Republican primary · September 1, 2026
Massachusetts Governor Republican primary
Field of 3 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
48
Medium uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (13.6pp).
Forecast CI width45
13.6pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution45 / 100
Measured13.6pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity50
4 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution50 / 100
Measured4 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 6 polls + fundamentals1Mike MinogueChallenger
2Brian ShortsleeveBrian Shortsleeve ( Republican Party ) is running for election for Governor of Massachusetts . He declared candidacy for the Republican prim…
3Mike KennealyMike Kennealy ( Republican Party ) is running for election for Governor of Massachusetts . He declared candidacy for the Republican primary …
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 9 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Minogue | Shortsleeve | Kennealy | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 26 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 176 · LV | 46 | 15 | — | +31 |
| Jun 22, 26 | University of New Hampshire | 176 · LV | 46 | 15 | — | +31 |
| Jun 1, 26 | Suffolk University | 465 · LV | 45 | 13 | — | +32 |
| May 28, 26 | Suffolk University | 465 · LV | 45 | 13 | — | +32 |
| Feb 23, 26 | Pulse Decision Science | 500 · LV | 29 | 16 | 7 | +13 |
| Nov 22, 25 | Suffolk University | 93 · LV | 6 | 22 | 13 | +9 |
| Oct 28, 25 | UMass Amherst/YouGov | 183 · A | 13 | 13 | 44 | +31 |
| Sep 28, 25 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 150 · LV | — | 31 | 22 | +9 |
| Sep 22, 25 | University of New Hampshire | 148 · LV | — | 31 | 22 | +9 |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 16 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetBrian Shortsleeve · 11Mike Kennealy · 3Mike Minogue · 2
RBrian Shortsleeve11 endorsers
Most notable · Peter Durant · state senator from the Worcester and Hampshire district (2023–present)
Elected officials10
Federal 1State 9Local 0
Elected officials · 10
- Peter Durant · state senator from the Worcester and Hampshire district (2023–present)
- Daniel K. Webster · former state representative from the 6th Plymouth district (2003–2013)
- Ginny Coppola · former state representative from the 1st Bristol district (2006–2007)
- Jeff Perry · former state representative from the 5th Barnstable district (2003–2011)
- Marc Lombardo · state representative from the 22nd Middlesex district (2011–present)
- Nicholas Boldyga · state representative from the 3rd Hampden district (2011–present)
- Paul Frost · state representative from the 7th Worcester district (1997–present)
- Shaunna O'Connell · mayor of Taunton (2020–present) and former state representative from the 3rd Bristol district (2011–2020)
- Tom Cotton · Arkansas (2015–present)
- William Crocker Jr. · former state representative from the 2nd Barnstable district (2017–2021)
Other1
Other · 1
- Scott Brown · former ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa (2017–2020)
RMike Kennealy3 endorsers
Most notable · F. Jay Barrows · former state representative from the 1st Bristol district (2007–2025)
Elected officials3
Federal 0State 3Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- F. Jay Barrows · former state representative from the 1st Bristol district (2007–2025)
- Hannah Kane · state representative from the 11th Worcester district (2015–present)
- Kimberly Ferguson · state representative from the 1st Worcester district (2011–present)
RMike Minogue2 endorsers
Most notable · Jim Lyons · former chair of the Massachusetts Republican Party (2019–2023) and former state representative from the 18th Essex district (2011–2019)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Massachusetts Republican Party
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Jim Lyons · former chair of the Massachusetts Republican Party (2019–2023) and former state representative from the 18th Essex district (2011–2019)
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
70 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles70
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.16
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.02 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.16
Week-over-weekshift −0.02 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 17%
Neutral 81%
R 1%
19% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets17%
Neutral81%
R-leaning outlets1%
19% of outlets classified by editorial lean
G
Climate programs regain footing as Massachusetts Dems debate energy affordability
T
Massachusetts Republicans Slam Gov. Healey for Blaming Trump on Blocked Housing Bill 'Basically giving everything free to immigrants'
E
Maura Healey Praises Evacuation in Boston Weather Alert
B
MNA: Gov. Healey Convenes MGB, Nurse and Clinician Representatives at State House Monday as Historic Strike Approaches
F
Governor Healey has announced free parking at Mass. State Parks, beaches for the July 4 weekend.
N
Massachusetts Lawmakers Send Bloated $63.4 Billion Budget To Maura Healey's Desk
W
Bill to close loophole in sexual assault cases moves to Governor Healey’s desk
W
Massachusetts voters weigh in on the governor race and the candidates are feeling the heat.
W
Massachusetts voters weigh in on the race for governor and candidates
B
Governor Healey announces free parking at Mass. State Parks, beaches for July 4 weekend
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 9deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements54 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks