Races · Governor · 2026 · Massachusetts
Governor · open seat · provisional matchup
Maura Healey vs Republican
Likely matchup — the Republican nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.
Info · primary pending
The Republican nominee hasn't been chosen yet
3 Republican candidates remain. See the republican primary →
Primary September 1, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
Polling average rates this race Safe D (D+24.7, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+24.7 with an 80% CI ranging from D+13.7 (10th pctile) to D+35.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 14.5% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Polling momentum is moving toward R at 3.5pp/wk over the 30d window — a real shift, not noise.
Uncertainty score: 45/100 (medium). Polls and forecasts agree at a moderate level.
CITATIONS · safe-d · high-tipping · trending-r · uncertainty-medium
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
45
Medium uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (22.0pp).
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement17
3.5pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution17 / 100
Measured3.5pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion42
4.2pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution42 / 100
Measured4.2pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity0
10 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution0 / 100
Measured10 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +24.7
80% CI: D +13.7 → D +35.7 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 30 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +21.2
80% CI R +21.3 → D +32.6
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +24.2
80% CI D +22.4 → D +26.0
CV MAE 1.38
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.2
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 93¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 40 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 93% · polls 53%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
4 polls · through Jun 23, 2026 · latest University of New Hampshire
Maura Healey
VoteHub56.0%
VoteHub
Polling average56.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg52.9%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average52.9%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 3.1 pt above our average
Maura Healy
VoteHub50.5%
VoteHub
Polling average50.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Michael Minogue
VoteHub32.0%
VoteHub
Polling average32.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Mike Minogue
VoteHub31.0%
VoteHub
Polling average31.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Brian Shortsleeve
VoteHub30.5%
VoteHub
Polling average30.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
VoteHub's independent average across 4 polls (through Jun 23, 2026): Maura Healey 56.0%, Maura Healy 50.5%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 30 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 26 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 623 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +1.4aligned | 50 · 32 |
| Jun 29, 26 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 623 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +1.4aligned | 51 · 32 |
| Jun 22, 26 | University of New HampshireFor · University of New Hampshire | 623 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 51 · 32 |
| Jun 22, 26 | University of New HampshireFor · University of New Hampshire | 623 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 50 · 32 |
| Jun 15, 26 | Suffolk University+1For · The Boston Globe | 500 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +1.221 tracked | +0.8aligned | 56 · 29 |
| Jun 15, 26 | Suffolk University+1For · The Boston Globe | 500 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +1.221 tracked | +0.8aligned | 56 · 31 |
| Jun 11, 26 | Suffolk University+1For · The Boston Globe | 500 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.221 tracked | +0.8aligned | 56 · 31 |
| Jun 11, 26 | Suffolk University+1For · The Boston Globe | 500 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.221 tracked | +0.8aligned | 56 · 29 |
| May 18, 26 | Polity Research | 608 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 59 · 30 |
| May 18, 26 | Polity Research | 608 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 58 · 31 |
Endorsements · 21 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet21
Endorsements tracked
Maura Healey21 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total21
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DMaura Healey21 endorsers
Most notable · Michael O. Moore · state senator from the 2nd Worcester district (2009–present)
Elected officials14
Federal 0State 11Local 3
Elected officials · 14
- Michael O. Moore · state senator from the 2nd Worcester district (2009–present)
- Robyn Kennedy · state senator from the 1st Worcester district (2023–present)
- Brian Ashe · state representative from the 2nd Hampden district (2009–present)
- Dan Donahue · state representative from the 16th Worcester district (2013–present)
- David LeBoeuf · state representative from the 17th Worcester district (2019–present)
- Jim O'Day · state representative from the 14th Worcester district (2007–present)
- John J. Mahoney · state representative from the 13th Worcester district (2011–present)
- Joseph O'Brien · former mayor of Worcester (2010–2012)
- Joseph Petty · mayor of Worcester (2012–present)
- Joshua Garcia · mayor of Holyoke (2021–present)
- Kim Driscoll · incumbent lieutenant governor (2023–present)
- Mary Keefe · state representative from the 15th Worcester district (2013–present)
- Patricia Duffy · state representative from the 5th Hampden district (2021–present)
- Paul DePalo · governor's councillor from the 7th district (2021–present)
Organizations7
Organizations · 7
- EMILYs List
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- LGBTQ+ Victory Fund
- Massachusetts AFL-CIO
- Massachusetts Democratic Party
RRepublican0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DRealClearPolitics
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
70 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles70
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.16
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.02 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.16
Week-over-weekshift −0.02 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 17%
Neutral 81%
R 1%
19% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets17%
Neutral81%
R-leaning outlets1%
19% of outlets classified by editorial lean
G
Climate programs regain footing as Massachusetts Dems debate energy affordability
T
Massachusetts Republicans Slam Gov. Healey for Blaming Trump on Blocked Housing Bill 'Basically giving everything free to immigrants'
E
Maura Healey Praises Evacuation in Boston Weather Alert
B
MNA: Gov. Healey Convenes MGB, Nurse and Clinician Representatives at State House Monday as Historic Strike Approaches
F
Governor Healey has announced free parking at Mass. State Parks, beaches for the July 4 weekend.
N
Massachusetts Lawmakers Send Bloated $63.4 Billion Budget To Maura Healey's Desk
W
Bill to close loophole in sexual assault cases moves to Governor Healey’s desk
W
Massachusetts voters weigh in on the governor race and the candidates are feeling the heat.
W
Massachusetts voters weigh in on the race for governor and candidates
B
Governor Healey announces free parking at Mass. State Parks, beaches for July 4 weekend
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified27 / 30deterministic
Polls flagged2needs review
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements54 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks