Races · Governor · 2026 · Kansas
Governor · open seat
Kansas Governor
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 80% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+7.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+18.1 (10th pctile) to D+3.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 80% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 27.9% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (22.0pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · likely-r · high-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement64
12.8pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution64 / 100
Measured12.8pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +7.1
80% CI: R +18.1 → D +3.9 · win prob 20%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +20.0
80% CI R +29.9 → R +7.6
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +4.4
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 31¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
Endorsements · 3 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet3
Endorsements tracked
Cindy Holscher3 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total3
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DCindy Holscher3 endorsers
Most notable · John Carlin · former governor of Kansas (1979–1987)
Elected officials3
Federal 0State 3Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- John Carlin · former governor of Kansas (1979–1987)
- Lynn Rogers · former state treasurer of Kansas (2021–2023) and lieutenant governor of Kansas (2019–2021)
- Marci Francisco · state senator
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tossup1
Tossup · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Lean R3
Lean R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Cook Political Report
Lean RInside Elections
TossupRealClearPolitics
Lean RSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
13 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
13 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles13
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.15
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.15
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 15%
Neutral 85%
15% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets15%
Neutral85%
R-leaning outlets0%
15% of outlets classified by editorial lean
K
Could Kansas’ U.S. Senate race be delayed to 2028? Here’s what to know
N
Arkansas U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
T
Club for Growth affiliate attacks Kansas GOP gubernatorial candidate in $2M ad buy
K
Kansas poll of likely Democratic voters favors Holscher for governor, Hamilton for U.S. Senate
N
Kansas U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
N
Kansas poll of likely Democratic voters favors Holscher for governor, Hamilton for U.S. Senate
N
Kansas Democratic gubernatorial candidate’s union membership sparks political finger-pointing
K
Why are Kansas GOP governor candidates taking the MAGA road? | Opinion
K
Kansas Republicans could try to delay election for U.S. Senate if Roger Marshall leaves office
C
Democrats target these Kansas House races to break GOP supermajority
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements9 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage13 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks