAN | — | — | 43 · 46 |
| Nov 20, 25 | Emerson CollegeFor · Emerson Polling | 800 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 41 · 41 |
| Nov 17, 25 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 800 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 41 · 41 |
| Oct 20, 25 | Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Channel 13 Las Vegas News KTNV | 766 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +3.04 tracked | +3.4d lean | 37 · 40 |
| Oct 12, 25 | Noble Predictive Insights+1For · Channel 13 Las Vegas News KTNV | 766 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +3.04 tracked | +3.4d lean | 37 · 40 |
| May 18, 23 | Vote TXT | 412 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 30 · 51 |
Endorsements · 19 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet17
2
Endorsements tracked
Aaron Ford17 · 89%
Joe Lombardo2 · 11%
Total19
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DAaron Ford17 endorsers
Most notable · Sandra Jauregui · majority leader of the Nevada Assembly from AD-41 (2016–present)
Elected officials12
Federal 5State 7Local 0
Elected officials · 12
- Sandra Jauregui · majority leader of the Nevada Assembly from AD-41 (2016–present)
- Daniele Monroe-Moreno · speaker pro tempore of the Nevada Assembly (2023–present) from AD-01 (2016–present) and chair of the Nevada Democratic Party (2023–present)
- Cecelia González · AD-16 (2020–present)
- David Orentlicher · AD-20 (2020–present)
- Fabian Doñate · SD-10 (2021–present)
- Reuben D'Silva · AD-28 (2022–present)
- Selena Torres · AD-03 (2019–present)
- Susie Lee · NV-03 (2019–present)
- Catherine Cortez Masto · Nevada (2017–present)
- Dina Titus · NV-01 (2009–2011, 2013–present)
- Jacky Rosen · Nevada (2019–present)
- Steven Horsford · NV-04 (2013–2015, 2019–present)
Organizations5
Organizations · 5
- End Citizens United
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Nevada Conservation League
- Nevada State Education Association
- Reproductive Freedom for All
RJoe Lombardo2 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Turning Point Action
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Aaron Ford
Receipts
$3.0M
Disburse
$1.6M
Cash on hand
—
Debts
—
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tossup2
Tossup · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
Tilt R1
Tilt R · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Lean R1
Lean R · 1 rater
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Cook Political Report
TossupInside Elections
Tilt RRealClearPolitics
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
96 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles96
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.06
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.12 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.06
Week-over-weekshift +0.12 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 8%
Neutral 90%
R 2%
10% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets8%
Neutral90%
R-leaning outlets2%
10% of outlets classified by editorial lean
C
‘Democrats for Lombardo’ Launches with Over 120 Prominent NV Democrats Backing Governor’s Reelection Bid
R
Lombardo campaign adviser leads water lawsuit seeking billions from Nevada
T
Governor Lombardo Unveils 1,627-Acre State Park Along Carson River; Public Submissions Open for Naming
N
Who Is Ahead in the Nevada Governor's Race? Latest 2026 Election Polls
2
Governor Joe Lombardo named Vice Chair of Western Governors Association
F
Governor Lombardo joins 10-state agreement to expand Western electric grid
K
Gov. Lombardo praises Supreme Court for ruling on transgender athletes
K
Gov. Lombardo praises Supreme Court for ruling on transgender athletes
C
RNC Sues Nevada Democrats for Allowing Non-Residents to Vote in State Elections
N
Nevada officials applaud Supreme Court ruling on late-arriving mail ballots
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified7 / 9deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements21 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks