Races · Governor · 2026 · Maryland

Governor · open seat

Maryland Governor

← Massachusetts Governor Maine Governor →

Safe DD +22.4 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 1 polls · 4 marketsLast poll 198d agoMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
99% Moore (D)
1% (R)
Win probability
Wes Moore99% (D)
Republican1% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +22.4
80% CID+11.4 → D+33.4
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +22.4 · 80% CI D+11.4 → D+33.4 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

14.6%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 93¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+14) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+22.4 with an 80% CI ranging from D+11.4 (10th pctile) to D+33.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

This race was decisive in 14.6% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.

CITATIONS · likely-d · high-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +22.4

80% CI: D +11.4 → D +33.4 · win prob 99%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	1
Days to election	118
Residual σ	8.57pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +22.0

80% CI R +26.0 → D +32.7

CV MAE 8.51

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

D +14.0

80% CI D +9.4 → D +18.6

CV MAE 3.60

consensusMarket-implied

D +14.2

no interval

market-implied

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
464850525456MOORE 50.0DEC '24JUN '25DEC '25
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 93¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago

DisagreementMarkets are 43 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 93% · polls 50%.

Cross-platform price · history

80¢85¢90¢95¢100¢428 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 5Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republicans win the Maryland governor race in 2026?”	95¢	4¢	+0¢	—	+2
Kalshi “Maryland Governor winner?”	91¢	9¢	+1¢	$0K	-2

All polls · 1 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Dec 20	Gonzales ResearchFor · Maryland Matters	808 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	—	50

Endorsements · 29 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

29Moore · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Wes Moore29 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total29
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DWes Moore29 endorsers

Most notable · Sharon Green Middleton · vice chair of the Baltimore City Council (2016–present) from the 6th district (2007–present)

Organizations13

Elected officials10

Federal 3State 0Local 5

Other5

Newspapers1

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D4

Cook Political Report

Safe D

May 20

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 24

RealClearPolitics

Safe D

Jun 4

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jun 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 3, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified1 / 1deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago

FEC filings—no filings yet

Endorsements59 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks