Democratic primary · August 4, 2026
Kansas Governor Democratic primary
Field of 3 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
60
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (13.7pp).
Forecast CI width46
13.7pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution46 / 100
Measured13.7pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity75
2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution75 / 100
Measured2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 3 polls + fundamentals1Cindy HolscherCynthia L. Holscher is an American politician who served in the Kansas House of Representatives from the 16th district from 2017 to 2020, an…
2Ethan CorsonEthan Corson is an American politician and attorney who represents the 7th district in the Kansas Senate. Elected in 2020, he assumed office…
3Curt SkoogCurt Skoog is an American politician and businessperson who has served as the mayor of Overland Park, Kansas, since 2021. A member of the De…
All polls · 3 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Holscher | Corson | Skoog | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 21 | Change Research | 1,022 · LV | 37 | 10 | 7 | +27 |
| Jun 14 | Change Research | 1,022 · LV | 37 | 10 | 7 | +27 |
| Jan 8 | Public Policy Polling | 699 · unknown | 33 | 9 | — | +24 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 9 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yetEthan Corson · 6Cindy Holscher · 3
DEthan Corson6 endorsers
Most notable · David Toland · lieutenant governor of Kansas (2021–present) and secretary of commerce of Kansas (2019–present)
Elected officials3
Federal 0State 3Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- David Toland · lieutenant governor of Kansas (2021–present) and secretary of commerce of Kansas (2019–present)
- Kathleen Sebelius · former secretary of health and human services (2009–2014) and governor of Kansas (2003–2009)
- Laura Kelly · governor of Kansas (2019–present)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- AFL-CIO · Kansas
- End Citizens United
- Planned Parenthood · Great Plains
DCindy Holscher3 endorsers
Most notable · John Carlin · former governor of Kansas (1979–1987)
Elected officials3
Federal 0State 3Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- John Carlin · former governor of Kansas (1979–1987)
- Lynn Rogers · former state treasurer of Kansas (2021–2023) and lieutenant governor of Kansas (2019–2021)
- Marci Francisco · state senator
DCurt Skoog0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
In the news
13 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
13 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles13
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.15
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.15
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 15%
Neutral 85%
15% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets15%
Neutral85%
R-leaning outlets0%
15% of outlets classified by editorial lean
K
Could Kansas’ U.S. Senate race be delayed to 2028? Here’s what to know
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Arkansas U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
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Club for Growth affiliate attacks Kansas GOP gubernatorial candidate in $2M ad buy
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Kansas poll of likely Democratic voters favors Holscher for governor, Hamilton for U.S. Senate
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Kansas U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
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Kansas poll of likely Democratic voters favors Holscher for governor, Hamilton for U.S. Senate
N
Kansas Democratic gubernatorial candidate’s union membership sparks political finger-pointing
K
Why are Kansas GOP governor candidates taking the MAGA road? | Opinion
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Kansas Republicans could try to delay election for U.S. Senate if Roger Marshall leaves office
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Democrats target these Kansas House races to break GOP supermajority
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 3deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements9 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage13 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks